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波音夢想飛機注定有此一劫

波音夢想飛機注定有此一劫

Shelley DuBois 2013-01-24
波音787夢想飛機雖然出現了一系列故障和推遲,但這些似乎是如今的飛機制造業推出新機型的道路上必經的磨難。而且,實事求是地講,目前或許沒有其他公司能做得比它更好。

????這里不是萊特兄弟試飛第一架飛機的俄亥俄州小鷹鎮。任何掌握尖端飛機制造技術的制造商需要的遠遠不只是兩顆聰明的腦瓜和一架滑翔機那么簡單。以波音最新的787夢想飛機為例:要想讓這樣一架飛機升空,波音必須與政府監管機構以及900多家承包商通力合作才行。這意味著上噸重量的活動部件。顯然,并不是所有零部件都是合格的。夢想飛機在2011年完成首次商業飛行,比原定日期晚了將近三年。由于近期波音787夢想飛機遭遇了一系列故障,而其中大部分很可能電路和電池組有關。因此今年1月16日,美國聯邦航空管理局(FAA)暫停了正在美國投入使用的6架波音787夢想飛機的運營,直到調查人員確認它們的安全性之后才能重新服役。而可能導致故障的電路和電池問題對于民航業來說都是新問題。

????媒體對于波音787的故障絲毫不留情面,新聞標題上充斥著“夢想”變“噩夢”這樣的字眼。但787客機的問題究竟反映的是波音的管理失誤,抑或它們只是研發一款現代客機難以避免的成本之一?

????目前,波音和空客(Airbus)是唯一有能力生產大型高科技民用飛機的兩家公司。兩家公司分別在研發生產一些新型號的飛機,而且各有不同的專攻重點。波音公司相信,市場需要像787夢想飛機這樣的快速、輕型客機。而空客則相信市場想購買大型飛機——比如它的空客A350XWB客機最多可安裝440個座位。空客A350家族預計將在2014年投放市場,盡管已知下線時間將會延遲。

????弗吉尼亞大學達頓商學院(University of Virginia's Darden School of Business)教授勞爾?卡奧說:“這是一項龐大復雜的項目。就像我們重新裝修廚房時一樣,它們很可能超出原定的時間和預算。”

????波音787夢想飛機的部分動力來自一塊鋰離子電池,它的電力系統和任何其它民航客機都不一樣。同時它的機身是用復合材料制成的,比市場上其它機型的材料要輕。這些特點使夢想飛機的油耗要比同等尺寸的民航客機節省15%到20%。

????這些賣點同時也為波音帶來了重大的技術挑戰,甚至就連波音這個擁有570億美元市值的龐大企業也很難憑借一己之力去解決。與洛克希德-馬丁(Lockheed Martin)等航空公司相比,波音自造零件所占的比重更大。即便這樣,波音也把787夢想飛機70%的生產工作外包了出去。

????This ain't Kitty Hawk. Any aircraft creator on the cutting edge of technology needs much more than two brilliant men and a glider. Take Boeing's new 787 Dreamliner plane: Boeing had to work in concert with government regulators and more than 900 subcontractors to get this project off the ground. That is a ton of moving parts.

????Not all of those parts were up to snuff, apparently. The Dreamliner made its commercial debut in 2011, nearly three years behind schedule. On January 16, the FAA grounded the line's six active planes operating in the U.S. until investigators say they're safe to fly. The planes were grounded following a series of issues most likely related to defects in the model's electrical wiring and battery packs, both of which are spanking new to commercial aviation.

????The press has been rough, having fun with dream-to-nightmare headlines. But do the Dreamliner's problems reflect a management misstep at Boeing (BA), or are they simply the cost of building a modern plane?

????Boeing and Airbus are the only companies with the capabilities to build large, high-tech commercial planes. Each company has new models in the works, and each focuses on a different feature. Boeing made a bet that the market would want quick, light planes like the Dreamliner. Airbus made a bet that buyers would want big planes – its new aircraft, the A350 XWB can be configured to have up to 440 seats. The A350 family is set to hit the market in 2014, although it has faced rollout delays.

????"They're just massively complex projects," says Raul Chao, a professor at University of Virginia's Darden School of Business. "That means that, just like when you're remodeling your kitchen, they will go over budget and over time."

????The Dreamliner is powered, in part, by a lithium-ion battery, and its electrical system is unlike any other commercial aircraft. It is also built with composite materials, which are lighter than those used in other planes on the market. All these features enable the Dreamliner to burn about 15-20% less fuel than a commercial craft of comparable size.

????Those bells and whistles created a massive technical challenge beyond what even a company like Boeing, with a $57 billion market cap, can address on its own. Boeing, which builds more of its planes' own parts than other aerospace companies such as Lockheed Martin (LMT), outsourced 70% of the construction of the 787.

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