????新規定和今天大抵相仿，要求外國投資者與委內瑞拉石油公司合作，而后者將占有60%的所有權。僅占40%所有權的外國公司卻需要進行100%的投資。此外，外國公司盈利必須繳納50%的稅費和33%的特許開采費。噢，投資者還必須同意，將來一旦發生與政府所有權相關的爭端，將由委內瑞拉法庭審理，而不是那些令人討厭的、公正的國際仲裁法庭。

????不過即便風險/回報率如此離譜，委內瑞拉還是聲稱已經把奧里諾科河的36塊地拍賣給了21個國家的27家公司。這些公司大多是來自伊朗、白俄羅斯和古巴一些稀奇古怪的國有或政府控制的石油公司。不過一些大型上市石油公司，比如西班牙的雷普索爾（Repsol）、巴西的巴西石油公司、意大利的埃尼集團（Eni）和法國的道達爾（Total）也持有了股份。甚至連雪佛龍也占了一塊——盡管只是很小的一塊。

????找一些國外合伙人來幫忙承擔風險合情合理，但查韋斯做得太過分了，尤其是這些合伙人幾乎沒有在油砂上勘探的經驗。實際上，這次分工看起來更像是奇怪的公關噱頭，而不是真正的勞動分工。因此了解到目前奧里諾科河的鉆探工程沒什么大動靜，也就不足為奇了。盡管委內瑞拉石油公司稱已經和俄羅斯和越南合作開始鉆井，報告的初期產量卻簡直微不足道。與此同時，據傳印度的石油天然氣公司（ONGC）和其他幾家公司已經開始停止任何投入，直到委內瑞拉的政治局勢變得明朗。可以打賭，即使是委內瑞拉最堅實的盟友，比如在過去幾年給查韋斯政權借債460億美元的中國，也會加入暫時觀望的隊伍。

????很難看到在接下來幾個月內委內瑞拉的石油產業能有所變化。查韋斯設立的政治機構看起來根深蒂固，此時可能需要一場全面的革命才能徹底抹去他們的影響。然而，委內瑞拉的石油開采已經接近了轉折點。政府無法繼續依靠委內瑞拉石油公司償還債務。它需要國外真正具有經驗的合作伙伴介入，幫助它提振產量。

????這意味著需要重新引入像康菲這樣的公司。在2007年被掃地出門前，康菲是委內瑞拉最大的國外運營商。他們擁有工程師和專業技能，可以讓委內瑞拉的石油鉆探迅速取得進展。委內瑞拉還需要明智地同赫斯基公司（Husky）、森科爾公司（Suncor）、加拿大油砂作業公司（Syncrude）和尼克森公司（Nexen）協商。這些公司在加拿大的亞達巴斯卡河（Athabasca）油砂區都有豐富的作業經驗。

????為了吸引合適的人才，委內瑞拉需要在物權法和稅法上做出重大的改變。公司在投資時必須有安全感，因此需要有絕對的安全和法律保障。不過即便委內瑞拉的新任領導在石油公司的所有權要求上讓步，短期內很可能也不會有任何實質性的鉆探。查韋斯已經摧毀了這個國家的信譽，而想要贏回信任仍然需要時日。所以一個月后，委內瑞拉人民投票選舉新的領袖時，他們最好明智些，選擇一位能夠忍氣吞聲的領袖。（財富中文網）

????譯者：嚴匡正

????The new rules, which are more or less the same today, require foreign investors to form partnerships with PDVSA in which the state-owned oil company would have a 60% ownership. The foreign company, which would have 40% ownership, would still have to fund 100% of the investment. Furthermore, whatever the foreign company made would be subject to a 50% tax rate and a 33% royalty (tax). Oh, and investors must agree that any dispute that may arise in the future concerning their ownership with the government will be heard by Venezuelan courts, not those pesky impartial international arbitration courts.

????But while the risk/reward ratio is clearly off, Venezuela says that it has auctioned off 36 lease blocks in the Orinoco to 27 companies hailing from 21 nations. Most are bizarre state-owned or controlled oil companies from places like Iran, Belorussia, and Cuba. But some of the big publicly traded oil companies like Spain's Repsol, Brazil's Petrobras, Italy's Eni and France's Total have stakes as well. Even Chevron was allocated a block -- albeit a small one.

????While it makes sense to have a few foreign partners to help to spread out the risk, one can go too far, especially when those partners have pretty much zero experience working with oil sands. Indeed, this split looks more like a bizarre public relations stunt than a real division of labor. It should therefore come as no surprise to learn that there isn't too much drilling going on in the Orinoco right now. While PDVSA says that it has started to drill wells with its Russian and Vietnamese partners, the initial production numbers reported are trivial. Meanwhile, India's ONGC and several other companies are reportedly holding back from investing any more cash until there is some clarity as to the political situation in the country. You can bet even Venezuela's staunchest allies, like China, which has loaned the Chavez regime some $46 billion in the last few years, will be among those taking a breather.

????It is difficult to see what, if anything, could change in Venezuela's oil industry in the next few months. The political apparatus Chavez has set up seems fully entrenched. It would probably take a full-fledged revolution for it to be wiped out at this point. Nevertheless, Venezuela is nearing a breaking point when it comes to oil production. The government cannot continue to rely on PDVSA to pay its bills. It needs real foreign partners with real experience to come in and help it boost production.

????That means bringing back companies like ConocoPhilips, which before getting the boot in 2007, was the largest foreign operator in the country. They have the engineers and know-how to help Venezuela quickly get off the ground. Venezuela would be wise to also consult with oil companies like Husky, Suncor (SU), Syncrude and Nexen, all of which have extensive experience working in Canada's vast Athabasca oil sands.

????To lure the right talent, Venezuela needs to make some serious changes to its ownership and tax laws. Companies must feel safe to make their investments so security and legal protections will need to be ironclad. But even if Venezuela's new leaders give in to all of the oil companies' demands, it will probably be a while before you see any real drilling. Chavez obliterated the nation's credibility, and it will take some time for Venezuela to earn back that trust. So when Venezuelans go to the polls in a month to choose their new leader, they would be wise to choose someone who knows how to eat a big helping of humble pie.