????蘋果公司（Apple）目前推出了一則全新的廣告，其中只有一句簡(jiǎn)單的話：“每一天，用iPhone拍攝的照片數(shù)量超過任何相機(jī)所拍。”

????簡(jiǎn)潔、緊湊而精煉的表達(dá)。廣告本身也很優(yōu)美。

????當(dāng)我看到這則廣告時(shí)，它手法簡(jiǎn)樸、人性化的剪輯風(fēng)格給我的第一反應(yīng)是單純的感動(dòng)。

????但再細(xì)想，我就想到了柯達(dá)公司（Kodak）。多年來，柯達(dá)一度一直是攝影領(lǐng)域的霸主。當(dāng)攝影技術(shù)開始從模擬膠片向數(shù)字化發(fā)展的時(shí)候，柯達(dá)只是做了一些微不足道的嘗試就算是加入了這股潮流，但總的來說是遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)落在人后了。在柯達(dá)發(fā)展的黃金年代，攝影的消費(fèi)就是類似“剃刀/刀片”的模式，柯達(dá)靠賣膠卷賺得盆滿缽滿。而當(dāng)膠片從“必不可少”變成“懷舊必備”后，柯達(dá)就再也無法東山再起了。

????如果讀了《創(chuàng)新者的困境》（Innovator's Dilemma）或是一些風(fēng)投的博客，就難免會(huì)從理論上認(rèn)為，柯達(dá)本應(yīng)該推出一個(gè)子品牌在技術(shù)變革期實(shí)現(xiàn)過渡。教條主義束縛了手腳……只為了在數(shù)碼攝影轉(zhuǎn)型期養(yǎng)精蓄銳伺機(jī)再起。

????不過，在柯達(dá)這個(gè)案例上，這個(gè)理論上的脫困辦法最終也會(huì)宣告失敗。手機(jī)！這才是當(dāng)今拍照的利器。柯達(dá)本應(yīng)該看到，這些手機(jī)才是未來大眾青睞的相機(jī)，從而做出重大決策，為公司節(jié)約成本。

????Apple (AAPL) is running a new ad in which there is one simple line of dialog: " Every day, more photos are taken with the iPhone than any other camera."

????Simple, tight, concise message. And the ad is beautiful.

????When I saw this ad, my first reaction was a simple, emotional response to the raw, human editing style.

????But then on further reflection, I thought of Kodak. For years, Kodak was a dominant brand in photography. As photography started to move from analog film to digital, Kodak made small attempts to participate in the shift, but were largely left behind. In Kodak's prime, photography was a "razor / razorblade" model and Kodak was minting money selling film. When film went from "essential" to "nostalgic" the company never recovered.

????After reading the Innovator's Dilemma or a few VC blog posts, one could expound academically that Kodak should have tried to launch a sub-brand to make the transition through technology disruption. Textbook encumbant behavior… in order to live to fight another day in the digital photography transition.

????But, even that academic approach would have ultimately failed in this case. A phone! That's the dominant camera choice today. Kodak needed to make critical, company-saving decisions by seeing that one of these was going to be everyone's camera in the future:

????柯達(dá)怎么可能預(yù)見到手機(jī)將成為自己需要殊死一搏的對(duì)手呢？他們完全沒有勝算。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

????安德魯?帕克是風(fēng)投公司Spark Capital的掌門人，致力于消費(fèi)者服務(wù)領(lǐng)域中的技術(shù)應(yīng)用層面。本篇博文最初是在他的博客發(fā)表的。

????譯者：清遠(yuǎn)

????How could Kodak possibly have the foresight to battle a phone? They never stood a chance.

????Andrew Parker (@andrewparker) is a principal with VC firm Spark Capital, where he focuses on the applications layer of the technology stack in consumer services. This post originally appeared on his blog.