????奢侈品市場(chǎng)是否會(huì)褪去浮華？普拉達(dá)（Prada）、路易威登集團(tuán)【LVMH，旗下?lián)碛新芬淄牵↙ouis Vitton）、湯瑪仕?品客（Thomas Pink）、凱歌香檳（Veuve Clicquot）等品牌）和歷峰集團(tuán)（Richemont，旗下?lián)碛锌ǖ貋啠–artier）品牌】等公司的股票看上去就像這些公司銷售的奢侈品一樣光彩照人。過去幾年，在中國(guó)消費(fèi)者的帶動(dòng)下，這些公司的股票翻了近一番。但如今，中國(guó)消費(fèi)者的購(gòu)買熱潮似乎正在退去，而它可能影響奢侈品公司的股票表現(xiàn)。

????奢侈品行業(yè)股票通常被視為防御性投資產(chǎn)品。即便是在經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退期間，有錢人也會(huì)購(gòu)買昂貴的手提包和金燦燦的腕表。但在過去幾年，奢侈品公司開始將目標(biāo)擴(kuò)大到“引領(lǐng)型買家”——即年收入在30,000美元至100,000美元之間的群體。雖然中產(chǎn)階級(jí)每次購(gòu)買的花費(fèi)遠(yuǎn)不及真正的富豪，但渴望變成富人的人卻要多得多。這便是所謂的積少成多。

????這些人便成為奢侈品牌有利可圖的全新消費(fèi)群體，尤其是在中產(chǎn)階級(jí)迅速壯大的中國(guó)。近期，據(jù)高盛（Goldman Sachs）估算，中產(chǎn)階級(jí)約占全球奢侈品消費(fèi)人群的38%。而來自中國(guó)的奢侈品消費(fèi)開支更高，人均消費(fèi)782美元，年均消費(fèi)241美元。中國(guó)潛在的中產(chǎn)階級(jí)消費(fèi)市場(chǎng)從1995年的100萬人已經(jīng)擴(kuò)大到今天的3,700萬人。而據(jù)高盛預(yù)測(cè)，至2025年，這個(gè)市場(chǎng)將增長(zhǎng)到2.56億人，復(fù)合年增長(zhǎng)率為14.1%。

????奢侈品公司的股票也反應(yīng)了這個(gè)增長(zhǎng)趨勢(shì)。自2011年秋，普拉達(dá)公司股票上漲超過140%，歷峰集團(tuán)股票的漲幅也接近75%。彭博歐洲奢侈品指數(shù)（Bloomberg European Luxury Goods Index）總體漲幅超過50%，其中包括托德斯（Tod's）和薩瓦爾多?菲拉格慕（Salvatore Ferragamo）等其他公司的股票。而同期道瓊斯工業(yè)平均指數(shù)（Dow Jones Industrial Average）漲幅約為30%。

????然而，有批評(píng)家基于多個(gè)理由質(zhì)疑這種增長(zhǎng)能否持續(xù)。首先，中國(guó)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的繁榮造就了一大批富人。但中國(guó)執(zhí)行的是非常嚴(yán)格的抵押貸款制度，例如個(gè)人無追索權(quán)貸款和高首付比例等。過去幾年，這些規(guī)定限制了買家，造成房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)供大于求。房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)逐漸衰弱，可能削弱中國(guó)中產(chǎn)階級(jí)的購(gòu)買力。

????雖然到目前為止，奢侈品市場(chǎng)減速的跡象尚不明顯，但瑞士聯(lián)合銀行（UBS）已經(jīng)發(fā)出了警告。中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家王濤（音譯）在2011年3月的一份報(bào)告中指出：“鑒于房地產(chǎn)與建筑行業(yè)的龐大規(guī)模，及其在推動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)中的重要作用，只要因政策或資產(chǎn)偏好發(fā)生變化導(dǎo)致房地產(chǎn)需求‘退熱’，就都有可能導(dǎo)致中國(guó)總體經(jīng)濟(jì)硬著陸。”

????此外還有其他一些更為復(fù)雜的因素。在中國(guó)，有人購(gòu)買奢侈品作為禮物，向地方官員換取房地產(chǎn)項(xiàng)目。而中國(guó)政府正在下大力氣減少“送禮”行為。而且，零售商還不得不應(yīng)付其他一些“中國(guó)特色”。例如，與日本不同，中國(guó)奢侈品購(gòu)買者以男性為主，這種傳統(tǒng)由來已久。雖然有人成這種狀況正在發(fā)生變化，但男性消費(fèi)者對(duì)產(chǎn)品的忠誠(chéng)度不如女性，或者說，他們不會(huì)“盲目”消費(fèi)。

????Is the glitz about to come off the luxury market? Stocks of companies like Prada, LVMH (owner of Louis Vuitton, Thomas Pink, Veuve Clicquot) and Richemont (owner of Cartier) look like they are costing some bling. Chinese consumers have helped some of them nearly double over the last couple of years. But some Chinese buyers look set to take a break, and this could hurt stock prices.

????Luxury stocks are often thought of as a defensive investment. Wealthy people buy fancy handbags and glittery watches even during a recession. But over the past several years, luxury companies branched out by targeting"aspirational buyers" -- those with income between $30,000 and $100,000 a year. Though the middle class hardly spends as much per purchase, there are simply more aspiring rich than actual rich. The masses add up to quite a lot.

????This has been a lucrative new group for luxury brands, particularly in China where there is now a burgeoning middle class. Middle class accounts for 38% of global luxury goods spending, according to recent estimates from Goldman Sachs. These purchasers in China spend more too, $782 on average versus $241 annually. China's potential market for middle class buyers has gone from 1 million people in 1995 to 37 million today. Goldman expects it to grow to 256 million in 2025, at a CAGR of 14.1%.

????Stocks have reflected this growth. Prada (PRDSY) is up more than 140% since fall 2011. Richemont is up nearly 75%. Overall the Bloomberg European Luxury Goods Index, which includes other stocks like Tod's and Salvatore Ferragamo, is up more than 50%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has risen about 30% over the same period.

????But critics question if the growth can continue, for several reasons. First, China's housing boom has helped line some pockets. But the country has more stringent mortgage restrictions, such as recourse loans for individuals and high down payments. These stipulations have curtailed buyers over the past few years, creating an oversupply of building. Any decline in this market could chip away at the buying power of some middle-class Chinese.

????That slowdown isn't showing yet, but UBS has been warning about its risks for a while. "Given the sheer size of the property and construction sector and its heavy role in driving growth, even just having housing demand 'fade away' because of changes in policy or asset preferences could already lead to a hard landing of the overall economy," said China economist Tao Wang in a March 2011 report.

????There are other complications as well. Some people were buying luxury products as presents for local officials in exchange for rights to build. But the Chinese government is making strides to cut down on the practice of "gifting." And retailers have to grapple with other idiosyncrasies. For example, unlike in Japan, historically Chinese luxury goods buyers are mostly men. Though some say this is changing, men may not be quite as loyal -- or spontaneous -- customers.