????現實情況下，會有更多因素影響阿里巴巴的市值。馬云必須抓住股市周期與技術周期的時機。阿里巴巴有許多外國投資者，因此，它最有可能在海外市場上市。而在外國市場，股票投資者往往會受到自身對中國的法規、經濟與會計實務看法的影響。百度（Baidu）、人人（Renren）和新浪（Sina）等公司的估值所表現出的搖擺不定通常很難用各公司基本業務的表現來解釋。

????估值變化很快。2010年底，Facebook在融資時的估值為500億美元，而在2012年IPO時則達到了1,040億美元；但目前，它的股價僅有當初估值的三分之二。最近，雅虎（Yahoo）將手頭持有的阿里巴巴股份中的一半出售給了阿里巴巴公司，交易對公司市值的認定是400億美元。然而，與一家陷入困境的美國公司進行雙邊談判跟上市比起來完全是兩碼事。

????此外，互聯網公司的性質決定了它內在的不穩定性。超強的盈利能力也會吸引超強的競爭對手，而且顛覆性技術可能在突然之間就取代了業已成熟的模式。當年的網景（Netscape）和微軟（Microsoft）就充分證明，想象中不可動搖的市場地位可能瞬間就會易手。如果公司估值能夠達到十二位數，上市就宜早不宜遲。（財富中文網）

????譯者：劉進龍/汪皓

????In reality, many more factors will affect Alibaba's magic number. Ma will need to time the stock market cycle, but also the tech cycle. With many foreign backers, Alibaba will most likely need to list on foreign markets, where stock buyers will be influenced by what they think of China's regulation, economy and accounting practices. Valuations for companies like Baidu, Renren and Sina show gyrations not always explained by the performance of their underlying businesses.

????Valuations change quickly. Facebook's went from $50 billion in its fundraising at the end of 2010 to $104 billion at its IPO in 2012; the company now trades at just two-thirds that value. When Yahoo (YHOO) recently sold half its Alibaba stake back to the company, the deal valued the company at just $40 billion. But a bilateral negotiation by with a troubled U.S. company is very different than a stock market listing.

????Besides, internet companies are inherently volatile. Super profitability attracts super competition, and disruptive technologies can take even established models by surprise. Netscape and Microsoft both showed how supposedly unassailable market positions can be lost as well as won. If a twelve-digit valuation is within reach, it makes sense for Alibaba to open the cave sooner rather than later.