??史密斯認為，到本世紀中葉，在北極地區，船體未加固的開放水域船只將變得更加常見?！斑@些地方能夠激發人的想象力，”他說?！?9世紀末，為了尋找歐洲和東方之間的最短路線，許多勇敢的探險家試圖橫穿西北航道和北海航線，最終殞命。未來，越來越多的普通船只會渴望進入這個水域。”

雖然西北航道是北美東部和亞洲之間的最短路線，但它不可能成為穿越北極的主要航道，曾經擔任過破冰船船長的布里格姆教授說。但“未來將有許多船只進出加拿大北極地區，很可能是一些從巴芬島向歐洲運送鐵礦石的散裝貨輪?！?/p>

“不管是今天還是未來，北極航運的主要推動力都源自北極自然資源的開發——北極航運將這些自然資源帶向全球市場，”布里格姆補充說?！罢缥覀冇^察到的那樣，海冰退卻延長了航行季節，拓展了海上通道，但全球大宗商品價格和經濟，才是驅動未來北極航運發展的決定性力量。”

隨著西北航道和北極的開放，一些船只將有望避開俄羅斯的專屬經濟區（Exclusive Economic Zone）：俄羅斯向通過這一區域的船只征收高昂的強制性護送費。史密斯說，盡管航行于監管不那么嚴苛的國際水域可降低成本，但它也會導致環境和安全問題。“情況既讓人興奮，又令人擔憂，”他說?！氨睒O一直是一個非常危險的地方，未來也不會改變。到了冬天，冰層始終會再次出現。北極黑暗且遙遠。我們現在只能預言，在未來幾年中，北方國家將不得不應對更多的巡邏、搜索、救援和安全問題?！保ㄘ敻恢形木W）

譯者：任文科

????Smith thinks that unreinforced open-water ships could become far more common in the Arctic by mid-century. "These places capture the imagination," he says. "Many intrepid explorers died seeking clear passage through both the Northwest Passage and the Northern Sea Route in the late nineteenth century while looking for the shortest route between Europe and the Orient, as it was known then. Temptation will grow for ordinary vessels to enter these waters."

????Although the NWP is the shortest route from northeastern North America to Asia, it will likely never be used for major shipping on trans-Arctic voyages, says Brigham, who is a former icebreaker captain. But, "there will be many future voyages of ships in and out of the Canadian Arctic, likely bulk carriers carrying iron ore to Europe from Baffin Island."

????"The driver of most Arctic shipping today and in the future is Arctic natural resource developments -- the linkages of Arctic natural resources to global markets," Brigham adds. "Sea ice retreats as observed in the Arctic provide for longer navigation seasons and marine access, but global commodities prices and economics drive the essence of Arctic shipping in the future."

????As the Northwest Passage and the North Pole open up, some ships will be able to avoid Russia's Exclusive Economic Zone; Russia charges steep fees for mandatory escorts through this zone. Although navigating through less-regulated international waters could cut costs, Smith says environmental and safety issues will emerge. "It's both exciting and worrisome," he says. "The Arctic is a dangerous place and always will be. The ice will always return in winter. It's dark. It's remote. Let's just say the northern countries are going to have some patrolling, search-and-rescue, and security issues on their hands in the coming years."