科技巨頭的技術老化難題
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????像IBM一樣，近幾年來，微軟也在準備推動企業軟件市場向云技術領域轉變。微軟的商業軟件部門目前是為微軟公司創收最多、同時也是營業利潤最大的部門，它的產品就包括了微軟的“萬年搖錢樹”Microsoft Office軟件的云計算版。上個季度，該部門的收入增長了8%。 ????自上周發布財報以來，微軟的股價已經上漲了7%，盡管有些分析師考慮到PC市場的不確定性，因而對微軟股票走勢持悲觀態度，但也有一些分析師表示樂觀。比如雷蒙?詹姆斯就表示：“微軟總體機會的積極面主要圍繞云計算、移動和Windows 8。” ????由于英特爾第一季度的財報稍稍低于分析師的預期，因此，其股價一開始稍有下跌，但后來又上漲了6%。PC芯片業務仍然貢獻了這家公司64%的收入，不過這個數字比起兩年前的69%還是有所下降。與此同時，英特爾也積極進軍其它業務，比如用于支持數據中心的服務器芯片以及其它軟件和服務，以提高芯片業務的業績。 ????同時，英特爾也在推動從傳統PC芯片業務到云計算業務的轉型——也就是推出能夠支持數據中心的芯片。因為對于云世界來說，數據中心并不是曇花一現的事物。 ????英特爾CEO保羅?歐特里尼在公司最近的一次收益電話會議上發表了或許是他任內的最后一次講話。他強調，英特爾公司仍然處于半導體設計創新的前沿，英特爾生產的22納米處理器已經出貨了1億臺，而且英特爾還在集中精力開發14納米的芯片。雖然現在英特爾目前關注的是給速度更快的超極本提供更好的芯片，但超極本現在也是一個日益萎縮的市場。 ????盡管英特爾采取了新的芯片架構，有些分析師對英特爾過于依賴日益萎縮的PC市場還是表示了擔心。在一份報告中，加拿大皇家資本（RBC Capital）的分析師道格?弗里德曼認為，英特爾的這些新設計“能否在PC市場上推動包括觸屏和超極本在內的新一輪復興”還是未知數。同時英特爾很可能會通過優化成本結構和分紅等措施穩固股價。 ????科技界中存在這樣一種矛盾：如果說主宰了一種業務的核心領域就算成功的話，那么這成功真是來得快去得也快。有些公司隨著PC和服務器市場的崛起而崛起，之后可能擁有了巨大的市值和豐厚的現金。但是，一旦這個市場衰落了，這些公司也必然成為被殃及的池魚。從IBM、微軟和英特爾的案例上看，這種兩難局面沒有任何一個簡單的解決辦法。每家公司都在努力尋找一個屬于自己的、不完美的答案。（財富中文網） ????譯者：樸成奎 |
????Like IBM, Microsoft has been for years preparing for an enterprise software market moving into the cloud. The business software division, currently the largest in both revenue and operating profit, includes enterprise software like Office 365, the cloud-based version of that longtime cash cow, Microsoft Office. The business division saw revenue grow 8% last quarter. ????Microsoft's stock has risen 7% since its earnings last week, and while some analysts remain bearish on the stock because of uncertainties in the PC market, others remained optimistic. Raymond James cited "the positive of Microsoft's overall opportunity around cloud, mobile, and Windows 8." ????Intel's stock initially dropped on an earnings report that fell slightly short of analyst estimates but has since rallied 6%. PC chips still account for 64% of Intel's revenues, although that figure has declined from 69% two years ago as Intel has pushed into new businesses like server chips powering data centers and software and services to enhance the chips' performance. ????In its way, Intel is also steering its business away from chips in traditional PCs and toward the cloud -- that is, chips that power the data centers that are the not-so-ephemeral substance of the cloud. ????As CEO Paul Otellini stressed in what may be his final comments as CEO in an Intel earnings call, the company remains at the forefront of innovation in semiconductor design, with 100 million 22-nanometer processors shipped so far and Intel focused on making 14-nanometer chips. But Intel is focused on making better chips for faster ultrabooks, which is still a declining market. ????Some analysts remained concerned about Intel's reliance on a declining PC market, despite its new chip architectures. In a report, Doug Freedman at RBC Capital said he was skeptical such new designs "will drive a revival of newer initiatives including touch and ultrabook in the PC marketplace." Instead, Intel is likely to keep shoring up its stock with improving cost structures and paying dividends. ????One of the dilemmas of tech is that success -- if defined by dominating a core area of business -- is so fleeting. The same companies that rode the rise of the PC and server markets may enjoy large market caps and ample cash, but they're also chained to those same markets in decline. As IBM, Microsoft, and Intel show, there is no single, simple answer to that dilemma. Each company is struggling to find its own imperfect answer. |
