????過去幾年來，在朝鮮半島兩國相安無事的大背景下，現(xiàn)代汽車（Hyundai）及其姊妹品牌起亞（Kia）在美國市場異軍突起，日益受到美國消費者追捧。而隨著韓國汽車廠商本土外交緊張局勢的加劇，一些人不禁要問，這種緊張局勢會對現(xiàn)代汽車蒸蒸日上的全球業(yè)務(wù)造成什么影響。

????現(xiàn)代汽車集團（Hyundai Motor Group）的總部位于韓國。目前韓朝之間可能爆發(fā)的武裝沖突將嚴(yán)重威脅現(xiàn)代在韓國的生產(chǎn)。不管這個地區(qū)爆發(fā)哪種形式的沖突，都將危及鄰近海上與空中航線，而日本、中國和美國都必然會卷入這場沖突。立志要成為全球一線品牌的現(xiàn)代汽車近幾年在全球大舉擴張，僅過去十年間就在阿拉巴馬州和喬治亞州建立了兩個裝配工廠。這些工廠主要依靠當(dāng)?shù)氐牧悴考?yīng)商供貨。目前現(xiàn)代有57%的產(chǎn)能位于韓國以外的地區(qū)。

????現(xiàn)代汽車美國分公司發(fā)言人克里斯?霍斯福德指出，現(xiàn)代在美國最暢銷的三款車型——索納塔、伊蘭特和新勝達——都是在美國本土生產(chǎn)的。因此，就算現(xiàn)代在韓國的運營可能出現(xiàn)問題，現(xiàn)代和起亞在美國的運營也不會受到太大沖擊。

????今年3月，現(xiàn)代在美國的銷量為96,024輛，其中三款暢銷車型就達到69,977輛。今年，現(xiàn)代的銷量增長了2.3%。為現(xiàn)代汽車和其他韓國公司提供咨詢服務(wù)的韓國商業(yè)和文化專家唐?薩瑟頓稱：“韓國人和那些在20世紀(jì)50年代初發(fā)生的沖突中受到過傷害的人不同，他們更愿意平息當(dāng)前與朝鮮之間的緊張局勢。”當(dāng)然，1973年的時候，很多以色列人，包括政府官員在內(nèi)，都絕不相信敘利亞和埃及敢于發(fā)動攻擊，直到這一天真的到來。

????薩瑟頓稱，重創(chuàng)日本工業(yè)及主要汽車廠商的2011年大海嘯對韓國汽車業(yè)巨頭具有深遠(yuǎn)影響。這次巨災(zāi)過后，包括現(xiàn)代汽車在內(nèi)的幾大韓國公司都決定設(shè)立海外應(yīng)急中心，以便在急需時這些中心能充當(dāng)總部。薩瑟頓認(rèn)為，只有等到韓國找到某種方式，讓朝鮮不失體面地放下咄咄逼人的架勢時，兩國的緊張局勢才會緩解。他說：“這是過去韓國一直用來緩和半島緊張局勢的策略。”

????上周，朝鮮阻止韓國工人進入聯(lián)合工業(yè)區(qū)，這是兩國關(guān)系驟然吃緊的最新信號。而韓國工人進入聯(lián)合工業(yè)區(qū)本來是兩國實現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟合作的象征。先前朝鮮曾經(jīng)威脅要對美國發(fā)起先發(fā)制人的打擊，導(dǎo)致美國直接派出軍機飛抵韓國待命。同時，美國還開始在朝韓地區(qū)部署導(dǎo)彈防御系統(tǒng)。

????對有些人來說，朝鮮半島爆發(fā)軍事沖突即使并非難以想象，也還是顯得不太可能。但不可能的事件往往會像黑天鵝一樣不期而至，也就是說，完全出乎意料時就已經(jīng)大禍臨頭。去年，中日兩國突然為了幾個小島發(fā)生爭執(zhí)，導(dǎo)致了一場外交風(fēng)波。中國的汽車消費者當(dāng)時立即開始抵制豐田汽車（Toyota）和其他日本品牌，最終導(dǎo)致日本企業(yè)收入下降。這一緊張局勢后來得到緩和，不過日本品牌產(chǎn)品的銷量至今都沒有完全恢復(fù)。

