????就像發展中國家并不寬裕的消費者直接越過固定電話，“一步到位”地選擇了移動電話一樣，中國的低收入消費者正跳過實體商店，成為電子商務網站的擁躉。

????麥肯錫公司（McKinsey & Co.）最近發布的一份報告顯示，中國去年的電商銷售額估計達到了1900億美元，幾乎與全球最大的電商市場——美國齊平。到2020年，中國的在線零售市場有望至少增長至4200億美元，屆時將超過美、日、英、德、法五國電商市場的總和。就在今年或者明年，中國預計就將超過美國成為全球最大的電子商務市場。

????在一個以不可思議的速度增長的經濟體中，電子商務也不容忽視。自2003年以來，中國的電商市場以每年120%的速度增長，遠遠高于美國17%的年增率，而且這一增長還沒有停止的跡象。

????令麥肯錫公司感興趣的不僅僅是中國電商市場的巨額增幅，除此之外，電子商務或將推動實現中國政府提出的兩大經濟目標：增加國內消費以及促進中國經濟從依賴基建向多樣化發展。在這篇題為《中國的電商革命》（China's E-tail Revolution）的報告中，作者指出，這不僅僅意味著消費者的購物場所發生了轉變，商場購物正在被取代。電子商務還驅動消費者開始購買新物品，特別是在一些欠發達的低收入城市，因為這些城市即便有大型零售門店，它們的商品也無法與在線商店的相媲美。

????總部位于北京的當當網（Dangdang）是一家與亞馬遜中國（Amazon China）相競爭的電商網站，當當網的創始人俞渝表示：“中國仍然是一個零售業很不發達的國家，而且消費者的需求總體上是很強勁的。我住在北京市中心，不管朝任何一個方向開車，一個小時之后，我還在北京市里，但是我看不見好的商店了，不管是好的超市還是好的服裝店都看不到了。”

????超過70%的中國電子商務網站采取的是C2C模式。中國也有像eBay一樣的拍賣網站，比如淘寶（Taobao）、天貓（Tmall）和拍拍（Paipai），這些網站上有好幾億件商品。有些電商網站想成為中國的亞馬遜，比如京東商城（360Buy），它們正在二線城市建立運營機構，而且分析師認為他們最終將進軍三、四線城市。

????盡管很多電商網站的下單都是通過智能手機或移動應用完成的，但是貨物的遞送流程卻采用了高科技與傳統相結合的方式——而且還非常適合中國消費者。比如京東商城的當日送達（取決于下單的時間）通常就是靠騎車的快遞小哥來送貨。

????很多小城市的消費者喜歡貨到付款，這樣做的好處是，顧客可以利用某些電商網站推出的“現場試穿”服務，在付錢之前先把網購來的東西試一下。

????麥肯錫的報告中還有一點很讓人吃驚：中國低收入城市消費者的網購支出與高收入城市消費者相差無幾，盡管他們的可支配收入要比后者低得多。在一些偏遠地區的中小城市，電子商務網站在扮演著“啟蒙者”的角色，許多消費者第一次可以隨心所欲地購買書籍、電影、服裝和其它商品。

????這意味著那些在網絡上購買新產品的低收入消費者，正在發揮越來越大的力量，推動著國民經濟前進——盡管有人可能懷疑中國究竟能否轉型成一個消費型經濟體。對于中國來說，如果中國能變成全世界的電子商務之都，這可能就是最好的消息。（財富中文網）

????譯者：樸成奎

????Just as cash-strapped consumers in the developing world bypassed so-called landline phones in favor of mobile devices, so China's lower-income consumers are skipping physical stores in favor of e-commerce sites.

????A recent report by McKinsey & Co. shows that e-commerce sales in China reached an estimated $190 billion last year, almost equaling the U.S. market as largest in the world. China's online retail industry is expected to grow to at least $420 billion by 2020 -- which would total more than the U.S., Japanese, U.K., German, and French markets combined. China will overtake the U.S. for the top spot next year, if it hasn't already.

????In an economy known for astonishing growth, e-commerce stands out. China's market has grown at a 120% annualized clip since 2003 compared to the U.S.'s 17% growth rate. It shows no signs of stopping.

????What interests McKinsey isn't just the massive growth -- it's the potential for e-commerce to drive the government's goal of increasing domestic consumption and diversifying the world's No. 2 economy from a reliance on infrastructure projects. The authors of the report, titled "China's E-tail Revolution," conclude that consumers are more than replacing what they might buy at the mall. E-commerce is driving consumers to buy new stuff, especially in the so-called lower-tier, lower-income cities where physical retail stores, if they exist at all, don't have anywhere near the same selection as online marketplaces.

????"China remains an under-retailed country, and customers' needs are very strong overall," says Peggy Yu Yu, co-founder of Dangdang, a Beijing-based e-commerce site that competes with Amazon China. "I live [in] downtown Beijing, and I drive any direction, and one hour later, still within Beijing, I don't see good stores anymore, be it supermarket or clothing store."

????More than 70% of China's e-commerce business is consumer to consumer. eBay-like (EBAY) auction sites called Taobao, Tmall, and Paipai host hundreds of millions of listings. But Amazon (AMZN) wannabes such as 360Buy are setting up operations in second-tier cities, and analysts believe they'll eventually start moving into third- and fourth-tier cities.

????While the ordering process on many e-commerce sites is done via mobile phones and apps, distribution is often a combination of high-tech and old-fashioned customers service -- which suits Chinese consumers just fine. 360buy, for example, offers same-day delivery (depending on when the order is placed) often via bike messenger.

????Consumers in smaller cities like to pay via cash on delivery; one upside is that the customer can try on their wares before making payment, employing what's been called the "mobile fitting room" option.

????What's surprising in the McKinsey report is that consumers in China's lower-tier cities actually spend as much online as higher-tier cities even though their consumers have far less disposable income. In the small and mid-size cities dotting the countryside, e-commerce sites are proving a revelation. Many consumers can now buy books, movies, clothes, and other goods for the first time.

????That means lower-income consumers who shop for newly available goods online are increasingly propelling the economy forward, even as some are skeptical that China can transition into a consumption economy. For China, as it becomes the e-commerce capital of the world, that might be the best news of all.