一瓶酒里的中國問題
????茅臺酒是不會輕易放低姿態的,無論是在股市還是在其他方面。茅臺酒醇香馥郁、清冽甘爽,歷史可回溯到中國宋代。但最近這個備受歡迎的白酒品牌已經陷入困境。 ????它的遭遇始于去年11月末,當時有報道稱,另一家較小型白酒生產商——酒鬼酒——所生產的高粱酒中發現有毒污染物??偛吭O在廣州的報紙《21世紀經濟報道》( 21st Century Business Herald )的相關報道促使中國食品監管部門展開了調查,證實酒鬼酒的幾種白酒產品塑化劑鄰苯二甲酸二丁酯含量超標。消息傳出后,白酒類股股價大跌 。 ????到了12月初,開始有傳言稱,貴州茅臺酒股份有限公司(Kweichow Moutai Co.,簡稱:貴州茅臺)也在處理類似的污染問題。按市值衡量,該公司是中國最大的白酒 生產商。一位新浪博客在網上公布的測試結果(這些測試結果還沒有被官方監管機構證實)顯示茅臺酒含塑化劑??偛吭O在仁懷市的貴州茅臺針對上述傳聞做出了霸氣十足的回應,但并沒有打消外界的質疑。貴州茅臺的一位代表在公告中稱:“貴州茅臺不會、也完全沒有必要送產品去做檢測?!? ????貴州茅臺股價迅猛下跌,到12月中旬不得不停牌。去年7月份觸及峰值以來,這家公司的股價已經累計下跌了28%。 ????貴州茅臺是中國餐飲界眾所周知的 “國酒”,是高級別國宴用酒,并且仍然是人們饋贈給政府官員的首選禮品。在高檔場所,如北京麗思卡爾頓酒店(Ritz-Carlton ),一瓶50年茅臺陳釀的價格高達78,888元(約合12,700美元)。在當地的煙酒店,中低端的飛天茅臺酒價格約為每瓶1,500元(約合240美元)。 ????就像幾乎所有奢侈品牌一樣,貴州茅臺憑借它與眾不同的光環而區別于競爭對手。茅臺的神話可以追溯到當年紅軍長征途徑貴州省山區期間。當時紅軍在茅臺鎮扎營,品嘗了當地的高粱酒。但是,茅臺酒作為奢侈品的魅力主要還是由1955年至1993年期間人們沒有得到滿足的欲望所催生的。當時,在計劃經濟體制下,人們只能通過分配到的購物票證購物。 ????其中,糧票很少能用來買酒。城市居民動則需要排隊數小時用現金和票證換取食用油和糧食等必需品。有些單位最多可能會額外提供節日購物票證用于購買西瓜子、咸花生和帶魚等。茅臺從未列入必需品的清單。 ????因此,當貴州茅臺面對持續的質量質疑,股價暴跌以及銷售放緩等問題時,公司迅速求助于它最有力的伙伴們。 ????在12月中旬的一個經銷商會議上,貴州茅臺推出了設定價格下限的市場配額政策。例如,這家公司要求,53度飛天茅臺的零售價不能低于1,519元每瓶。公司一位代表在會議上稱,違規的經銷商將面臨罰款或取消合同等處罰。 ????政府終于介入此事。貴州茅臺于1月16日稱,將收回“保價令”。此外,國家發展和改革委員會(the National Development and Reform Commission,簡稱:發改委 )也就有關貴州茅臺不公平做法的投訴展開了調查。 ????與此同時,中國領導層最近出現的調整可能會導致貴州茅臺核心消費者——政府官員——數量下降。由于習近平計劃推進反腐敗議程,人們猜測貴州茅臺可能會在未來 數年遭受重大打擊。幾十年來,貴州茅臺標志性的白色陶瓷瓶已經成為公款吃喝的代名詞。的確,中國“三公消費”( 指政府部門人員在因公出境經費、公務車購置及運行費、公務招待費產生的消費)經常能看到茅臺的身影。中國中央軍事委員會(China's Central Military Commission)在2012年12月發出通知,要求在接待工作中不安排豪華宴請、不飲酒等。各省級政府也發布了類似公告。 ????可以肯定的是,過去旨在減少政府官員奢侈消費的舉措都以失敗告終,但一些分析人士堅持認為,這次政府是認真的。華泰證券(Huatai Securities)1月30日發布報告稱,預計房地產、奢侈品和白酒行業將受到中國中央政府新一輪反腐敗斗爭的沖擊。 ????因此,貴州茅臺在蛇年里還會繼續苦苦掙扎嗎?也許吧,但只有這家國有企業愿意做一些改變,才可能脫離困境。不過,現在看來,它不會放棄前進的沖動,正如它現在的狀態一樣。談及該公司最近的困境時,貴州茅臺董事長袁仁國在一月下旬的一個省政府會議上稱:“雨過總會天晴?!保ㄘ敻恢形木W) ????譯者:默默 |
????Maotai is one liquor that refuses to go down easy -- on stock exchanges or otherwise. It is big-flavored and bracing, with a history that reaches back to China's Song dynasty. But recently, the popular Chinese spirit has fallen on hard times. ????It began with the discovery of toxic contaminants in other sorghum-based liquors at the end of November made by a smaller producer, Jiugui Liquor. A report in the Guangzhou-based newspaper 21st Century Business Herald led to an investigation by China's food safety regulator, which confirmed excessive levels of the plasticizer dibutyl phthalate in several of the company's products. The liquor industry in China took a beating in the stock market in the wake of the news. ????By early December, rumors began to circulate that Kweichow Moutai Co., China's biggest liquor producer by market value, was also dealing with similar contamination problems, based on test results posted by a blogger on Sina.com (these results have not been confirmed by official regulators). The Renhuai-based company took a high-handed tone in addressing the rumors, which did little to smooth things over. "Moutai does not have the obligation to, nor does it intend to, test the products in question," said a company representative in a statement. ????Kweichow Moutai's share price slid so fast that it suspended trading of its stock in mid-December. The company has seen a 28% share price drop from a peak last year in July. ????Kweichow Moutai, which is known as the "national liquor" in restaurants across China, is imbibed at high-level state banquets and still holds currency as a preferred gift for government officials. At upscale locations such as the Ritz-Carlton in Beijing, a 50-year