????等到一月份的銷量數(shù)據(jù)下周出爐后，底特律的三大汽車廠商就可以開始盤算該給2013銷售季頒發(fā)多少年終獎了。2013年1月，美國的經(jīng)季節(jié)調(diào)整后按年率計算的汽車銷量預(yù)計將超過1,500萬臺——這個數(shù)字歷來是區(qū)分好壞的分水嶺。通用（General Motors）、福特（Ford）和克萊斯勒（Chrysler）在各自保住市場份額的同時，總體銷量也都有望實現(xiàn)大的飛躍。

????但是在這些脆弱的好消息之下，也掩蓋著一個令人擔(dān)憂的事實。美國三大汽車品牌如今面臨著日益區(qū)域化的風(fēng)險，它們的品牌吸引力在某些州比較強，在其它州則比較弱。更重要的是，人口統(tǒng)計趨勢和人口增長數(shù)據(jù)顯示，隨著時間的推移，品牌區(qū)域化的傾向會越來越嚴(yán)重。這些品牌可能會扎根于各自的核心市場，在其它地區(qū)卻很難獲得突破性的進(jìn)展。

????這是一種危險的現(xiàn)象，因為它限制了美國廠商保持現(xiàn)有市場份額的能力——更不用說在現(xiàn)有市場占有率的基礎(chǔ)上有所突破了。同時，它也為進(jìn)口品牌提供了更多的機會。雖說通用、福特和克萊斯勒賺的錢大部分都留在了美國，但進(jìn)口品牌也在為美國創(chuàng)造工作崗位，只是他們的企業(yè)利潤都流向了海外。

????通過汽車網(wǎng)站Edmunds.com近日提供給我的分析數(shù)據(jù)可以看出，如果把汽車的銷量情況按州劃分，則底特律三巨頭所生產(chǎn)的汽車可以稱作“紅州”車，紅色也就是共和黨的代表色。他們的擁護群體也是同一群人，支持美國本地車的粉絲很多集中在美國的中部地區(qū)，他們在最近的總統(tǒng)選舉中基本都把選票投給了共和黨。

????而進(jìn)口車在“藍(lán)州”——也就是民主黨的地盤表現(xiàn)得更搶眼，那兒的居民大多把總統(tǒng)選票投給了民主黨。

????從地緣分布來看，情況對美國國產(chǎn)車不利。“紅州”一般更荒涼，人口更稀少，而且增長速度也不及美國其它地區(qū)。而“藍(lán)州”一般更城市化，更有活力，而且涌向“藍(lán)州”的新人口也更多。

????這可不是個好消息。如果品牌影響力被限制在“紅州”，就會減緩汽車銷量，使廠商難以吸引年輕買家。同時它也為產(chǎn)品開發(fā)人員帶來了問題，因為他們設(shè)計的新車型必須能夠征服新顧客，同時又不得罪老顧客。這也解釋了為什么進(jìn)口品牌在油電混合動力等新技術(shù)上一直走在前頭，而美國本土品牌大部分時間都在追趕。

????早在十幾年前，美國本土品牌就想打破籠罩在他們頭上多年的“紅州”魔咒了，比如隔三岔五就會有美國廠商力圖在加利福尼亞州發(fā)力，希望打開市場，然而始終沒有嘗試成功。底特律一位資深內(nèi)幕人士告訴我：“我們對此極為擔(dān)心。”

????我們不妨看一下美國車占市場比重最大的十個州是哪些。據(jù)Edmunds.com的數(shù)據(jù)，它們的排名是：密歇根、北達(dá)科他、南達(dá)科他、愛荷華、懷俄明、蒙大拿、內(nèi)布拉斯加、俄克拉荷馬、阿肯色、印第安那。這十個州的共同特征是，它們的人口都比較穩(wěn)定，而且越來越少，導(dǎo)致這些州經(jīng)常被全國性媒體忽略，而且它們對廣域社會趨勢所產(chǎn)生的影響也相對較小。

????When January car sales are announced next week, Detroit automakers can start sizing up their year-end bonuses for 2013. The seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) for the month is forecast to exceed 15 million cars and trucks -- the traditional dividing line that separates good times from bad. General Motors(GM, Fortune 500), Ford (F, Fortune 500), and Chrysler are all expected to post big jumps in overall sales, as well as hold their own in market share.

????But underneath the gauzy good news lies an unpleasant fact. The brands of the Big Three are in danger of becoming regionalized, their appeal strong in some parts of the country and weak in others. What's more, demographic trends and population growth suggest they will grow only more regionalized over time, rooted in their core markets but unable to meaningfully expand beyond them over time.

????That's dangerous because it limits Detroit automakers' ability to hold on to their current levels of market share -- much less build on them -- as it creates more opportunities for import brands. And while every dollar made by GM, Ford, or Chrysler largely remains in the U.S., import brands provide jobs here too, but their corporate profits go overseas.

????State-by-state sales data, analyzed and provided to me by Edmunds.com, strongly indicates that cars made by the Detroit Three are largely red state cars, popular with the same people, many in the heartland, who voted Republican in the last presidential election.

????Imports, by contrast, perform far more strongly in the blue states, where the majority of votes were cast by the Democrats.

????This geographic division does not favor the domestics. Red states tend to be more rural, less populated, and slower-growing than the rest of the country. Blue states, on the other hand, are more urban, more dynamic, and benefit from a greater influx of new population.

????That's not good. Being confined to red states slows sales growth and makes it difficult to attract younger buyers. It also creates problems for product planners, because they have to come up with designs that can help conquest new customers without alienating older buyers. That helps explain why import brands have been leaders in new technologies like hybrid gas-electric powertrains, and new product segments like compact crossovers, while domestics have been largely fast-followers.

????The domestics have been trying to break out of their red state box for a decade or more, sporadically trying, for instance, to boost sales in California. Their inability to do so has become a subject of frustration. One well-placed Detroit insider told me, "We are terribly concerned about it."

????Take a look at the 10 states that have the highest proportion of domestic sales, according to Edmunds.com data. They are, in order: Michigan, North and South Dakota, Iowa, Wyoming, Montana, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Indiana. The common characteristics they share are stable or declining populations, being mostly ignored by the national media, and having relatively little impact on broader societal trends.