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音樂不要錢會怎么樣

音樂不要錢會怎么樣

Dan Mitchell 2013-02-01
音樂采用流媒體形式播放時給藝術家帶來的收益非常之少。業內人士披露,就算音樂流播放一百萬次,產生的收益可能也只有幾千美元,甚至更少。就算如此,發燒友還是不滿意,大家都想免費下載音樂。如果這樣,音樂行業未來怎么贏利?

????周二, 流媒體音樂服務商Pandora公司的股價出現下跌。韋德布什證券(Wedbush Securities)分析師邁克爾?帕切特將其“跑贏大盤”評級下調為“中性”。之后,這家音樂流媒體服務公司更是一蹶不振。周三上午,它的股價出現小幅回升。有報道稱蘋果公司(Apple)即將推出音樂流媒體服務,帕切特提到Pandora面臨著這方面的競爭。他指出這只是該公司面臨的“逆風”之一。

????而Pandora和整個音樂行業所面臨的最強逆風乃是錄制音樂市場價格的持續下降——不管價錢是由用戶支付還是由廣告商支付。無論音樂以什么方式實現交付,一個鐵的事實是,數量越來越多的用戶不再希望為音樂付費,或者說,至少是不希望花費太多。廣告費率處于非常低的水平,尤其是在人們越來越青睞流媒體音樂的移動平臺。

????因此,流媒體用戶受到了擠壓,而唱片公司和藝術家也是一樣。《紐約時報》(The New York Times)的本?西薩里奧周一撰文探討了這樣一種現象,即當音樂進行流播放時,除了最受歡迎的藝術家以外,其他人從中獲得的收益非常之少。即使音樂流播放一百萬次,產生的收益可能也只有幾千美元,甚至更少。在周二發表的后續博客文章中,西薩里奧提出了一個重大、而且至今仍然懸而未決的問題:人們還會繼續希望擁有自己的音樂嗎?或者未來就在于流媒體這個偉大的“天國點唱機”(celestial jukebox)?問題的答案將幫助確定音樂行業能夠預期獲得哪種類型的收益。而且,這還沒有考慮音樂行業周邊的很多法律問題,比如如何針對不同的流媒體用戶和廣播電臺(包括網絡和線下的)制定版稅稅率。

????一些觀察人士指出,上世紀80年代CD問世的時候,藝術家們同樣受到了擠壓。CD被看成是特種產品,在一開始的時候,藝術家只能從CD銷售中獲得相對較少(如果有的話)的收益。CD迅速成為最受青睞的音樂格式后,一切都改變了,而音樂行業也出現復興,并在上世紀90年代末達到了頂峰。樂觀的人認為,這個行業的這段歷史也會因為在線音樂再次重演。

????Shares of Pandora fell on Tuesday and stayed down after Wedbush Securities analyst Michael Pachter downgraded the music-streamer's stock from "outperform" to "neutral." Shares were recovering slightly on Wednesday morning. Pachter cited competition from Apple's reportedly forthcoming music-streaming service. That was just one of the "headwinds" facing Pandora, he noted.

????But the strongest headwind facing not only Pandora (P) but the entire music business is the continued fall of the market price of recorded music, whether that price is paid by listeners or by advertisers. No matter which type of delivery, the hard fact is that a growing segment of the audience no longer expects to pay for music, or at least expects to not pay much. Ad rates, particularly on the mobile platforms that people increasingly favor for streaming music, are in the basement.

????So the streamers are squeezed, but so are the music labels and the artists. The New York Times' Ben Sisario on Monday examined how little all but the most popular artists earn when their music is streamed. Even a million listens might yield just a few thousand dollars or less. In a followup blog post on Tuesday, Sisario noted a big, so-far-unanswered question: Will people continue to want to own their own music, or does the future lie in streaming -- the great "celestial jukebox?" The answer will help determine what kinds of revenues the industry can expect to earn. And that doesn't even take into account the many legal questions surrounding the music industry, such as how to set royalty rates for the various kinds of streamers and radio outfits (both on the Internet and off).

????Some observers note that artists were similarly squeezed when CDs came along in the '80s. CDs were considered specialty products, and at first, artists got relatively little, if any, money from their sale. That all changed as CDs quickly became the favored format, and the music business saw a renaissance that peaked in the late '90s. The same thing will happen with online music, the optimists argue.

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