vintage goes for $78,888 yuan (about $12,700 USD) per bottle. A bottle at a local liquor shop for the lower-end Feitian can go for roughly $1,500 yuan ($240 USD). ????Like just about any luxury brand, Kweichow Moutai differentiates itself from competitors through its aura of exclusivity. Maotai's mythical roots go back to the hillsides of Guizhou Province, when the Red Army made camp in the eponymous township during the Long March and sampled the local sorghum brew. But much of the liquor's luxury power has been fueled by unsatisfied desires stemming from a centrally planned economy that issued ration coupons for purchases from 1955 to 1993. ????The tickets, called "liangpiao," seldom covered liquor. Urbanites would wait in line for hours to exchange cash and ration tickets for staples like cooking oil and grain. At best, a work unit might add coupons for dried watermelon seeds, salted peanuts, and a ribbonfish for the holiday dinner table. Maotai never made it to the list of essentials. ????So when Kweichow Moutai came face-to-face with persistent questions over quality, a plummeting stock price, and slower sales, the company quickly leaned on its most potent associations for assistance. ????At a distributor's conference in mid-December, Kweichow Moutai rolled out market allocation policies in the form of a price-fixing plan. Among other restrictions, the popular 106-proof Feitian could not fall below 1,519 yuan per bottle at retail shops, the company decreed. A company representative stated at the conference that non-compliant dealers would be punished with either fines or cancelled contracts. ????The government finally stepped in. On January 16, Kweichow Moutai said it would retract its base price requirements. And China's top economic planner, the National Development and Reform Commission, launched an investigation into complaints of unfair practices by Kweichow Moutai. ????Meanwhile, recent changes among China's leadership may lead to a decline in Kweichow Moutai's core consumers: government officials. Xi Jinping plans to pursue an anti-corruption agenda, which has raised speculation that the Kweichow Moutai could take a major hit in the years to come. For decades, the iconic white ceramic bottle has been synonymous with long, boozy dinners paid for by the state. Indeed, Maotai falls under what is called the "three publics," a reference to expenditures by officials that include overseas visits, government vehicles, and entertainment. China's Central Military Commission announced in December that it would seek to cut down on entertainment expenses by banning expensive liquor at banquets, and provincial governments have since made similar announcements. ????To be sure, initiatives to cut down on luxury spending by government officials have failed in the past, but some analysts are adamant that the government means business this time. Brokerage firm Huatai Securities issued a report January 30 stating it expected the real estate, luxury goods, and liquor industries to take a hit amid the renewed anti-corruption campaign by China's central government. ????So will Kweichow Moutai continue to struggle during the year of the snake? Perhaps, but only if the state-owned company is willing to make some changes. For now, though, it looks like the company won't be abandoning its urge to push forward, just as it is. On the company's recent woes, Kweichow Moutai Chairman Yuan Renguo said at a provincial government meeting in late January, "After the rain always comes the sun." |