????現(xiàn)代汽車【還有電子產(chǎn)業(yè)巨頭三星公司（Samsung）】可能是韓國工業(yè)實力最令人自豪、也最顯而易見的象征。正因為如此，對經(jīng)常像是要決意自我毀滅的朝鮮來說，現(xiàn)代汽車很可能是非常富有吸引力的打擊目標(biāo)。幸運的是，現(xiàn)代汽車的全球布局似乎能為它提供一些保護。（財富中文網(wǎng)）

????譯者：清遠(yuǎn)

????The remarkable rise in popularity of Hyundai and sister brand Kia with U.S. car buyers has largely unfolded over the past few years against a backdrop of calm on the Korean peninsula. As tensions rise in the manufacturer's homeland, some are asking how unrest might affect Hyundai's surging global business.

????The prospect of armed conflict between North and South Korea threatens manufacturing in the south, where Hyundai Motor Group is located. Japan, China, and the U.S. almost certainly would be drawn into any regional conflict that jeopardized sea lanes and air traffic. Hyundai Motor, in its bid for top-tier global status, has spread operations worldwide, constructing two U.S. vehicle assembly plants in the past decade, in Alabama and Georgia. The plants rely mostly on parts suppliers that also operate locally. About 57% of Hyundai's production capacity resides outside South Korea.

????Chris Hosford, a spokesman for Hyundai Motor in the U.S., noted that Hyundai's three top-selling vehicle models in the U.S. -- Sonata, Elantra, and Santa Fe -- are built locally. Presumably, Hyundai and Kia's U.S. operations wouldn't bear the full brunt of any potential disruption in South Korea.

????Through March of this year, Hyundai's three top sellers accounted for 69,977 of 96,024 vehicles sold in the U.S. Hyundai unit sales are up 2.3% for the year. Don Southerton, an expert on Korean business and culture who consults for Hyundai and other Korean companies, said "South Koreans, other than those scarred by the conflict of the early 1950s, tend to play down current tensions with the north." Of course, many Israelis, including government officials, never believed that Syria and Egypt would dare attack in 1973 -- until the day it happened.

????The 2011 tsunami that disrupted Japanese industry, including the country's major automakers, did have a profound effect on Korean planners, Southerton said. Following the disaster several big South Korean corporations, including Hyundai, decided to set up emergency offshore centers that could serve as headquarters if needed. Southerton thinks tensions could continue until South Korea finds a way to allow North Korea to back down gracefully from its aggressive stance. It's "a tactic South Korea has followed in the past to ease tension on the peninsula," he said.

????The latest sign of tension came this week as North Korea blocked the entry of hundreds of South Korean workers into a joint industrial zone that had been a symbol of economic cooperation. Previously North Korea threatened a preemptive strike against the U.S., prompting a flyover of the south by U.S. military aircraft. The U.S., meanwhile, is moving missile defense systems into the region.

????For some, military conflict on the Korean peninsula remains improbable, if not unthinkable. But improbable events can arrive like black swans, that is to say, unexpectedly. Last year China and Japan suddenly were at odds over sovereignty of several small islands, creating a diplomatic furor. Car buyers in China immediately began boycotting Toyota (TM) and other Japanese brands, which translated into lower earnings. The tension has since calmed, though sales of Japanese brands in China have not totally recovered.

????Hyundai (along with electronics titan Samsung) might be the one of the proudest and most visible symbols of South Korean industrial might. As such, the automotive brand could be a tempting target for a North Korean regime that often seems determined to self-destruct. Fortunately, Hyundai's global scale seems to afford it some protection.