????俗話說好男人難找，但中國似乎例外，因為這個國家男性的數量遠遠超過女性。適婚/適交年齡（15-30周歲）男性與女性的比率為1.15——這種罕見的失衡導致未婚男性之間為了取悅為數不多的年輕女性而爭得你死我活。許多人渴望結婚，但始終未能如愿。

????但令人匪夷所思的是，中國未婚男性實際上一直在推動中國奇跡般的經濟增長。而哥倫比亞大學（Columbia University）教授魏尚進在一次研討會上稱，由于性別比嚴重失衡，這個趨勢可能會一直持續到未來幾年。

????性別失衡導致許多女性對生活伴侶精挑細選。當然也存在骯臟的一面：年輕女性的缺乏也導致中國部分地區賣淫嫖娼和人口拐賣行為加劇。盡管如此，自2002年男性數量開始超過女性以來，未婚男性若要結婚，首先攢足一套房子的首付已經成為一條心照不宣的潛規則。這反過來又導致男性之間的競爭達到了堪稱你死我活的地步。

????“賺錢變得越來越重要，”哥倫比亞大學Jerome A. Chazen國際商業研究院院長魏尚進稱。實際上，中國未婚男性一直在推動中國不斷增長的住房市場。去年，魏尚進與其他專家共同出版的一份研究報告顯示，全國35個主要城市房地產價值的上升，其中高達48%的部分（價值8萬億美元）與中國的性別失衡有關。

????過去10年來，中國經濟年增長率高達10%左右。魏尚進估計，同期性別失衡的貢獻率平均達到2個百分點。投資者經常揣測中國的快速增長還能延續多久，以及中國是否會出現硬著陸。

????歷史顯示，經濟增長必須放慢腳步。一般而言，人均收入達到17,000美元左右的水平之后，經濟增長率將會開始下降，每年下降大約2%。中國2011年的人均收入為5,445美元。盡管人均收入距離頂峰尚有一段距離，但中國的經濟增長已經開始下滑。2012年，中國GDP增長率從2011年的9.3%和2010年的10.4%下降到了7.8%。

????但魏尚進表示，中國的人口因素可能會抵消未來的減速。未來10年，中國的男女性別比將上升至1.2個男性比一個女性，這可能是在中國這個嚴重重男輕女的國家實施三十年計劃生育政策的眾多意外后果之一。

????當然，中國也面臨許多其他人口挑戰。包括導致勞動年齡人口短缺的人口快速老齡化。但這些阻礙將會促進經濟還是損害經濟，仍然有待觀察。（財富中文網）

????They say a good man is hard to find, but that's not the case in China, where men overwhelmingly outnumber women. The ratio of men of marriageable/dating age (15-30 years old) to every woman is 1.15 -- an unusual imbalance that's created a rat race of bachelors vying for the affections of a limited pool of young women. Many may want to marry, but never will.

????Oddly enough, China's lonely bachelors have actually helped the country experience extraordinary growth. And in the coming years, the trend will likely continue as the ratio gets progressively out of balance, said Columbia University professor Shang-Jin Wei recently at a symposium.

????Because of the imbalance, many women can cherry-pick their life partners. There's of course an ugly side, too: The shortage of young women has also driven prostitution and human trafficking in some parts of the country. Nonetheless, since men started outnumbering women in 2002, it has become almost an unspoken prerequisite for bachelors to have enough for a down payment on a home before attracting a wife. Which, in turn, has bred fierce competition among the male population.

????"Acquiring wealth becomes far more important," says Wei, director of the Jerome A. Chazen Institute of International Business at Columbia. In fact, China's bachelors helped drive its growing housing market. Last year, Wei and other experts published a study that showed up to 48% or ($8 trillion worth) of the rise in property values across 35 major cities is linked to the country's gender imbalance.

????Over the past 10 years, China's economy has grown about 10% annually. Wei estimates the gender imbalance, on average, contributed 2 percentage points annually during that period. Investors often speculate how long China can grow at such a fast pace, and whether it's in for a hard landing.

????History suggests the growth has to slow. Typically when income per capita reaches about $17,000, growth on average starts declining about 2% a year. In China, income per capita in 2011 stood at $5,445. It will be some time before it reaches its peak, but growth has already started decelerating. In 2012, GDP growth slowed to 7.8% from 9.3% in 2011 and 10.4% in 2010.

????Yet the country's demographic kink could offset future slowdown, Wein says. Over the next 10 years, the male-to-female ratio will rise to 1.2 men per woman, in part, one of the many unintended consequences of China's three-decade-old policy limiting couples to one child in a culture where parents overwhelmingly favor males over females.

????To be sure, China has many other demographic challenges. It also has a rapidly aging population, which has contributed to the shortage of working-age people. And it remains to be seen how these obstacles will help or hurt its economy.