????? 盡管塞浦路斯的經濟規模還不到歐元區17國的0.5%，但歐盟官員非常愿意砸錢來限制這個問題所產生的影響。希臘和葡萄牙的經驗表明，即使很小的經濟體也會影響經濟信心。歐盟官員最大的動力仍是他們自己的工作——他們將繼續通過“援助”這種權宜之計來徹底消除人們對危機擴散的擔心。

????? 許多人認為，塞浦路斯是歐元區的一大漏洞，允許這樣的國家加入歐元區首先就是個重大失誤。我們預計他們的應對措施依然是用錢來解決問題，而他們的初步行動將是啟動銀行業改革，以此遏制腐敗。

????? 俄羅斯總統普京已對存款稅提出批評。他說，一旦落實，它將是一個不公平、不專業而且危險的決定。也許普京在塞浦路斯也有存款？塞浦路斯的經濟規模約為240億歐元（1,932億元人民幣），而俄羅斯放在塞浦路斯的資金估計為600億歐元（4,830億元人民幣）左右。因此，俄羅斯人撤資及其對塞浦路斯銀行業與經濟的負面沖擊著實令人擔心。這也進一步表明，塞政府必須對存款采取限制措施，以防資金外逃。

????雖然我們認為市場將很快擺脫塞浦路斯問題的影響，但它和意大利選舉為打壓歐元提供了很好的武器。

????市場再也經受不起新一輪重大危機的干擾?。ㄘ敻恢形木W）

????譯者：Charlie

????? Even with an economy the size of less than one half a percent of the 17-nation Eurozone, Eurocrats are incentivized to throw money at the problem to limit fall out. The experience of Greece and Portugal in particular shows that even puny economies can impact economic sentiment. Eurocrats' biggest incentive remains their own jobs -- they'll continue to squash any fears of contagion with bailout band-aids.

????? Cyprus represents, to many, a huge flaw in the Eurozone system – allowing countries like Cyprus to enter the Eurozone in the first place. Again we expect the play from them to be throwing good money at bad, with initial attempts of setting forth banking reforms to limit corruption.

????? Russian President Vladimir Putin has criticized the levy saying that the decision, should it be made, would be unfair, unprofessional and dangerous. Maybe Putin has some money in Cyprus too?? It is estimated that Russia has ~ €60B of total exposure to Cyprus on a ~€24B economy. So there's a real fear of Russians pulling their money and the negative windfall it would have on the banking system and economy. This further suggests that restrictive measures will have to be placed on deposits to prevent flight.

????While we think the market will move past Cyprus over the short term, this event along with the Italian elections provide good ammo to put pressure on the euro.

????Nothing like another good crisis to stir up the markets!