????上周末，北京冷的出奇，寒意堪比達沃斯。很多知名人物參加了僅對受邀人員開放的中國發展高層論壇（China Development Forum），此前他們也在1月份受邀參加了冬季達沃斯年會。中國發展高層論壇在滿是亭臺水榭的釣魚臺國賓館（the Diaoyutai State Guesthous， 周圍由覆蓋著琉璃瓦片的高墻所環繞）舉辦。此次論壇成為財富500強企業高管與諾貝爾獎得主及中國政府高官交流的盛會。中國總理李克強也將出席該論壇在人民大會堂舉行的閉幕會議。與會期間，嘉賓們相互交換名片，探討當今最引人注目的話題：中國將何去何從？

????多位發言人在開場白中提到了他們曾參加過多少屆論壇。這個數字通常高達兩位數。他們的講話透露出對聚會上空談的厭倦以及對付諸行動的渴望。

????中國現在仍然是一個奇跡，這一點毋庸置疑。國際貨幣基金組織（IMF）的數據顯示，去年，中國這個世界第二大經濟體的增速達到了7.8%，而世界經濟（不含中國）的增長率僅為2.4%——接近但還沒有達到非官方的衰退分水嶺。（這一點要感謝中國。）此前中國經濟長達20年的兩位數增長讓5億人擺脫了貧困，但近些年的經濟增速屢屢讓人失望，2012年也不例外。中國尚未從2008-2009年的全球經濟危機中恢復過來（歡迎中國與大家風雨同舟）。中國必須著手解決它在這輪經濟危機中所暴露出來的問題。

????中國面臨的令人擔憂的趨勢包括：過度依賴制造業和出口，這讓中國對全球經濟下滑尤為敏感；羸弱的第三產業；不夠完善的社會保障體系，這使得廣大中國職工更愿意去存錢而不愿花錢；當然還有污染問題、腐敗問題、官僚體制僵化問題、金融體制未與國際透明度標準接軌的問題以及貧富差距不斷擴大的問題。

????連續第十四次參加這個論壇的耶魯大學（Yale）高級研究員史蒂芬?羅奇在圍繞經濟體制改革的分組討論會上說：“改革這個詞大家經常提到。尤其對于中國來說，改革一個非常重要的詞，因為它已經成為了一種特別的傳承，這個承諾始于上世紀70年代末鄧小平倡導的改革開放。”羅奇還說，改革“要有目標性，要果敢，而且必須針對不同經濟體的具體需求，不能為了改革而改革。”

????以習近平主席和李克強總理為核心的中國新一屆領導班子似乎對未來將面臨的挑戰抱有務實的看法。今年論壇（由中國政府主辦）的主題仍然略顯呆板——“中國：改革開放與全面建成小康社會”。在英文中，小康社會有時會被草草翻譯成同樣呆板的描述，即“a moderately prosperous society”（“中等繁榮的社會”），但我們倒是可以理解。它符合中國“十二五”規劃中的總體目標：解決不平等問題，包括沿海發達地區與內陸欠發達地區之間的收入和發展差距；促進國內消費；改善社會保障體系；還有，正如同副總理張高麗在會議第二天透過翻譯所說，要發揮“市場在資源配置中的基礎性作用，使企業在公平競爭中優勝劣汰，充分激發市場主體的活力。”

????It wasn't Davos, quite, but it was awfully cold last weekend in Beijing, and many of the headliners attending the invitation-only China Development Forum (CDF), held among the gardens and waterways (and behind the glass-shard-topped high walls) of the Diaoyutai State Guesthouse, have also been invited to the Alps in January. CDF is where Fortune 500 CEOS mingle with Nobel Prize winners and top-level Chinese government officials—including a closing session at the Great Hall of the People with Chinese Premier Li Keqiang. Together they exchange many, many business cards, and examine the most compelling business topic of our day: Whither China?

????Several speakers began their remarks by noting how many years they've been coming. Often it's double digits, and infusing the mood of the gathering was a certain weariness with talk, coupled with impatience for action.

????China is still a miracle, no one doubts that. The world's second largest economy grew at 7.8% last year, according to the IMF, while the world excluding China grew 2.4%—near but not quite at the unofficial recession threshold. (Thank you, China.) But after two decades of double-digit growth that lifted five hundred million out of poverty, 2012 counts as another in a recent string of disappointments. China has yet to recover from the 2008-2009 global economic collapse (welcome to the club, China), an event which exposed vulnerabilities China must address.

????Among the worrisome trends: China's overreliance on manufacturing and exports, which makes it uniquely sensitive to downturns in the global economy; its anemic service-sector economy; its inadequate social safety net, which forces Chinese workers to save more and spend less; and of course the pollution problem, the corruption problem, the stultifying bureaucracy problem, the problems associated with a financial system that doesn't come close to meeting global standards for transparency, and not least, the growing divide between rich and poor.

????"The word reform gets thrown around a lot," said Yale's Stephen Roach, here for the 14th straight year, in a session on economic reform. "It's a very important word, especially for China, given its extraordinary legacy, beginning with the reforms and opening-up of Deng Xiaoping in the late 1970s." But reforms, "must be goal-oriented," Roach continued, "they must be aggressive, and they must be focused on the specific requirements of individual economies. You cannot have reform for the sake of reform."

????China's new leadership under President Xi Jinping and Premier Li seems to have a realistic sense of the challenge that lies ahead. The theme of this year's conference (which is sponsored by the Chinese government) sounds a little stilted—"to Deepen Reform and Opening-up for a Well-off Society," the last part sometimes translated on the fly, equally stilted, as "a moderately prosperous society"— but we understand. It lines up with the broad goals of China's latest five-year plan: to address inequality, both of income, and of development between the overdeveloped coast and the underdeveloped interior; to increase domestic consumption; to strengthen the social safety net; and, as Vice Premier Zhang Gaoli said through a translator in his speech on day two, to recognize "the fundamental role of the market in resource allocation so that capable companies can excel in competition and the dynamism of the market can be achieved."