????第三，目前尚不清楚到底需要多久才能使塞浦路斯經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)行恢復(fù)到一定的正常水平。今天導(dǎo)致該國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)癱瘓的因素遠(yuǎn)不止此次危機(jī)的直接沖擊。塞浦路斯在歐盟成員國(guó)伙伴們的施壓下正在永久性地毀掉其離岸金融中心的地位。如果沒(méi)有新的增長(zhǎng)模式和更大規(guī)模外部資金的支撐——這兩個(gè)條件都不可能一蹴而就——它的經(jīng)濟(jì)就會(huì)面臨陷入長(zhǎng)期蕭條的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。

????最后，在歐元區(qū)其他一些經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況比較脆弱的國(guó)家中，存款人，特別是那些大額非保險(xiǎn)賬戶的存款人將會(huì)出現(xiàn)什么反應(yīng)？現(xiàn)在這方面還存在一些疑問(wèn)。既然歐洲已經(jīng)百無(wú)禁忌，那么他們是否感覺(jué)有必要把錢(qián)從銀行里取出來(lái)？

????大部分分析師們都理所當(dāng)然地傾向重點(diǎn)關(guān)注較大的經(jīng)濟(jì)體，比如，意大利和西班牙。但同時(shí)，他們也應(yīng)該對(duì)通常被視為一些較小的“非系統(tǒng)性”經(jīng)濟(jì)體（尤其是斯洛文尼亞和一些銀行系統(tǒng)在國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)中具有舉足輕重地位的經(jīng)濟(jì)體）保持關(guān)注。歷史告誡我們，某幾個(gè)“非系統(tǒng)性”經(jīng)濟(jì)體內(nèi)部的高度不穩(wěn)定性很容易就會(huì)演變?yōu)橄到y(tǒng)性風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。

????這四大經(jīng)濟(jì)和金融方面的不確定性具有顯著的社會(huì)政治維度。它們持續(xù)的時(shí)間越長(zhǎng)，人們就越是容易對(duì)傳統(tǒng)政治秩序和老牌政黨失去信任——從而加大改革方案有效實(shí)施的難度，增加使社會(huì)陷入動(dòng)蕩的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。

????塞浦路斯危機(jī)不只是關(guān)于一個(gè)小型歐元區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)體任其銀行系統(tǒng)過(guò)度發(fā)展最終釀成危機(jī)的悲情故事，同時(shí)它也反映了決定歐元區(qū)穩(wěn)定的主要因素在逐步發(fā)生重要轉(zhuǎn)移——從前是各國(guó)政府、歐洲委員會(huì)（European Commission）、歐洲央行（European Central Bank）以及國(guó)際貨幣基金組織（International Monetary Fund）等組織機(jī)構(gòu)的引導(dǎo)之手掌控著歐洲的穩(wěn)定；而現(xiàn)在歐洲的穩(wěn)定則更取決于越來(lái)越多的國(guó)家日益沮喪和失望的人民之間并不協(xié)調(diào)的行動(dòng)。

????今天在塞浦路斯上演的故事使其他國(guó)家的人們想起一個(gè)古老的說(shuō)法：耍我一次，是你的不對(duì)；耍我兩次，就是我自己的不對(duì)了。

????要預(yù)測(cè)歐元區(qū)將會(huì)如何演變，分析師們必須拓寬他們的視野，超脫傳統(tǒng)國(guó)家和多邊權(quán)力中心的苑囿。許多歐元區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)體的命運(yùn)越來(lái)越掌握在它們自己人民的手中——民眾意識(shí)到，除了通過(guò)財(cái)務(wù)自保、經(jīng)濟(jì)脫鉤以及社會(huì)抗議以外，自己已經(jīng)別無(wú)選擇。

????默罕默德?埃爾-埃利安，太平洋投資管理公司（PIMCC）首席執(zhí)行官兼聯(lián)席首席投資官。同時(shí)還擔(dān)任美國(guó)總統(tǒng)的全球發(fā)展委員會(huì)主席。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

????譯者：默默

????Third, it is not clear how long it will take for some sense of normalcy to return to the functioning of the Cypriot economy. Today the country is paralyzed by much more than the immediate shock of the crisis. Under pressure from its European partners, it is in the process of permanently dismantling its status as an offshore banking center. Absent a new growth model and much greater external financial support -- both of which are unlikely to materialize quickly -- the economy risks falling into a protracted depression.

????Finally, there are questions on how depositors will now behave in other vulnerable European countries, especially those with large uninsured accounts. Will they feel compelled to take cash out of banks now that Europe has broken all sorts of taboos?

????Most analysts are rightly inclined to focus on the larger economies such as Italy and Spain. In doing so, they should also keep a keen eye on what would normally be regarded as the smaller "non-systemic" ones (particularly Slovenia and those with a large banking system relative to their national economies). History warns us that heightened instability in a handful of "non-systemics" can easily become systemic.

????These four economic and financial uncertainties have notable socio-political dimensions. The longer they persist, the higher the risk that citizens would continue to lose trust in the traditional political order and established political parties -- thus reducing the scope for the effective implementation of reform programs and also increasing the risk of social disorder.

????Cyprus is more than the sad story of a small European economy which allowed its banks to grow excessively and irresponsibly. It is also an indicator of an important gradual shift in the major determinants of European stability -- away from the guiding hands of national governments, the European Commission, the European Central Bank, and the International Monetary Fund and to the less coordinated actions of increasingly frustrated and disillusioned citizens in a growing number of countries.

????What is happening in Cyprus today is reminding citizens in other countries of an old saying: Fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me.

????To predict how Europe evolves from here, analysts need to broaden their focus well beyond the traditional national and multilateral power centers. Increasingly, the fate of a growing number of European economies rests in the hands of citizens who feel they have no choice but to self-insure financially, disconnect economically, and protest socially.

????Mohamed A. El-Erian is the CEO and co-chief investment officer of PIMCO. He also chairs the U.S. president's global development council.