特斯拉價格保衛戰
????上周三,特斯拉汽車公司(Tesla Motors)發布了第一季度財報,引起了不小的轟動。不過這家豪華電動汽車制造商正繼續遭到抨擊。 ????美國政府為特斯拉汽車的買家提供7500美元的稅收減免,不過面對超過7萬美元的特斯拉S型車,只有富人才享受得起這一優惠。美國能源部還給這家位于加州帕洛阿爾托的公司4.65億美元的貸款擔保,這樣做相當于補貼了富有的特斯拉車主,卻將納稅人的錢財置于危險之中,也就難怪許多人對政府的“補貼富人購車”政策表示憤怒。 ????盡管如此,事實在于,將特斯拉賣給富人,也許是將來普及電動汽車的最好方式,也是美國擺脫對石油依賴的最好辦法,這背后蘊含著國家安全和經濟利益的因素。 ????國內石油產量的增加,讓美國經濟收益頗豐。但美國耗油量太大,使得國家在原油價格面前脆弱不堪。由于生物燃料和燃料電池的發展步履蹣跚,電動汽車也許是最好的解決方法之一。 ????不過電動汽車也面臨著大量的艱難困阻。它們缺乏傳統汽車擁有的規模經濟和性能記錄,也沒有因為一百多年的市場競爭而使技術成本下降的經驗。盡管實驗室里的研究人員也許能實現技術上的重大突破,但若想讓更多電動汽車駛上馬路,還要解決如何高效地批量生產、如何拓展新的營銷渠道、如何構建充電站網絡以免車主燃料耗盡等關鍵問題。 ????盡管如此,這些早期的車輛將成為利基市場的一部分,且以高價售賣。富人們自然成為其目標消費群體。 ????以移動電話為例。摩托羅拉(Motorola)1982年發布的DynaTAC 8000X售價3995美元(相當于今天的近1萬美元)。在1987年的電影《華爾街》(Wall Street)中,手持這部巨大手機的戈登?杰科代表了手機用戶的普遍形象:富有、傲慢、無禮。到了1998年,諾基亞(Nokia)6160(20世紀90年代最流行的手機款式)價格為900美元,依然讓大多數顧客望而卻步。直到21世紀以來,手機行業實現了突飛猛進的進步,才不再被當作奢侈品,價格便宜到能讓普通大眾接受。 ????手機花了20年左右的時間,從高端產品市場來到大眾市場,而它本身也發生了改變。最初的摩托羅拉DynaTAC長逾一英寸,重逾兩磅,電池僅能支持一個小時;而如今,你花上20美元,就能買到比你手掌還小、重量只有兩盎司的手機。 |
????Tesla Motors made news last Wednesday when it posted its first quarterly profit. But the maker of luxury electric vehicles continues to come under fire. ????The U.S. government gives a $7,500 tax credit to anyone who buys one of its cars, but at more than $70,000 for a Model S sedan, only the rich can afford to benefit. The Department of Energy has also provided the Palo Alto, Calif.-based company with a $465 million loan guarantee, which boosts returns for Tesla's wealthy owners while putting taxpayers' money at risk. No wonder many are furious with Washington for "subsidizing cools cars for rich people." ????The truth, though, is that selling Teslas (TSLA) to wealthy people today may be the best way to get electric cars to everyone tomorrow, and for the United States to eventually reduce its dependence on oil, with all the national security and economic benefits that entails. ????The U.S. economy is making big gains as domestic oil production rises, but high U.S. oil use leaves the nation vulnerable to dangerous spikes in the price of crude. With biofuels and fuel cells both faltering, electric cars may be one of the best ways out. ????But electric cars face a massive uphill battle. They lack the economies of scale and track record that traditional cars enjoy. They don't have the hundred-plus years of experience that's allowed their competitors to bring technology costs down. And while some big advances will come from people tinkering in labs, getting more electric cars onto the road is essential to figuring out how to manufacture lots of them efficiently, develop new ways to finance sales, and engineer networks of charging stations so that drivers don't run out of fuel. ????Those initial cars, though, will be part of a niche market and come at a premium price. And the wealthy are a natural target market. ????Take the cellular telephone. The Motorola DynaTAC 8000X, released in 1982, sold for $3,995 (equivalent to nearly $10,000 today). Gordon Gecko, who carried one of the behemoths around in the 1987 movie Wall Street, typified the cell phone user: rich, arrogant, brash. As late as 1998, the Nokia 6160 (the most popular cell phone model of the 1990s) sold for $900, well beyond the reach of most consumers. It was not until the 2000s that cell phones, which improved dramatically while they were considered a luxury good, became cheap enough for mass adoption. ????During the 20 or so years that it took the cell phone to move from high-end product to mass market, the phones themselves transformed too. The DynaTAC was more than a foot long, weighed over two pounds, and had a one-hour battery life; today, you can buy a two-ounce phone that's smaller than your palm for $20. |