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摩根士丹利業績飄紅要謝低利率

摩根士丹利業績飄紅要謝低利率

Stephen Gandel 2013-01-22
摩根士丹利2012年第四季度業績顯著高于華爾街預期,背后很重要的一個原因就是目前的低利率經濟環境。不過,盈利能力和薪酬水平仍然是這家投資銀行面臨的兩大問題。數字顯示,這家大銀行仍然沒有完全走出困境。
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摩根士丹利CEO高文

????低利率和公司貸款等需求上升推動摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)2012年第四季度的業績好于預期。

????經過一項債務會計調整后,摩根士丹利持續經營業務收益近9億美元,合每股0.45美元,顯著高于分析師們此前預期的0.27美元。收益數據較上年同期的虧損近4億美元也大為改觀。剔除債務調整,公司營收也好于預期,達到了75億美元。

????2012全年,經上述會計調整后,這家投資銀行的持續經營業務收入為30億美元,較上一年的略微虧損大幅改觀。投資者受到業績的鼓舞,當日開盤后不久,摩根士丹利的股價便上漲近6%。

????在此之前,美國其他大銀行公布的業績也大多積極。富國銀行(Wells Fargo)、高盛(Goldman Sachs)、美國銀行(Bank of America)公布的2012年最后三個月的業績都好于預期。迎來新任CEO、最近宣布將裁員11,000人的花旗集團(Citigroup)是唯一的一家季度業績不及預期的大銀行。

????華爾街總體交易環境的改善給摩根士丹利帶來了福音。但它最大的業績增長動力還是來自于希望利用低利率、擴大融資的公司等。債券承銷費用第四季度同比上漲 了85%。總體上,銷售和交易收入上漲了近50%。摩根士丹利債券和商品業務的大幅改善也是一個重要因素。這塊業務此前一直低迷,情況直到最近才發生改變。

????不過,業績報告同時也顯示,在金融危機后時代的華爾街,這家公司仍然沒有完全走出困境。摩根士丹利的權益回報率(一個重要的盈利能力指標)僅為3.2%。這個數字比競爭對手高盛可差遠了。高盛上周三公布了業績,它的權益回報率已回升至11%。

????而且,摩根士丹利有近1/3的營收來自于所謂的自營交易。將來這些收入可能會部分或全部消失。新法規擬禁止摩根士丹利和其他銀行將自有資金用于高風險押注。但相關法規尚未完全敲定,至少一年內應該還不會生效。另外,最近開始回升的利率可能終結債券發行給摩根士丹利帶來的增長。

????Low interest rates and an increased desire by corporations and others to borrow powered Morgan Stanley to better-than-expected earnings in the last quarter of 2012.

????Morgan Stanley earned nearly $900 million, or $0.45 a share, from continuing operations and after an accounting adjustment for its debt. That was much better than the $0.27 a share analysts expected. Earnings were also up compared to a year ago, when the company lost nearly $400 million. Revenue, excluding the adjustment for its debt, was also better than expected at $7.5 billion.

????For all of 2012, the investment bank earned just over $3 billion from continuing operations and after the adjustment. That was up from a slight loss a year ago. Investors cheered the results. Shares of Morgan Stanley (MS) were up nearly 6% shortly after the market opened.

????Morgan Stanley's earnings results follow a string of mostly positive reports from other large banks. Wells Fargo (WFC), Goldman Sachs (GS) and Bank of America (BAC) all reported better than expected earnings for the last three months of 2012. Citigroup (C), which has a new CEO and recently announced that it would cut 11,000 employees, was the only bank to disappoint for the quarter.

????Morgan Stanley benefited from a better environment for deals on Wall Street in general. But it got its biggest boost from corporations and others looking to take advantage of low-interest rates. Bond underwriting fees rose 85% in the fourth quarter from the same period a year ago. Overall, sales and trading revenue was up nearly 50%. That, too, was propelled by a large improvement in Morgan's bond and commodities business, which had struggled until recently.

????Still, the report showed signs that the firm continued to struggle in the new, post-financial-crisis Wall Street. Morgan Stanley's return on equity, a key measure of profitability, was a measly 3.2%. That was much worse than rival Goldman Sachs (GS), which reported earnings on Wednesday. Goldman's ROE rebounded to 11%.

????What's more, nearly a third of Morgan Stanley's revenue came from so-called principal transactions. Some or all of that revenue might be going away. New regulations seek to ban Morgan Stanley and other banks from making risky bets with their own money. The regulations aren't finalized, though, and don't go into effect for at least another year. Also, interest rates, which have been rising recently, might put an end to the debt issuance boosting Morgan Stanley.

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