????坦率地說，Tumblr的確有一些令人印象深刻的用戶統計數據。comScore表示，截至4月，Tumblr擁有1.08億博客賬號，獨立訪問用戶高達1.17億。而測評網站Quantcast的數據顯示，Tumblr的每月訪問量高達160億次。但不幸的是，Tumblr并未發布任何分析報告，甚至在自家博客上也看不到。所以，我們真的很難確定Tumblr的社群如今到底發展得如何，到底哪些類型的輕博客在吸引最多的用戶，產生最大的收益。Tumblr在時尚界的粉絲很多，因為用戶能很便捷地發布和轉帖照片，雖然Pintrest等競爭對手在此方面更勝一籌，但Tumblr也做得不錯了。

????雅虎股東應該擔心的，是Tumblr向來不善于利用其網站內容賺錢。比如2011年紐約時裝周期間，Tumblr試圖讓廣告商花15-35萬美元在橫幅廣告上，這一荒唐之舉在整個廣告界掀起軒然大波。此外，Tumblr還試圖為該網站上熱門的時尚博主拉皮條，廣告主只要掏1萬美金，就能與這些博主們獨處。而最麻煩的是，Tumblr在移動廣告領域還沒有任何成果。該公司上個月才剛開始在移動網絡上做廣告，而且還是以內部測試的形式。

????Tumblr的風險投資方包括紅杉資本（Union Square）、星火資本（Spark Capital）、合廣投資（Union Square Ventures）以及格雷洛克合伙公司（Greylock Partners）。為何Tumblr一開始利用其內容賺錢，上述投資方就同意出售該公司？要知道，Tumblr網站的頁面訪問量和獨立訪客數量都相當高，其錢途看起來一片大好，不是嗎？這個嘛，其實關鍵是看廣告商是否想與Tumblr扯上關系。事實上，Tumblr有一個秘密，該網站是一個虛擬倉庫，里面色情照片堆積如山。Tumblr允許用戶跟蹤并創建特定的色情流派。Tumblr中大量色情圖片似乎是非法截取自其它網站，其發布并未經版權持有人許可。

????色情圖片吸引了大量眼球，但廣告商拒絕與之扯上關系。目前尚不清楚雅虎將如何處置Tumblr上這些色情圖片。假如將其取締，Tumblr的頁面訪問量和訪客數量都可能下降。而假如保留這些圖片，那么該公司可能將面臨眾多版權官司，并使得廣告商們紛紛離去。當然，谷歌（Google）當初收購YouTube時也曾面臨一些類似的挑戰，后來這些問題差不多都解決了。任何大手筆的收購都存在風險。

????最重要的是，雅虎在確定該交易的支付方式時本該聰明點。它應該以現金加分期授予的股票進行支付，以規避風險。當初Facebook豪擲10億美元收購Instagram時就是這么干的。在那筆成為新聞頭條的交易中，Facebook支付了3億美元現金，另外7億美元是以Facebook的股票進行支付——去年Facebook上市后，其股票價值已經大幅縮水。現金加股票支付比全部支付現金要聰明，因為這使得Facebook的成功與資產價值掛鉤。

????梅耶爾多次談到她想使雅虎再度成為一家創新性公司。收購Tumblr很可能最終將令梅耶爾大失所望。目前，股東們仍相信梅耶爾手里還有從谷歌帶來的萬靈藥，能幫助雅虎扭轉局面。但梅耶爾不應該再讓股東們久等。（財富中文網）

????譯者：項航

????To be fair, Tumblr does have some impressive user statistics. Around 117 million visitors stumbled upon one of Tumblr's 108 million blogs in April, according to comScore. That added up to 16 billion monthly page views according to Quantcast. Unfortunately, Tumblr doesn't release any analytics, even to its own blogs, so it is really tough to figure out how widespread the community is at this point or what genre of microblogs command the most attention and value. It has a strong following in the fashion community because it is pretty easy to post and repost pictures -- not as easily as some of its competitors, like Pintrest, but easy nonetheless.

????What should disturb Yahoo shareholders is the company's track record when it comes to trying to monetize its content. For example, in 2011 at New York's Fashion Week, Tumblr tried to get advertisers to spend a ridiculous $150,000 to $350,000 on banner ads, causing an uproar across the advertising community. It also tried to pimp out popular Tumblr fashion bloggers, offering advertisers special alone time with them for a mere $10,000. Most troubling? Tumblr's track record when it comes to mobile advertising: It has none. The company only started advertising on the mobile web last month in a limited beta test.

????Why would Tumblr's venture funders, which include the likes of Sequoia Capital, Spark Capital, Union Square Ventures, and Greylock Partners, agree to sell the company the second it started to monetize its content? With all those impressive stats on page views and unique viewers it sounds like Tumblr could be a goldmine, right? Well, that all depends on whether advertisers actually want to be associated with Tumblr. Indeed Tumblr has a secret -- it is a virtual warehouse for mountains and mountains of porn. Tumblr allows people to follow and create very specific prurient subgenres. A great deal of Tumblr porn appears to be illegally lifted from other websites and posted without the permission of the copyright holders.

????Porn draws in a lot of eyeballs, but advertisers refuse to be associated with it. It is unclear what Yahoo will do with all the Tumblr porn. Take it away and chances are those page views and visitor numbers will fall. Keep them up and the company will be exposing itself to a number of copyright lawsuits and will cause advertisers to run as fast as they can in the other direction. Of course, Google's acquisition of YouTube presented some similar challenges that have, more or less been worked out. Any big acquisition carries risks.

????The bottom line? Yahoo could have been smarter about how it paid for the deal. It should have hedged its bets and paid with a mix of cash and stock that vested overtime. That's what Facebook (FB) did when it acquired Instagram for the headline number of $1 billion. It paid with $300 million in cash and $700 million in Facebook stock -- stock which has collapsed in value since the company went public last year. That was smarter than paying all cash because it linked Facebook's success to the value of the asset.

????Mayer has talked a great deal of how she wants to make Yahoo an innovative company again. This move could very well end up being that smash success she needs. For now, shareholders still believe she has enough of that Google fairy dust in her pocket to turn the company around. But Mayer shouldn't test their patience.