????（4）很多Tumblr用戶都對廣告很不感冒。我會把這個(gè)問題留給山姆?比德爾在“硅谷閑話”博客上來解釋。

????（5）我們現(xiàn)在還不清楚Tumblr是否具有可持續(xù)的競爭優(yōu)勢。根據(jù)我的媒體戰(zhàn)略管理教授布魯斯?格林沃德有關(guān)于競爭和媒體的著作，如果Tumblr既沒有可持續(xù)的競爭優(yōu)勢，也不能阻止后來者進(jìn)入它的市場，那么這筆收購就說不通。今天的Tumblr雖然很出色，是個(gè)卓越的博客平臺，但并不代表明天它也出色、也卓越。在過去十年里，Blogger和WordPress都曾達(dá)到Tumblr今天的地位，后來都銷聲匿跡了。我相信Tumblr所在的市場空間的準(zhǔn)入門檻很低，使它很容易受市場新進(jìn)者影響。因此，我們現(xiàn)在很難精確預(yù)計(jì)Tumblr的增長率。

????這真是一個(gè)艱難的決定。假設(shè)這筆交易最終成交了，只有未來才能證明，當(dāng)初支持這筆交易的種種理論和預(yù)測究竟算是遠(yuǎn)見卓識，還是一葉障目乃至是徹底的幻覺。像大多數(shù)事情一樣，它可能會落在兩者之間的什么地方。

????對我來說，戰(zhàn)略性的擔(dān)憂壓倒了數(shù)學(xué)運(yùn)算上的樂觀。雅虎團(tuán)隊(duì)要想做出這筆收購很容易，但這樣一來，無論是從現(xiàn)金、投資者還是從文化的角度，下一筆收購就要難得多了。

????與其收購Tumblr，我認(rèn)為雅虎倒不如不要把現(xiàn)金花在購買點(diǎn)擊量上，而是要圍繞自己擅長的展示業(yè)務(wù)，通過收購或者研發(fā)建立某種不容易讓后來者進(jìn)入的壁壘（也就是巴菲特的壁壘理論）。這可能需要在產(chǎn)品和工藝上進(jìn)行深入投資，以及對廣告科技企業(yè)進(jìn)行戰(zhàn)略性收購。

????這些行為可能看起來不那么抓人眼球，但它們有可能會讓雅虎在今后20年里再次振興。而對于眼下這筆交易，由于存在各種固有的戰(zhàn)略風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，很難看出收購Tumblr如何能建立雅虎真正需要的戰(zhàn)略壁壘。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

????本文作者John Saroff是紐約市的一名媒體和科技高管，他曾是谷歌電視廣告業(yè)務(wù)的戰(zhàn)略伙伴關(guān)系負(fù)責(zé)人。

????譯者：樸成奎

????4. Many tumblrs are unhospitable to advertising. I'll leave it to Sam Biddle over at Valleywag toexplain why.

????5. It is unclear if Tumblr has a sustainable competitive advantage. Channeling the lessons of my strategic management of media professor Bruce Greenwald and his books on competition and media, none of this makes sense if Tumblr doesn't have a sustainable competitive advantage and barriers for new entrants to enter its market. Just because Tumblr is wonderful and the preeminent blogging platform today doesn't mean it will be tomorrow. Over the course of the last ten years Blogger and WordPress have held the position that Tumblr holds now. I believe that the space in which Tumblr operates has very low barriers to entry, making Tumblr very susceptible to new entrants. This makes the growth rate very hard to predict with any degree of certainty.

????This is a tough call. Assuming the deal goes through, only the future will show whether the rationale and the projections that back it up are vision, delusion or hallucination. Like most things, the math behind the rationale and the projections will probably end up somewhere in the middle.

????To me, the strategic concerns overwhelm the math. Team Yahoo can make this acquisition easily, but it makes the next one harder from a cash, investor and culture perspective.

????Instead of Tumblr, I propose that Yahoo focus its cash not on bulk of pageviews, but on acquisitions and R&D that erect barriers to entry (Buffett's famous moat) around its already robust display business. Those likely take the form of deep investments in the product and engineering corps and strategic acquisitions of adtech businesses.

????Those maneuvers will be less sexy, but they have the potential to reinvigorate Yahoo for the next twenty years. It is hard to see how, with all of the strategic risks inherent in the deal, acquiring Tumblr builds the moat for Yahoo that I believe it needs.

????John Saroff (@saroff_nyc) is a media and tech executive based in New York City, and is a former head of strategic partnerships for Google's TV ads business.