????畢業(yè)季即將到來。過去，這些20多歲、前途光明的年輕人在告別校園生活后的一些年里，往往會開始貸款購買汽車、住房這些標(biāo)志著成家立業(yè)的東西。是的，很多人還有大學(xué)貸款要還，但正是因為上了大學(xué)，這些人才對銀行和貸款機(jī)構(gòu)頗具吸引力。通常，他們一生會賺更多的錢，貸款給他們似乎是安全的抉擇。

????或許今天依然如此，但時代已經(jīng)變了。曾被視為優(yōu)質(zhì)貸款的大學(xué)貸款隨著總體規(guī)模膨脹到如今這么龐大的規(guī)模，它在很多時候已變成了負(fù)累。

????紐約聯(lián)邦儲備銀行（Federal Reserve Bank of New York）發(fā)布的一份最新研究報告顯示， 30歲(首次購房者年齡中值)沒有學(xué)生貸款記錄的人比那些有學(xué)生貸款記錄的人更有可能獲得按揭貸款，是至少十年來第一次出現(xiàn)這樣的情況。很多研究顯示，美國年輕人不再像過去那樣貸款，美國聯(lián)邦儲備委員會（Fed）認(rèn)為，學(xué)生貸款壓力可能是主因。

????鑒于美國正在努力從金融危機(jī)和隨后的經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退中復(fù)蘇，這個話題特別具有重要意義。消費(fèi)占美國經(jīng)濟(jì)很大一部分，而年輕人的消費(fèi)力自然有助于推動增長等式的這一部分。

????2003年至2009年間，有學(xué)生貸款記錄的30歲年輕人擁有住房的比例顯著高于那些沒有此類貸款記錄者。經(jīng)濟(jì)繁榮時期，這個差距進(jìn)一步擴(kuò)大，2008年達(dá)到了4個百分點(diǎn)的峰值。但所有這些在經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退中都改變了。美國住房擁有比例全面下降，有學(xué)生貸款的人下降得更快。美國購房成本最低的2012年，有學(xué)生貸款負(fù)擔(dān)的人擁有住房比例比沒有學(xué)生貸款的人低近兩個百分點(diǎn)。

????確實，美國住房市場還沒有完全從造成2007年房價大跌的創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄止贖中恢復(fù)過來。大學(xué)貸款負(fù)擔(dān)也對美國汽車行業(yè)造成了沖擊。奇怪的是，與此同時，從通用汽車（General Motors）到豐田（Toyota）等眾多汽車公司卻都宣布美國市場銷量創(chuàng)下了數(shù)年新高。和購房一樣，有學(xué)生貸款的人獲批汽車貸款的概率低于沒有學(xué)生貸款的人。

????所有這些都反映了大學(xué)畢業(yè)生對于就業(yè)前景的感覺。經(jīng)濟(jì)下滑時期，就業(yè)市場上壓力最大的是年輕人。但最近這次經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的后果是，美國經(jīng)歷了70多年來最長的經(jīng)濟(jì)低迷期。美國經(jīng)濟(jì)政策研究所（Economic Policy Institute）上周發(fā)布的一份研究報告顯示，當(dāng)前25歲以下的年輕畢業(yè)生失業(yè)率為8.8%，而經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況好很多的2007年，可比失業(yè)率僅為5.7%。包括兼職工作的未充分就業(yè)率為18.3%，遠(yuǎn)高于2007年的9.9%。

????經(jīng)濟(jì)低迷期畢業(yè)，受到的影響是長期的。美國經(jīng)濟(jì)政策研究所稱，相比畢業(yè)時就業(yè)行情好的年份，2013屆畢業(yè)生在未來10-15年賺到的錢可能偏少。

????Graduation season is upon us. It used to be that in the years after hopeful twentysomethings bid farewell to campus life, they'd start borrowing to buy many things typically associated with adulthood -- namely, a car and a home. Many had college loans to repay, but that's partly what made brainy go-getters so attractive to banks and lenders. They typically earn more over a lifetime, so they seemed like a safe bet.

????They may still be, but times have changed. College debt may have once been the good kind of debt, but the scale has grown so big that in many cases it has become more burdensome than helpful.

????For the first time in at least a decade, 30-year-olds -- the median age of first-time home buyers -- with no history of student loans are more likely to have a mortgage than those with debts from school, according to a new report by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Studies have shown young people aren't borrowing as much as they used to, and the Fed says the burden of student debt may be the culprit.

????The topic is especially important as the U.S. struggles to recover from the financial crisis and subsequent recession. Consumption makes up the bulk of the economy, and the spending power of young people has certainly helped drive that part of the growth equation.

????Between 2003 and 2009, home ownership rates were significantly higher for 30-year-olds with a history of school loans vs. those without such debts. The difference widened during the boom years, peaking to 4 percentage points by 2008. That all changed during the recession, however. Home ownership declined across the board but fell faster for those burdened by student loans. By 2012, one of the cheapest times to buy, the home ownership rate for student debtors was almost 2 percentage points lower than those without a history of student debt.

????Indeed, the housing market still hasn't fully recovered from record foreclosures that caused prices to crash in 2007. But the burden of college loans has also hit the auto industry. Oddly enough, it comes at a time when auto companies from General Motors (GM) to Toyota (TM) report some of the strongest U.S. sales in years. As with home ownership, those with student debt are less likely to have a car loan than those non-borrowers.

????All this reflects how college grads feel about their job prospects. During economic downturns, young workers usually feel the brunt of it, but the aftermath of the latest recession has been the longest period of economic weakness the U.S. has seen in more than seven decades. For young graduates under 25 years old today, the unemployment rate is 8.8%, compared with 5.7% when economic times were much better in 2007, according to a report released last week by the Economic Policy Institute. The underemployment rate, which includes those working part-time, is 18.3% compared with 9.9% in 2007.

????Graduating in a bad economy has long-lasting impacts. Over the next 10 to 15 years, graduates of the class of 2013 will likely earn less than if they had graduated when jobs were more plentiful, the EPI says.