????上世紀(jì)90年代初，當(dāng)時(shí)我還是高盛公司（Goldman Sachs）的一個(gè)初級(jí)職員。當(dāng)時(shí)的傳統(tǒng)觀念認(rèn)為，成長(zhǎng)型企業(yè)一旦年收入達(dá)到１億美元，而且至少兩個(gè)季度保持盈利，那么就算是做好了上市的準(zhǔn)備。我當(dāng)初對(duì)這種看法也深信不疑。

????“1億美元營(yíng)收”理論基于這樣一種觀念：一個(gè)企業(yè)的規(guī)模必須滿足兩個(gè)條件：一、能夠承受住競(jìng)爭(zhēng)壓力；二、實(shí)現(xiàn)足夠多的市值，才能通過(guò)IPO向機(jī)構(gòu)買(mǎi)家銷(xiāo)售出足夠的股票，同時(shí)不致于在IPO的過(guò)程中使其市值遭到大量稀釋。

????這個(gè)理論其實(shí)沒(méi)有道理，不過(guò)現(xiàn)實(shí)中仍然有很多銀行家和風(fēng)投家將其奉為圭臬。處于成長(zhǎng)期的企業(yè)家如果要想把自己打造成長(zhǎng)期贏家，就必須要明白，上市并不是企業(yè)走長(zhǎng)期發(fā)展之路的最后一步。但不可否認(rèn)的是，上市是企業(yè)長(zhǎng)期發(fā)展過(guò)程中的重要一環(huán)。過(guò)早進(jìn)行IPO，可能會(huì)對(duì)企業(yè)的長(zhǎng)久健康產(chǎn)生災(zāi)難性的影響。反之，過(guò)晚進(jìn)行IPO，可能會(huì)導(dǎo)致競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手搶占先手。

????以我的經(jīng)驗(yàn)來(lái)看，考慮是否要進(jìn)行IPO時(shí)，有三點(diǎn)要素必須考慮。如果你的企業(yè)在這三點(diǎn)上做得不強(qiáng)，那么IPO就會(huì)給你帶來(lái)重大風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。

????１.可預(yù)測(cè)性。如果你的企業(yè)年收益只有5,000萬(wàn)美元，但你能很精確地知道下個(gè)季度、甚至明年的經(jīng)營(yíng)情況大概如何，那么你就已經(jīng)通過(guò)這個(gè)測(cè)試了。換句話說(shuō)，即便你的企業(yè)年?duì)I收達(dá)到２億美元，但你無(wú)法可靠預(yù)測(cè)不久的將來(lái)是什么情況，那就要小心了。如果你實(shí)現(xiàn)了上季度預(yù)期的97%的水平，你的風(fēng)投們會(huì)很高興。但是如果你的實(shí)際營(yíng)收與預(yù)期或分析師的預(yù)測(cè)相差3%以上，你的股票很可能會(huì)跌。而這種情況往往會(huì)打擊員工的士氣，長(zhǎng)了競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手的威風(fēng)，因此風(fēng)險(xiǎn)是很高的。進(jìn)行IPO之前，最好還是花點(diǎn)時(shí)間，加強(qiáng)企業(yè)的可預(yù)測(cè)性。

????2. 基本增長(zhǎng)潛力。有的CEO可能認(rèn)為，年?duì)I收1億美元已經(jīng)可以讓公司邁入IPO的門(mén)檻了，但我想問(wèn)問(wèn)他們，有什么計(jì)劃讓公司實(shí)現(xiàn)3億美元以上的營(yíng)收。IPO并不意味著大功告成。IPO就好比你從大學(xué)聯(lián)賽進(jìn)入職業(yè)聯(lián)賽，必須更加嚴(yán)格要求自己。如果你的公司的確增長(zhǎng)得很快，而且前面的確有一個(gè)巨大的市場(chǎng)在等著你，那么3億美元以上的營(yíng)收就只是小菜一碟，公眾投資者也會(huì)回報(bào)你。但是如果你的公司只是勉強(qiáng)實(shí)現(xiàn)了1億美元的營(yíng)收，在沒(méi)有更多市場(chǎng)潛力的情況下就倉(cāng)促進(jìn)行IPO，那么你不要指望市場(chǎng)會(huì)像搞慈善募捐一樣給你捐錢(qián)。最好的團(tuán)隊(duì)都有好幾條未來(lái)發(fā)展的錦囊妙計(jì)。你可能不知道所有未來(lái)可供開(kāi)拓的潛在發(fā)展方向，但你在IPO之前應(yīng)該有一個(gè)發(fā)展計(jì)劃。最好的團(tuán)隊(duì)永遠(yuǎn)都在投資進(jìn)行幾項(xiàng)試驗(yàn)，看其中的哪個(gè)項(xiàng)目可能促進(jìn)增長(zhǎng)。你考慮進(jìn)行IPO之前，這些試驗(yàn)的早期結(jié)果至少應(yīng)該能夠給你足夠的勇氣來(lái)進(jìn)行IPO。

????As a junior banker at Goldman Sachs (GS) in the early 1990's, I was weaned on the conventional wisdom that growth companies were ready to go public when they reached $100 million in annualized revenue and had at least two quarters of profitability under their belts.

????The "$100 million revenue" theory was based on the idea that a company must be large enough to both: (a) withstand competitive pressures and (b) earn a large enough market value to enable the company to sell enough stock to institutional buyers in its IPO, without suffering massive dilution in the process.

????This theory makes no sense, despite the fact that many bankers and VCs still cling to it like religion. Growth-stage entrepreneurs who want to build long-term winners need to take heed. Going public is by no means the final step to going long. But, it's a big step in the process. Completing an IPO too early can have disastrous effects on the future health of your business. Conversely, waiting too long to do your IPO might allow a competitor to steal your thunder.

????In my experience, there are three key attributes you must have to consider an IPO. You're taking major risks if you're not strong on these three:

????1. Predictability & Visibility. If your business is $50 million in revenue but you know with high precision what next quarter, or even next year, is going to look like, you pass the test. On the other hand, even if your business is $200 million in revenue, and you can't reliably predict what's around the corner, watch out. Your VCs may have been happy when you hit 97% of plan last quarter. If you miss guidance or analyst expectations by 3% once you're public, your stock will likely plummet, often causing employee morale to suffer and competitors to be emboldened. The stakes are high -- take the time you need to ensure that you have built predictability into your company before your IPO.

????2. Underlying Growth Potential. When CEOs fall into the trap of thinking the $100 million revenue plateau is sufficient to "get out" in an IPO, I like to ask them about their plan to get to$300 million or more in revenue. The IPO is not an end game. A better analogy is that going public is more like moving from college sports to the pros. You need to ratchet up your game and be ready. If you're growing fast and have a large market in front of you, $300 million or more will seem like a breeze, and public investors will reward you. If, on the other hand, you eke out growth to $100 million without much more potential and go IPO, don't expect to have a fun run as a public company. The best teams have several tricks up their sleeve for future growth. You may not know all the growth vectors you plan to open up in the future, but you should have a game plan before your IPO. The best teams are always investing in several experiments that could augment growth. You should be encouraged enough by the early results of such experiments before considering an IPO.