????在智能手機行業，運氣來得快去得也快。就在2006年的時候，諾基亞（Nokia）還控制著智能手機市場的大半壁江山。iPhone直到2007年夏天才出現。當時安卓（Android）手機甚至還沒有面世。安卓公司于2005年被谷歌（Goolge）收購，但是直到宏達電（HTC）在2008年秋天推出Dream智能手機，安卓才作為一個競爭者進入了市場。

????去年第四季度，全球智能手機出貨量中70%安裝的都是安卓系統，因此安卓毫無疑問還會繼續主宰全球智能手機市場。五年前，安卓作為一個開源移動操作系統平臺，被提供給那些想與諾基亞、蘋果（Apple）和黑莓（Blackberry）分一杯羹的手機廠商。它也是開放手機聯盟的代表系統，而這個開放手機聯盟的成員則包括HTC、三星（Samsung）和摩托羅拉(Motorola)等大牌廠商。

????起初，HTC似乎是最有可能獲得巨大成功的安卓廠商。這不僅僅是因為它的Dream手機開創了安卓時代的先河，同時也因為谷歌的第一個“親兒子”Nexus 1就是HTC代工的。雖然安卓是個開源平臺，但是它也需要一個領頭羊。在早期的安卓時代，HTC貌似就是那只領頭羊。到了2013年，三星則成了安卓王國的霸主。

????HTC怎么了？從最近的數據看，它顯然存在一些問題。根據康姆斯科公司（comScore）的數據，去年12月及今年1、2月份，HTC在美國智能手機用戶中的占有率降低了1.3個百分點，降至9.3%，跌幅甚至超過了被谷歌收購的摩托羅拉。同一時期，三星的占有率上升了1%，蘋果的占有率上升了4%。根據巴克萊研究公司（Barclays Research）的數據，HTC今年的全球手機出貨量可能會跌至第十位。

????上周，HTC提前宣布了今年第一季度的收益，成績并不喜人。第一季度HTC的凈收入為8500萬新臺幣（合280萬美元），下降了98%，遠遠低于分析師預測的6億新臺幣。其第一季度營收為4280萬新臺幣，下跌了37%。這已經是HTC連續第六個季度收益持續下跌了。

????另一個讓人沮喪的信號是HTC的出貨量也在下降。首先，利潤下降的主要原因是HTC One手機的推遲出貨。HTC One搭載了一塊十分吸引人的顯示屏，近來受到了不少好評。據說攝相頭供應不足是導致出貨推遲的主要原因。智能手機廠家們不僅要為爭搶消費者而競爭，還得為了搶零部件而競爭。

????HTC One本來定在今年三月份發布，比三星的最新型號Galaxy S4還早了幾周。隨著三星成為蘋果日益強大的競爭對手，其新發布的Galaxy S4手機也獲得了不少好評和關注。如果能提前一個月發布HTC One手機，將有助于HTC搶占市場先機，并證明自己在智能手機研發上走在了行業前列。可惜HTC One的發布被延期到4月，而且預計本周才會發貨開賣。

????HTC宣布第一季度收支的當日，其股價以下跌2.2個百分點收盤，不過在接下來的四天里又逆勢上揚8.5%，本周收于261.50元新臺幣。這次股價上揚可能是由于Facebook與HTC合作的Facebook Home系統受到了好評的緣故。而HTC First手機則成為第一款支持Facebook Home的手機。不過以后Facebook Home將也可以下載到其它手機上。

????盡管如此，由于HTC手機的市場份額不斷下降，該公司的股價近年來也明顯下跌，從2011年4月頂峰時的1300元新臺幣下跌了80%。HTC希望憑借HTC One手機扭轉頹勢，因此給HTC One配備了一塊性能超強的顯示屏、一個意在與iPhone競爭的鋁合金機身、以及HTC自家生產的圖形處理芯片。

????華爾街的分析師們對HTC的展望持分歧態度，不過大多數分析師都認為，HTC One對該公司的影響將大于HTC First。摩根大通公司（J. P. Morgan）在上周的一份報告中稱HTC One是HTC公司“翻身的最后一次機會”，還稱“從早期跡象看，它的訂購率很強勢”，并表示本季度HTC的營收可能會比上季度增長50%。高盛等公司則認為，造成HTC One出貨延遲的供應鏈問題仍是一個不穩定因素。

