????中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)2013年的開(kāi)局與往年如出一轍。它在前兩個(gè)月的增長(zhǎng)基本都是拜出口業(yè)和房地產(chǎn)業(yè)的推動(dòng)所賜。而建筑業(yè)增長(zhǎng)背后的動(dòng)力則源自信貸。當(dāng)前的發(fā)展軌跡如果持續(xù)下去，必將給中國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)體制帶來(lái)更多債務(wù)和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。

????與前一年相比，中國(guó)一、二月份的城市投資增加了21%，增速超過(guò)2012年全年的增長(zhǎng)速度。中國(guó)城市人口的日益膨脹，許多在建的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施都不可或缺。但令人擔(dān)憂的是房地產(chǎn)投資。雖然中國(guó)政府一直在努力控制房地產(chǎn)投機(jī)活動(dòng)，但住宅投資增幅仍然高達(dá)23%，而2012年全年僅有11%。

????增長(zhǎng)背后的推動(dòng)力便是信貸。隨著“社會(huì)總?cè)谫Y”的增加，房地產(chǎn)開(kāi)發(fā)也開(kāi)始出現(xiàn)波動(dòng)。所謂社會(huì)總?cè)谫Y不僅包括銀行貸款與債券，還包括公司間貸款和信托公司提供的資金。今年一、二月份，社會(huì)總?cè)谫Y年比增長(zhǎng)了79%。

????但所有這些貸款并沒(méi)有進(jìn)入普通人的腰包。根據(jù)公認(rèn)存在缺陷的零售業(yè)銷售標(biāo)準(zhǔn)，中國(guó)的消費(fèi)仍然相對(duì)疲軟。零售銷售的增長(zhǎng)速度僅有房地產(chǎn)投資的一半左右。服裝與汽車的銷售從去年就已經(jīng)開(kāi)始放緩；日用品、食品、煙草和家具銷售的增長(zhǎng)處于兩年以來(lái)的最低水平。

????算術(shù)學(xué)告訴我們，這樣的增長(zhǎng)不可能持久。如果過(guò)去兩個(gè)月的貸款增長(zhǎng)按現(xiàn)有速度持續(xù)下去，中國(guó)將為2013年的經(jīng)濟(jì)注入約22萬(wàn)億元資金，這個(gè)數(shù)字比前一年增加了37%。雖然這或許能讓中國(guó)再次實(shí)現(xiàn)7.5%的官方增長(zhǎng)目標(biāo)，但中國(guó)所付出的代價(jià)將是金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)一步累積。

????去年，許多持看跌態(tài)度的投資者認(rèn)為，中國(guó)的房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)將徹底崩潰，但他們的預(yù)期并沒(méi)有變成現(xiàn)實(shí)。社會(huì)融資的驚人增長(zhǎng)便是主要原因。最新數(shù)據(jù)顯示，雖然具體時(shí)間難以預(yù)測(cè)，但中國(guó)房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)的“清算日”似乎仍然不可避免。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

????譯者：劉進(jìn)龍/汪皓

????China began 2013 with the same old economic model. Growth for the first two months of the year was driven mainly by exports and real estate. The increase in construction appears to have been fueled by credit. The current trajectory can continue only by pumping ever more leverage, and risk, into the system.

????Investment in cities was up 21% compared to the previous year in January and February -- faster than the whole of 2012. Some of the infrastructure that is being built will become necessary as China's urban population swells. But the worrying bit is property investment. Even as the government tries to rein in real estate speculation, investment in residences increased by 23%, compared with 11% for the whole of 2012.

????That growth is being driven by credit. Property development tends to fluctuate with the growth of "total social financing": a measure that includes not only bank credit and bonds but also inter-company loans and funding from trust companies. During January and February, it grew 79% year on year.

????All that lending, though, isn't trickling down to the man on the street. Consumption looks relatively weak, based on the admittedly flawed metric of retail sales. These grew at around half the rate of property investment. Sales of clothes and cars slowed from last year; growth in everyday items, food, tobacco, and furniture were the worst in two years.

????Arithmetic suggests this can't last. If the past two months' lending run rate continues, China will pump almost 22 trillion yuan of new financing into the economy in 2013 -- a 37% increase over the previous year. While this may allow the country to once again meet its official growth target of 7.5%, it will have been achieved at the expense of an ever greater build-up of financial risk.

????Last year, many bearish investors bet on a Chinese property market crash that didn't materialize. The startling rise in social financing was the main reason why. The latest data suggests that while the timing may be hard to predict, an eventual reckoning still looks inevitable.