????過去一年，高盛（Goldman Sachs）管理層一直在試圖重塑公司形象，讓這家總是被視為華爾街流氓的公司看起來不再像過去那么風險重重。不過，美國聯邦儲備委員會（Federal Reserve，簡稱：美聯儲）看來似乎并不相信。

????周四收盤后，我們會對美聯儲的想法有更清楚的認識，屆時這家銀行業監管機構將發布銀行業壓力測試的最終結果。

????初步結果顯示，如果再次爆發金融危機，高盛可能損失250億美元，高于美聯儲測算的其他任何一家銀行。

????按美聯儲的測算值，高盛潛在的交易損失是老對頭對手摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）的兩倍還多。同為美聯儲測算，摩根士丹利潛在的交易損失不到120億美元。只有摩根大通（JPMorgan Chase）與高盛相近。美聯儲預計，這家由杰米?戴蒙執掌的銀行可能產生235億美元的損失。

????高盛拒絕對壓力測試發表評論。高盛CEO勞埃德?布萊克費恩早已宣布關閉自營交易業務。最近，布萊克費恩和高盛首席運營官加里?科恩也一直在警告債券泡沫。

????高盛在最近提交的年報中稱，2012年高盛的日均風險價值（即可能損失的最高金額）是8,600萬美元，比2009年時低了60%。

????但美聯儲似乎認為，高盛的交易業務風險遠沒有像它自己說的那樣大幅下降。如果按高盛測算的日均風險價值，可能要290個交易日，高盛才會達到美聯儲預測的250億美元潛在損失。但美聯儲的壓力測試預計這些損失大部分會在2013年底前發生；壓力測試衡量的是，如果去年10月至明年經濟出現滑坡，各家銀行可能拿出的表現。它意味著，就算連續一年多每天損失8,600萬美元(高盛自測日損失上限)，它可能也要更多一些時間才能達到美聯儲的損失目標。

????相比之下，摩根士丹利如果采用2012年交易業務的風險測算，達到美聯儲的損失測算值可能需要160天多一點。花旗(Citigroup)達到測算的交易損失可能需要107天。

????實際情形當然不會完全是這樣。即便是在眼下這輪金融危機期間，大多數公司也不是每天都在虧錢。長期以來，華爾街分析師們對于這些交易損失測算值向來都是半信半疑。事實上，所謂的風險價值(VaR)指標是華爾街最不受信賴的指標之一。這說明了一些問題。大多數人相信VaR在下一場金融危機中可能激增。不過，壓力測試顯示，很多銀行，（特別是高盛）向股東們報告的這項主要風險指標可能有多不靠譜。

????而且，高盛的VaR并不包括這家公司通過私募股權和債券基金投資的近40億美元長期投資可能發生的任何損失。但即便所有這些投資化為烏有，它還需要再損失210億美元。而且，就連這個數字也需要244天。

????摩根士丹利分析師貝斯?格拉色克估計，高盛潛在的交易損失以及在壓力測試中總體表現糟糕可能導致這家公司將明年的股票回購金額削減1/3至40億美元。如果周四下午美聯儲確實是這樣說的，投資者不應為縮減股票回購計劃而遺憾。他們或許想問的是，高盛以及華爾街究竟做出了多少改變。（財富中文網）

????In the last year or so, Goldman Sachs executives have tried to portray their firm, often seen as a Wall Street swashbuckler, as a lot less risky than it used to be. The Federal Reserve appears not to be convinced.

????We'll get a better idea of what the Fed thinks on Thursday after the market closes, when the bank regulator releases the final results of its stress tests.

????The preliminary results suggest Goldman could lose $25 billion from bad trades in another financial crisis, more than any other bank tested by the Fed.

????Goldman's (GS) potential trading losses were more than double what the Fed saw possible at Goldman's closest rival, Morgan Stanley (MS). The Fed put Morgan's trading risk at just under $12 billion. Only JPMorgan Chase (JPM) came close. The Fed estimated that Jamie Dimon's bank could have $23.5 billion in losses.

????Goldman declined to comment on the stress tests. In the past, CEO Lloyd Blankfein has said that the firm closed its proprietary trading operations. Recently, both Blankfein and Goldman COO Gary Cohn have been warning about a bond bubble.

????In its recently filed annual report, Goldman said that in 2012 the amount it risked in the market -- i.e. the maximum amount it could lose -- on average per day was $86 million, down 60% from what it was back in 2009.

????But the Fed seems to think the risk in Goldman's trading book hasn't dropped nearly as much as the bank says. By Goldman's risk estimate it would take the firm 290 trading days to lose the nearly $25 billion that the Fed suggests it could in a downturn. But the bulk of the estimated trading losses in the Fed's stress test, which tracks how the banks would do in an economic downturn that hypothetically started last October and runs through next year, are expected to take place by the end of 2013. That leaves Goldman a few days shy of its ability to get to the Fed's dubious goal, even if it were to lose $86 million -- the maximum it says it could lose -- everyday for more than a year.

????Morgan Stanley, by comparison, would reach its Fed loss mark in just over 160 days based on its estimates of the risk its trading desk took in 2012. Citigroup (C) would get to its allotted trading loss in 107 days.

????This is of course not really how things would work. Even during the financial crisis most firms didn't lose money trading every single day. Wall Street analysts have long taken these estimates of how much a firm's trading desk could lose with a grain of salt. Behind the scenes the so-called value-at-risk measure is one of the least trusted on Wall Street. And that's saying something. Most people believe VARs would spike in another financial crisis. Still, the stress test points out just how far off the main figure of risk that banks, but Goldman in particular, reports to its shareholders must be.

????What's more, Goldman's VAR doesn't include any losses it could have on the nearly $4 billion in long-term investments the firm has made through its own private equity and debt funds. But even if all those investments went to zero, it would still have to lose another $21 billion. Even that amount would take 244 days.

????Morgan Stanley analyst Betsey Graseck estimates that Goldman's potential trading losses and its poor showing in general in the stress tests means the firm may be forced to cut the amount it was expected to spend in share buybacks next year by a third to $4 billion. If that is indeed what the Fed says on Thursday afternoon, investors should do more than mourn the lost buybacks. They may want to question just how much Goldman, and Wall Street in general, has really changed.