????有時(shí)候，研究通用汽車（General Motors）的運(yùn)營(yíng)方式就像研究那些無(wú)比復(fù)雜的陀飛輪機(jī)械手表。通用汽車就像一款做工精良的鐘表，擁有許多活動(dòng)部件，其中很多并不為人所知，其中的奧秘就是把擺輪和游絲這兩項(xiàng)運(yùn)行的關(guān)鍵與那些僅作為裝飾、甚至干擾運(yùn)行的部件分開(kāi)。

????今年五月，噴泉般涌出的新聞足以讓通用的觀察者們進(jìn)行比較、分析和評(píng)估。從一年前開(kāi)始，通用的銷量和利潤(rùn)就開(kāi)始下滑，但股價(jià)卻一路攀升，近兩年來(lái)首次超過(guò)首次公開(kāi)募股時(shí)的33美元。通用的銷量在美國(guó)有所上升，在中國(guó)大幅上升，而在歐洲卻有所下降。北美正在準(zhǔn)備盛大的新型卡車發(fā)布會(huì)，但卻額外雇傭了工人，同時(shí)推遲了日期，以保證不會(huì)出現(xiàn)任何差錯(cuò)。在流行的投資者網(wǎng)站Seeking Alpha上，愛(ài)放馬后炮的用戶對(duì)這家汽車制造商的前景有著截然不同的觀點(diǎn)。一個(gè)帖子的標(biāo)題寫(xiě)道：“通用汽車?yán)^續(xù)高奏凱歌”。另一個(gè)帖子則說(shuō)：“通用汽車：糟糕的賭注”。

????我們先來(lái)看看好消息。在美國(guó)市場(chǎng)，通用在四月份和今年前四個(gè)月的占有率都有所上升。別克（Buick）和凱迪拉克（Cadillac）生產(chǎn)線上增加了利潤(rùn)豐厚的新款轎車，帶動(dòng)了通用銷量的回升，兩系汽車銷量分別提高了23%和37%。通用還在為公司史上最大的新產(chǎn)品之一進(jìn)行運(yùn)作，先是替換了公司的全尺寸小貨車Silverado和Sierra，之后是公司的大型運(yùn)動(dòng)汽車。通用總共61%的產(chǎn)品線都將在接下來(lái)兩年改為生產(chǎn)新產(chǎn)品，經(jīng)銷商因此而興奮不已，也大大促進(jìn)了盈利。

????另一方面，通用在福特汽車（Ford）面前節(jié)節(jié)敗退。2013年，后者在美國(guó)的市場(chǎng)占有率略有提升，而第一季度的凈收入增長(zhǎng)了60%。通用用來(lái)吸引年輕顧客并滿足政府燃油標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的雪佛蘭汽車（Chevrolet）銷量卻下滑了，大肆宣傳的伏特汽車（Volt）的增長(zhǎng)速度比去年不如。《汽車新聞》（Automotive News ）報(bào)道稱，通用極其關(guān)注將要發(fā)布的卡車，甚至回聘了約100名退休工程師來(lái)監(jiān)督供應(yīng)商的工作，還將越野車的展示活動(dòng)推遲了三個(gè)月。

????歐洲市場(chǎng)依然不景氣。歐寶（Opel）/沃克斯豪爾（Vauxhall）的市場(chǎng)占有率有所提升，因?yàn)樗鼈冊(cè)谒脑碌匿N量下滑幅度要小于6%的市場(chǎng)整體水平。雪佛蘭的銷量則大幅跳水，跌幅達(dá)到27%。底特律新聞報(bào)道稱，分析人士認(rèn)為，2016年之前，通用在歐洲市場(chǎng)的表現(xiàn)都不會(huì)有整體上的改善。通用計(jì)劃在接下來(lái)三年內(nèi)向歐寶投資52.5億美元，不過(guò)歐寶在歐洲顧客中的影響力仍然遭到質(zhì)疑，而通用能否從與標(biāo)致（Peugeot）的被迫合作中獲得回報(bào)也得打個(gè)問(wèn)號(hào)。

????通用在中國(guó)的銷量超過(guò)美國(guó)，中國(guó)繼續(xù)成為它在全球的亮點(diǎn)，四月份銷量也上升15%。盡管中國(guó)白熱化的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)已經(jīng)有了減慢的征兆，通用依然計(jì)劃2016年之前在中國(guó)投資160億美元，并在不久前宣布將在上海建設(shè)新的卡迪拉克工廠，作為在接下來(lái)30個(gè)月內(nèi)將卡迪拉克銷量增至三倍計(jì)劃的一部分。同樣令人振奮的是，通用還在中國(guó)政府的政策上有所突破。中國(guó)政府本打算取消對(duì)國(guó)外汽車制造商的投資刺激，這一政策最終卻并未施行，給了通用汽車更大的施展空間。

????At times, examining the operations of General Motors (GM, Fortune 500) is like looking into of one of those insanely complicated tourbillon mechanical watches. Like a fine timepiece, GM has lots of moving pieces, many of them out of sight. The trick is to separate the balance wheel and hairspring -- parts that are essential to the operation -- from others that are merely decorative, or, at worst, distractions.

????The month of May produced a geyser of news for GM watchers to assimilate, analyze, and evaluate. Sales and earnings were down from a year ago, but share prices were up -- climbing above the $33 IPO price for the first time in two years. Sales were higher in the U.S. and much higher in China but lower in Europe. North America was preparing for a monster launch of new truck models but brought on extra workers and stretched out schedules to make sure there are no screw-ups. Second-guessers on the popular investor site Seeking Alpha are sharply divided about the automaker's prospects. "General Motors continues to roll" is the headline on one posting. Another reads: "General Motors: A Sucker's Bet."

????Let's focus first on the good news. In the U.S., GM gained market share in April and for the first four months of the year. Its sales resurgence is being led by new high-margin vehicles added to the Buick and Cadillac lines, which are up 23% and 37% respectively. GM is also mobilizing for one of the biggest new product introductions in its history, replacing first its full-size pickup trucks Silverado and Sierra, and then its big sport utilities. In all, 61% of GM's product line will turn over in the next two years, exciting dealers and giving a big boost to profits.

????On the other hand, GM is losing ground to Ford (F, Fortune 500), which has gained slightly more U.S. share in 2013 and earned 60% more in corporate net income during the first quarter. Sales of Chevrolet cars, the ones GM needs to attract younger buyers and meet government fuel economy standards, have sagged, and the much-heralded Volt is moving at a rate even slower than last year. Automotive News reports that GM is so concerned about its upcoming truck launch that it has hired back about 100 retired engineers to monitor the work of suppliers and delayed the rollout of the SUVs by three months.

????Europe remains a sinkhole. Opel/Vauxhall gained share because it lost fewer sales than an overall market that was down 6% in April , but Chevrolet got shellacked, with sales that fell 27%, and the Detroit News reports that analysts see no overall improvement in the European market until 2016. GM plans to invest $5.25 billion in Opel over the next three years, but doubts remain about the resonance of the Opel brand with European customers, as well as the eventual payoff from GM's shotgun marriage with Peugeot.

????China, where GM sells more cars than in the U.S., remains a bright spot, with sales in April rising 15%. Ignoring signs of a slowdown in China's white-hot economy, GM plans to invest $16 billion in China by 2016, and has just announced it will build a new Cadillac plant in Shanghai as part of a plan to triple Cadillac sales in the next 30 months. Equally encouraging, GM is getting some breaks from the Chinese government. It has reversed a policy that would have discontinued investment incentives for foreign automotive manufacturers, giving GM more room to maneuver.