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硬件革命時代到來

硬件革命時代到來

John Hagel,John Seely Brown 2013-05-13
3D打印機等設備的逐漸普及給硬件設計與生產領域帶來了重大轉變,推動了“制造者運動”的迅速成熟,全民制造的時代正在向我們走來。未來,下一代的“殺手級”硬件很有可能將從一家小創業公司里誕生。

????僅僅幾年前,要想設計、制造和推廣像蘋果(Apple)iPhone這樣改變了游戲規則的產品,可能得需要一個龐大的商業帝國群策群力。而在今天,更讓人興奮的是,小人物也更有希望創造這種奇跡。

????許多人已經注意到了硬件領域近年來出現的一種變化,同時也注意到一批新型、小型的公司正在崛起。克里斯?安德森在他的新書《制造者:新工業革命》(Makers: The New Industrial Revolution)一書中以大量篇幅寫到了所謂“制造者運動”的興起。保羅?格拉罕姆最近的論文《硬件復興》(The Hardware Renaissance)也提到,在風投基金Y Combinator最近一輪投資的84家創業公司中,有7家都在做硬件,數量有一定提高。艾里克?斯科恩菲爾德在他的博客中寫道,“硬件是新的軟件,”并稱風投機構也在更加積極地尋找做硬件的創業公司進行投資。

????硬件領域的這些發展,有一部分是由于科技的價格和性能的改善。像3D打印機、數控鏤銑機和激光切割機等工業設備原先只有高端的設計團隊才能使用得到,而現在它們已經變成了消費性產品。一款入門級的3D打印機的價格已經降到不到1,000美元。另外像,馬達、控制設備以及像Arduino(一種幫助計算機與實體世界進行互動的工具)等硬件產品的零部件的功能也變得越來越強大,同時價格卻越來越低廉。

????軟件方面,我們也有了價格低廉甚至完全免費的CAD制圖軟件。甚至還有一款移動應用可以通過手機攝像頭來捕捉物體的3D圖像,以便進行3D打印。

????基礎設施領域出現的一些新元素也有助于使一些新硬件產品走出業余愛好者的地下室,進入創業公司的設計室。比如在以前,要想獲得合約制造商的關注,就得保證你能下一個大訂單(比如生產5萬個以上的產品)。但是隨著一批新型工廠的出現(其中的大多數在中國和墨西哥),就算每批只有5,000個產品的小訂單也有人愿意接。如此一來,這些工廠填補了市場的一個重要的結構性空白,使企業家可以以較小的投資,推出某些面向較小眾消費群體的新產品。另外像Kickstarter等新型融資平臺以及愿意銷售數量較低的產品的新型在線推廣渠道也降低了行業的門檻。

????以上這些新發展為經典的顛覆式創新模式提供了正確的要素。而所謂經典的顛覆式創新模式一般是指從向某個尚未被開發的小眾市場提供商品開始,然后漸漸將生意做大,直至取代一個規模更大的競爭對手。同時這些新的發展也為一些新型企業打開了一扇門。它們不必把規模做得很大,就能做到非常盈利。個人或小型設計團隊可以專門針對市場的某個有利可圖的領域設計產品,同時還可避免高額的店面費用和生產成本。

????不過科技和基礎設施并不是推動硬件進步的唯一因素。“制造者運動”的興起也離不開人才的興起。我們已經關注到了所謂“創造空間”的出現。“創造空間”指的就是能夠支持和鼓勵學習與進步氛圍的社群、網絡與文化。我們在從藝術到職業電子競技再到極限運動等很多領域都發現了這種現象,人們在這些領域中努力做著以前從來沒有人去做的事。而且我們發現,在這些創造空間里還存在著某些共性元素:

????Just a few years ago, it would have taken a corporate empire to design, build, and market a hardware game-changer like Apple's (AAPL) iPhone. Today, there's far more hope -- and excitement -- surrounding the little guy, and for good reason.

????Many people have noted a shift in the hardware landscape and the emergence of new, smaller companies. In his book Makers: The New Industrial Revolution, Chris Anderson writes extensively about the rise of the "Maker Movement." Paul Graham's recent essay "The Hardware Renaissance" mentions the recent uptick (7 out of the latest class of 84) in hardware startups at Y Combinator. In his blog, Erick Schonfeld wrote that "Hardware is the New Software," and that VCs are pursuing hardware startups more aggressively as well.

????The developments in the hardware space are in part driven by the improving price and performance of technology. Industrial tools, such as 3-D printers, CNC routers, and laser cutters, which were previously only available to high-end design teams, are becoming consumer products. An entry level 3-D printer costs less than $1,000. The components for hardware products, such as motors, control devices, and Arduinos (tools to help computers interact with the physical world), are all increasingly powerful and affordable as well.

????On the software front, there are intuitive CAD programs available for modest prices or for free. There's even an app that uses a cellphone camera to capture 3-D images of objects so they can be 3-D printed.

????New infrastructural elements have also helped new hardware products move from the hobbyist's basement to the startup garage. Before, to get a contract manufacturer's attention, you had to commit to producing high volumes (say 50,000 or more units). But a new class of factories -- mostly in China and Mexico -- will manufacture batches as small as 5,000 units. By filling low-volume orders, these factories have filled an important structural hole in the market: They allow entrepreneurs to launch new products for small consumer groups with little investment. And new funding platforms such as Kickstarter and online distribution channels (also amenable to selling products at low volumes) have decreased barriers to entry.

????These developments have provided the right ingredients for the classic model of disruptive innovation: Start by providing a new product to a niche, underserved market and then scale to displace a larger competitor. They have also opened the door for new businesses that can be highly profitable without scaling. Individuals or small design teams can design niche products to cherry-pick profitable sections out of a market while avoiding the high overhead of storefronts and manufacturing.

????But the advances in hardware haven't been driven by technology and infrastructure alone. The "maker movement" has been driven by a flourishing of talent. We've watched the emergence of what we call creation spaces: communities, networks, and cultures that encourage learning and improvement. We've observed this phenomenon in many fields, from the arts to professional gaming to extreme sports -- fields where people are striving to do things that have never been done before. Here are some of the common elements we've found among these creation spaces:

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