????2012年，大約有一半的移動流量被固定網(wǎng)絡通過WiFi和其他連接分流，這個比例很可能會繼續(xù)上升，因為運營商分級定價的數(shù)據(jù)套餐變得更加昂貴。加上只連接WiFi的平板電腦和蘋果公司（Apple）的iPod等設備，實際傳輸?shù)揭苿釉O備上的數(shù)據(jù)其實大大高于這些報告的結果。思科估計，移動設備通過WiFi網(wǎng)絡獲得的數(shù)據(jù)比從蜂窩網(wǎng)絡獲得的數(shù)據(jù)高3倍。

????不過，就純粹的移動服務的使用而言，這些數(shù)據(jù)彰顯了我們都知道的東西——移動互聯(lián)網(wǎng)時代仍處于發(fā)展早期。至于我們的日常行為還將如何繼續(xù)改變，其中的不確定性要高得多，不過趨勢還是提供了一些線索。

????根據(jù)第三方研究，思科預計，移動平均連接速度將因為全球4G網(wǎng)絡部署的增長而得到提高。亞太地區(qū)的增速將更快，當?shù)剡B接速度將以每年57%的幅度上升，到2017年將達到3 兆。在北美，連接速度每年將提高41%，不過均速要快得多，平均將達到14兆。這將為高清視頻在移動網(wǎng)絡上的普及鋪平道路。思科預計，5年后視頻將占移動流量的三分之二，而去年為二分之一。視頻聊天、GPS應用程序、掌上游戲和其他應用程序也會促進移動網(wǎng)絡的需求增長。

????當然，所有這一切也要取決于其他因素，如固定網(wǎng)絡的帶寬增加、更廣泛和可靠的無線網(wǎng)絡的擴展以及——最重要的——無線數(shù)據(jù)套餐的分級定價。昂貴的無線數(shù)據(jù)套餐已經(jīng)促使人們更多地使用固網(wǎng)WiFi。如果這個趨勢繼續(xù)下去，移動互聯(lián)網(wǎng)將繼續(xù)改變我們的日常生活，但無線運營商將在這場革命中被邊緣化。（財富中文網(wǎng)）

????譯者：默默

????Roughly half of mobile traffic in 2012 was offloaded onto fixed networks through WiFi and other connections, a percentage that is likely to increase as tiered data plans grow more expensive. Add in WiFi-only tablets and devices like Apple's (AAPL) iPod Touch, and the actual amount of data being pulled onto mobile devices is considerably higher than what these reports are indicating. Cisco estimates that mobile devices draw four times as much data from WiFi networks as they do from cellular networks.

????In terms of sheer mobile usage, however, the data underscores something we all know -- that the era of the mobile web is still in the early innings. What is much less certain is how that will continue to change our daily behaviors, although trends offer some hints.

????Drawing on third-party research, Cisco estimated that the growth of 4G networks around the world will boost average connection speeds. The growth will be faster in Asia Pacific, where speed will increase by 57% a year to 3 Mbps in 2017. In North America, speeds will increase 41% a year but will on average be much faster, averaging 14 Mbps. That may pave the way for high-definition video to grow more commonplace on mobile networks. Cisco expects video, which accounted for half of mobile traffic last year, to make up two-thirds of it in five years. Video chats, GPS apps, handheld games, and other applications could add to the demand for mobile networks as well.

????Of course, all of this depends on other factors too, such as the increased bandwidth of fixed networks, the expansion of broader and reliable WiFi networks and -- above all -- the tiered pricing of wireless-data plans. Costly wireless plans are already driving people to fixed WiFi networks. If that continues, the mobile web will continue to change our everyday lives, but leave the wireless carriers a peripheral part of the revolution.