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彭博要不要提防Twitter

彭博要不要提防Twitter

Omar Akhtar 2013-04-26
彭博社一直是金融、銀行、證券和其他專業人士在財經數據、新聞與分析方面的首選。但是現在,隨著Twitter的崛起,Dataminr等社交媒體數據分析公司正依靠發布速度向彭博社發起挑戰。

????彭博社(Bloomberg)長期以來一直以身為財經數據、新聞與分析的首要提供商而自豪,但它可以在提供新聞的速度上跟勝過社交媒體嗎?

????投資者根據行業新聞而迅速作出相應的決策,數百萬美元就會因此而轉手。這就是為什么投資者愿意每年支付20,000美元的費用來使用彭博終端系統。構成彭博社核心業務的這項服務聚合了來自1,000多家新聞機構和90,000家網站的信息。這些信息對那些希望為自己的投資策略搶占優勢的客戶而言至關重要。一些公司——比如總部位于紐約的初創公司Dataminr——聲稱,他們可以獲取、分析社交媒體上提供的信息,以比各大通訊社更快的速度來提供影響市場走勢的重要信息。

????4月23日,黑客入侵美聯社(AP)官方Twitter帳戶,詐稱白宮受到攻擊。隨后數秒鐘之內,道瓊斯工業平均指數便暴跌146點。雖然在這個騙局被揭穿之后股市迅速回升,但這起事件表明,現在有許多華爾街交易員依靠Twitter獲取交易信息。

????Dataminr表示,它能夠在重大新聞發布前兩分鐘就提醒客戶小心騙局。這家初創公司與Twitter建立了合作關系,可以獲得Twitter平臺上每日近4億條Twitter短信的全部“流水”記錄。它設置了事件檢測軟件,可以查閱整個Twitter圈(Twittersphere),來識別與其客戶設置的監視名單上列出的話題、行業或公司相吻合的活動熱點或新出現的趨勢。這家公司表示,通過這種方式,它可以向政府機構或金融公司提供有用的信息。

????這家公司在發現前美國國防部官員發布的一條Twitter消息之后,成為最先報道奧薩馬?本?拉登被擊斃消息的實體之一。在又出現19條涉及這個話題的Twitter短消息之后,該公司便向其客戶發出了提醒消息,在這些客戶收到這個消息的20分鐘之后,傳統新聞網站才發布了這個消息。(Dataminr發言人沒有對就此事予以置評的要求作出回應。)

????在納秒必爭才能獲得優勢的新聞報道行業里,從一個沒有多少地域限制的龐大網絡中獲得實時新聞和數據至為關鍵。比如,一家煉油廠發生火災會促使汽油價格短暫飆升。雖然通訊社會在事件發生數分鐘之后報道這個新聞,但來自事件實發現場的Twitter短消息可以實時提醒投資者,從而讓他們可以在市場上完成一筆賺錢的交易。

????除了速度之外,Twitter數據分析還有望為各大公司提供所謂的情緒分析——即對人們的感覺進行估量。這種分析可以實時進行,不僅估量消費者對整個市場的“情緒”,而且還可以估量人們對具體的市場營銷活動、產品發布及個人代言作出的反應。2010年,美國印第安納大學(Indiana University)信息學教授約翰?博倫發表了一份研究報告。報告發現,Twitter上的社會情緒可以預測道瓊斯工業平均指數的波動,而且準確率驚人地高達87%。博倫說:“Twitter平臺絕對是一個非常有影響力的環境,社交媒體網站上的用戶成為傳感器。確實有群體智慧這回事。”

????Bloomberg LP has long prided itself on being the premier provider of financial data, news, and analytics, but can it deliver news faster than social media?

????Millions of dollars can change hands through the rapid decisions investors make based on industry news. It's why they're willing to pay an average of $20,000 a year to use a Bloomberg terminal. The service, which makes up Bloomberg's core business, aggregates information from more than 1,000 news organizations and 90,000 websites, vital to clients looking for any kind of advantage for their investment strategies. Companies like New York-based startup Dataminr claim they can deliver market-moving information faster than the newswires by accessing and analyzing information available on social media.

????Yesterday the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 146 points within seconds after a hacked AP account falsely claimed the White House was under attack. While the market recovered quickly after the hoax was exposed, it showed just how many Wall Street traders were now relying on Twitter for trading information.

????Dataminr says it was able to alert its clients to the hoax a full two minutes ahead of major news. The startup has partnered with Twitter to access the entire "firehose" of nearly 400 million daily tweets on the platform. It implements event detection software that trawls the Twittersphere to identify hotspots of activity or emerging trends that match its client's watchlist of topics, industries or companies. In this way, it says it can provide useful information to governments or finance firms.

????The company was one of the first entities to report the news of Osama Bin Laden's death after spotting a tweet by a former Defense Department official. It only took 19 more tweets about the subject before the company sent an alert out to its clients, who received the news 20 minutes before it broke on traditional news sites. (Dataminr representatives did not respond to request for comment.)

????Access to real-time news and data from a massive network with few geographic restrictions is crucial in a practice where an edge is gained by nanoseconds. For example, a fire at an oil refinery could briefly spike the price of gasoline. While it could take newswires several minutes to report the story, tweets from the actual incident could alert investors in real time and allow them to make a profitable trade.

????In addition to speed, Twitter analytics promise to provide companies with so-called sentiment analysis -- a measure of how people feel. This can be done in real time, gauging not just the broad market "mood" of consumers, but also people's reactions to marketing campaigns, product introductions, and personal endorsements. In 2010, Indiana University informatics professor Johan Bollen published a study that found social sentiment on Twitter could predict swings in the Dow Jones Industrial Average with a startling 87% accuracy. "It's definitely a very powerful environment, you have people acting as human sensors," says Bollen. "There is such a thing as the wisdom of the crowd."

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