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大數據:預知未來的高科技“水晶球”

大數據:預知未來的高科技“水晶球”

Anne Fisher 2013-04-19
幾年前,惠普一些部門離職率高達20%,受此觸動,惠普決定預測全球33萬名員工中誰最有可能辭職。分析師團隊從薪酬水平、加薪情況、升遷情況等海量數據入手,搭建了一個離職風險評分系統,成功幫助降低了離職率。大數據的魔力可見一斑。行業專家稱,如果一個機構從來不用這種方式充分利用自己的數據,那就和一個人有過目不忘的本事卻從來不動腦筋無異。

????迄今為止,這套模型似乎確實有助于降低離職率,但西格爾表示,“一些惠普的忠誠員工肯定會由于這種離職風險評分而感到不安”,他繼而補充道,這類工具代表了“一種全新的強大的人力資源數據”。由于這種數據是高度推測性的,它既是“洞察也是侵犯”,要看經理們如何運用了。

????盡管自己就是個大數據專家,但西格爾也和一些抗議塔吉特公司做法的權威人士一樣,對這種做法表示擔憂。他將預測分析稱為是“雙刃劍的工具”,并相信公眾對隱私權遭侵犯的擔憂不應被忽視。

????他在書中寫道:“對話機制非常重要,但網站常常采用‘請查看并同意我們的隱私政策,詳細文字太長而您又太忙,因此無法讀完’這樣的小把戲,這不能算是對話。企業和消費者的溝通很欠缺。雙方要達成共識才是當今社會面臨的全新重大挑戰。這方面我們還有很長的路要走。”(財富中文網)

????譯者:清遠

????So far, the model seems to be helping to reduce turnover, but "some devoted HP workers are bound to be uncomfortable that their Flight Risk score exists," Siegel notes, adding that such tools represent "a whole new breed of powerful human resources data," which, since it's highly speculative, is either "insight or intrusion," depending on how managers use it.

????Despite his status as a Big Data guru, Siegel echoes some of the same concerns as the pundits who squawked about Target. Calling predictive analytics "a tool that can serve both good and evil," he believes that widespread worries about privacy should not be dismissed.

????"Dialogue is critical, and 'check here to agree to our lengthy privacy policy that you are too busy to read' does not count as dialogue," he writes. "Organizations and consumers are not speaking the same language. Striking a balance, together, is society's big new challenge. We have a long way to go."

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