????HTC One是宏達電贏回市場份額的最好機會。HTC的新任市場總監最近表示，在這個安卓手機多如牛毛的市場中，HTC將更大聲、更大膽地迎合消費者。上周為了推廣HTC One，HTC公司還在Funny or Die等網站上發布了一個惡搞電視真人秀的廣告。

????在智能手機市場上，消費者的口味是非常善變的，這完全有可能使HTC再次成為贏家。不過目前，這家一度曾是最有希望成功的安卓手機廠商還得先為生存而戰。（財富中文網）

????譯者：樸成奎

????This is how quickly fortunes change in the smartphone industry. In 2006, Nokia (NOK) still controlled more than half of the share of the smartphone market. The iPhone wouldn't appear until the summer of 2007. And no one was making Android phones. Android Inc., bought by Google (GOOG) in 2005, wouldn't emerge as a player until HTC released the Dreamsmartphone in the fall of 2008.

????Android, of course, would go on to dominate the global smartphone market, powering 70% of smartphones shipped in the last quarter of 2012. Five years ago, Android was an open-source mobile OS offered to device manufacturers that wanted to take on Nokia, Apple (AAPL), and BlackBerry (BBRY). It was the OS supporting the Open Handset Alliance, whose members included manufacturers like HTC, Samsung, and Motorola.

????Early on, HTC emerged as the company most likely to succeed as the big maker of Android phones. Not only because of the Dream -- the inaugural Android smartphone -- but also theNexus One, Google's first attempt to design its own smartphone. Android may have been an open OS, but it needed a leader. Early on, HTC looked to be that leader. Instead, it's Samsung that is ruling the Android empire in 2013.

????And what of HTC? By recent numbers, it's ailing. According to comScore, its share of U.S. smartphone subscribers fell 1.3 percentage points to 9.3% in the three months through February, a bigger decline than Motorola (now owned by Google). Samsung saw its share grow by 1 percentage point and Apple by 4 points. Measured by global smartphone shipments, according to Barclays Research, HTC may drop to No. 10 this year.

????Last week, HTC pre-announced its first-quarter earnings, and the news wasn't good. Net income declined 98% to NT$85 million ($2.8 million), well below analyst estimates of NT$600 million. Revenue fell 37% to NT$42.8 million. The quarter marked the sixth straight decline in profit for the Taiwan-based company.

????For some, the disappointing news was another sign that HTC's ship is sinking. Most of the disappointing profit centered around the delayed release of the HTC One phone, an Android phone with an attractive display screen that had been winning largely positive reviews. A shortage of cameras reportedly forced the delay of the new phones. Smartphone makers don't just have to compete for consumers, they also often compete for components.

????The HTC One was supposed to release in March, several weeks ahead of Samsung's new smartphone -- the Galaxy S4, which had also won strong early reviews and received a fair amount of attention now that Samsung has emerged as a rival to Apple. Having a head start of a month could help HTC steal thunder and show that it was making a big step forward with its smartphones. Instead, the HTC One was delayed until April, with shipment expected to begin this week.

????HTC's stock closed down 2.2% on the day it announced those numbers. But it ended up rallying 8.5% over the next four days, closing the week at NT$261.50. That rally appeared to be sparked by the positive reception of Facebook Home, Facebook's (FB) effort to coopt Android's OS to create a front-end interface designed around its own social network. Another HTC phone, the First, was presented as the first Facebook Home phone, although Home will be dowloadable to other Android phones.

????Still, the decline in its market share has brought HTC's stock down significantly from its levels in recent years, trading 80% below the high point of NT$1,300 in April 2011. The One is intended to turn that around, with its impressive display, a casing designed to rival that of the iPhone, and an image processor chip that HTC made in-house.

????Wall Street analysts remain divided on HTC's outlook, but most feel the One would have a bigger impact on its fate than the First. J.P. Morgan, which described the One as HTC's "last chance for a turnaround," said in a report last week that "early signs of order rates are very strong" and could deliver 50% growth in revenue this quarter over the previous quarter. Others, like Goldman Sachs, were concerned that the supply-chain issues that delayed the One could continue to be a factor.

????HTC's One is the company's best chance to win back market share. The company's new marketing chief recently promised a louder voice and bolder approach in reaching out to consumers in a market flooded with Android phones. Last week, to promote the HTC One, the company launched an ad campaign mocking reality TV shows on sites like Funny or Die.

????In the smartphone market, consumer tastes are just fickle enough to make HTC a winner again. For now, the Android manufacturer that once seemed most likely to succeed is just fighting to stay in the game.