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送走老掌門,Groupon有望迎來第二春

送走老掌門,Groupon有望迎來第二春

JP Mangalindan 2013-04-26
幾年前,收入狀況沒有急轉直下之前,Groupon一直是投資者的寵兒。然而,這個問題纏身的團購網站先鋒最終還是被迫炒了自己首席執行官的魷魚。如今,它迎來了兩位新的CEO。充分利用現有優勢,Groupon依然有機會重現輝煌。

????當年,團購網站Groupon還是創業典型,創始人兼前任CEO安德魯?梅森經常出現在雜志封面,宣傳每日特惠的好處——比如大幅折扣的按摩服務、晚餐和旅行產品等。如今,對于梅森及其當年的同事來說,這些似乎已經成為遙遠的記憶。

????四年半以前,梅森成立了Groupon。如今,Groupon成了被炒作的互聯網寵兒。然而,擴張太快,商業模式不透明,幾乎不存在毛利潤,更不用因為嫌賺錢太少,滿心不高興的合伙人,這一切讓這家公司變成了行業內的失敗典型。更糟糕的是如雨后春筍般出現的競爭對手,比如LivingSocial。后者突然出現,以同樣極低的價格提供類似的交易。【實際上,早在2011年,弗雷斯特研究公司(Forrester Research)就曾認為,Groupon的資質存在重大問題,“是一個很快就會被曝光的托兒。”】

????高德納研究公司(Gartner Research)分析師基恩?阿爾瓦雷斯從一開始就不看好Groupon。確實,消費者能得到很大的實惠,商家在非高峰期也可以獲得更多顧客。然而,這種做法仍不足以使顧客成為回頭客,按全價購買之前用5折優惠價就能買到的產品。阿爾瓦雷斯反問:“如果我是一名商人,而且我已經知道如何操作5折優惠價策略,那還有什么會阻止我繼續打折促銷呢?”對許多商人來說,打折只會產生同樣的效果(或同樣沒有效果)。

????所以,當Groupon報告稱,2012年公司年收入為23.3億美元,而凈虧損則為6,740萬美元時,不要大驚小怪。二月,公司報告稱第四季度的財務狀況未達到分析師預期——致使Groupon的股票下跌了20%——最終迫使梅森被解雇。據稱,自去年晚些時候,投資者們一直在呼吁公司采取這個措施。梅森在一封寫給全公司的信中承認:“我能接受自己在這方面的失利……我最后悔的是,由于數據的不足,我忽視了自己的直覺,沒有最大限度地讓消費者滿意。”

????Groupon聯合創始人兼董事會主席埃里克?萊夫科夫斯基一直在盡量讓自己遠離這家公司。這一次,他與泰德?萊昂西斯被重新聘為公司聯席CEO。萊夫科夫斯基嚴厲譴責了自己的聯合創始人和前任。“你可以說:‘所有人都在這里,所有人都應該負責,包括高級經理、董事會等,’最近,他對《快速公司》雜志(Fast Company)這樣說。‘然而,說到底,CEO就是CEO。是他做出了所有那些艱難的決定。如果一切進展順利,你就是英雄;而如果事情并不順利,你就得負責。’”

????梅森被炒魷魚的消息刺激公司股票上漲超過了39%。然而,對于梅森離開之后的Groupon,雖然華爾街有可能重拾信心,但公司的未來仍不明朗。弗雷斯特研究公司研究員蘇卡里塔?穆爾普魯過去一直在批評Groupon,但他最終相信公司會擁有一種可持續的模式,盡管公司規模距離其巔峰時期縮水不少。

????阿爾瓦雷斯建議,Groupon可以更充分地利用自己的優勢——2億多團購訂戶——他們實質上都是尋找下一筆生意的價值型購買者。Groupon或許并不是為商家培養客戶忠誠度的出色工具,然而,通過向新交易類型擴張,這個平臺可以向同一批團購者交叉推廣不同類型的交易。他們可能某一天希望購買一頓打折的晚餐,第二天又希望去哥斯達黎加度過四天的假期。

????The days when Groupon was a poster child, when founder and ex-CEO Andrew Mason graced magazine covers propagating the pros of the daily deal -- for deeply discounted massages, dinners, trips, and the like -- probably seem like a distant memory to Mason and his one-time employees.

????Four-and-a-half years after Mason founded the company, Groupon (GRPN) is a cautionary tale of a hyped-up Internet darling that expanded too quickly atop an opaque business model with low-to-nonexistent profit margins -- not to mention unhappy partners who complained there was little upside for them. Just as bad were the countless competitors like LivingSocial, which popped up, seemingly overnight, offering similar deals at similarly cutthroat prices. (Indeed, as early as 2011, Forrester Research deemed Groupon an unqualified disaster, "a shill that's going to be exposed pretty soon.")

????Gene Alvarez, a Gartner Research analyst, was never bullish on Groupon to begin with. Sure, customers got great deals, and merchants saw more customers come in during off-hours, but there remained little incentive for buyers to come back to the same merchant for a second or third time and pay full price for a service they previously paid 50% less for. "If I'm a merchant, and I know how already to run a 50% what's to stop me from sticking a sale in the window?" asks Alvarez. For many merchants, doing just that may be equally effective (or ineffective).

????So it shouldn't have come as a complete surprise when Groupon reported annual revenues of $2.33 billion but a net loss of $67.4 million for 2012. Last February, when the company reported fourth-quarter financials that missed analysts' estimates -- sending Groupon's stock down 20% initially -- Mason was finally fired. By some accounts, it was a move investors had clamored for since late last year. "I'm OK with having failed at this part of the journey ... My biggest regrets are the moments that I let a lack of data override my intuition on what's best for our customers," Mason confessed in a company-wide letter.

????Groupon co-founder and chairman Eric Lefkofsky, who had since distanced himself from the company, was brought back as co-CEO, alongside Ted Leonsis. Lefkofsky had some stern words for his co-founder and predecessor. "You could say, 'Well everyone was here, and everyone's to blame including the senior manager, the board, whatever,' he told Fast Companyrecently. "But at the end of the day, the CEO is the CEO. And he makes those tough calls. If they go well, you're a hero, and if they don't go well, you're accountable."

????Mason's ousting has since helped propel shares up over 39%. But while Wall Street may have some renewed confidence in a Mason-free Groupon, the company's future remains unclear. Sucharita Mulpuru, a Forrester Research analyst, has been critical of Groupon in the past, but ultimately believes it has a sustainable model, albeit a smaller one compared to the company's peak.

????Alvarez suggests Groupon could take better advantage of its strength -- its list of 200 million-plus deals subscribers -- who, at their core, are value shoppers searching for the next deal. Groupon might not be a great tool for creating customer loyalty for a merchant, but by expanding into new deal categories, it can cross-promote different kinds of deals to the same hardcore list of subscribers, who might be willing to buy a discounted dinner one day, then spring for a four-night getaway to Costa Rica the next.

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