????新年快樂

????很快，汽車業(yè)的目光就將聚焦到底特律，北美國際車展（North American International Auto Show）即將在此盛大開幕。本屆車展上，汽車業(yè)的大佬們將為各種令人激動(dòng)的全新車型揭開面紗，對(duì)市場(chǎng)份額做充滿希望的預(yù)測(cè)——預(yù)測(cè)的份額加起來將超過100%——同時(shí)祈禱人們忘了他們一年前這個(gè)時(shí)候做的那些落空的預(yù)言。

????人們關(guān)注的焦點(diǎn)轉(zhuǎn)移，這是西歐廠商樂于見到的情形。西歐近期發(fā)生的各種事件可謂在悲劇和鬧劇之間大起大落，使各大廠商的運(yùn)勢(shì)判若云泥。法國的廠商一直深陷衰退，同時(shí)苦于產(chǎn)能過剩，目前正想方設(shè)法努力止損；而德國的一些廠商卻似乎凱歌高奏，輕而易舉地迎來一個(gè)又一個(gè)勝利。在新年發(fā)生的一系列事件中，又冒出來一件讓大家意想不到的荒唐事，福特公司（Ford）的一位前高管被控向前妻隱匿上千萬美元，為此將面臨牢獄之災(zāi)。

????本文將列舉一些不如人意的情況，當(dāng)然也會(huì)談到一些亮點(diǎn)。

????西歐經(jīng)濟(jì)陷困境

????繼糟糕的一年之后，西歐的汽車銷售雪上加霜，12月猛跌了16.2%。整個(gè)歐洲的車市處于近20年來的最低點(diǎn)。需求劇降，加之長(zhǎng)期產(chǎn)能過剩，正將幾家汽車廠商逼向絕境，而在未來數(shù)月間，它們預(yù)計(jì)將面臨更加痛苦的處境。最新預(yù)測(cè)稱，2013年西歐的汽車銷售將繼續(xù)萎縮3%到5%。

????標(biāo)致很受傷

????沒有哪家廠商比標(biāo)致雪鐵龍集團(tuán)（PSA Peugeot Citro?n，下簡(jiǎn)稱PSA）傷得更深了。作為一度高踞西歐市場(chǎng)份額第二的強(qiáng)大企業(yè)，這家法國車企的市場(chǎng)份額已跌至12.7%。去年，它的股價(jià)下跌了44%，目前公司正在大筆燒錢。本來PSA在南歐市場(chǎng)占有很大份額，但這一地區(qū)恰恰是經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的重災(zāi)區(qū)。它法國的市場(chǎng)萎縮了13.3%，西班牙市場(chǎng)萎縮了14.9%，意大利市場(chǎng)也重挫了20.9%。據(jù)新上臺(tái)的法國社會(huì)黨政府稱，過去20年來，PSA犯了戰(zhàn)略性失誤，即沒有拓展國際市場(chǎng)。曾經(jīng)想過要在美國買一輛標(biāo)致或雪鐵龍的消費(fèi)者對(duì)此應(yīng)該都深有體會(huì)。

????標(biāo)致脫困遭遇官僚困境

????為了恢復(fù)生機(jī)，PSA推出了總額高達(dá)240億美元的再融資計(jì)劃，其中包括100億美元的國債擔(dān)保。這項(xiàng)計(jì)劃本來只是一個(gè)純債務(wù)融資計(jì)劃，但現(xiàn)在卻被視為資產(chǎn)重組，意味著它必須經(jīng)過歐盟（EU）位于布魯塞爾的公平競(jìng)爭(zhēng)委員會(huì)（competition authorities）的審核。如果監(jiān)管層認(rèn)為這項(xiàng)財(cái)政援助違反了歐盟競(jìng)爭(zhēng)法，則PSA可能會(huì)被迫在已有讓步的基礎(chǔ)上再次做出讓步，比如取消分紅和獎(jiǎng)金，在董事會(huì)中安排政府指派人員等。

????標(biāo)致與歐寶的合作仍需數(shù)年才會(huì)有收益

????標(biāo)致在努力自救的過程中曾與通用汽車（General Motors）旗下的歐寶（Opel）結(jié)盟，以便在采購和工程上每年削減20億美元的成本。但這個(gè)聯(lián)盟究竟能帶來什么好處，雙方仍在靜靜觀望。2012年頭11個(gè)月，隨著歐寶在歐洲市場(chǎng)的份額從7.3%跌至6.7%，PSA的份額也隨之從12.5%跌到11.7%。這兩家公司都急于脫困，但它們聯(lián)合開發(fā)的首款車型要到2016年才能面市。通用汽車的首席執(zhí)行官丹?埃克森坦承，由于雙方在開發(fā)一些新車型上存在“諸多變數(shù)”，因此合作進(jìn)程推進(jìn)緩慢。

????Happy New Year

????In less than 72 hours, the attention of the automotive world will laser in on Detroit, scene of the North American International Auto Show. There, the car world's top executives will unveil exciting new models, make hopeful projections about market share that collectively add up to more than 100%, and hope that no one remembers their failed forecasts from a year ago.

????The shift in focus is welcome in Western Europe, where fortunes are sharply divided as recent events have ricocheted between tragedy and farce. Mired in a deep recession and burdened with overcapacity, automakers in France are frantically trying to stop their bleeding, while some of their German counterparts seem to skip easily from triumph to triumph. Adding an unexpected note of folly to the New Year's events was the jail sentence handed down to a former top Ford executive accused of hiding a multimillion dollar fortune from his ex-wife.

????Here are some of the lowlights -- and a couple highlights for good measure.

????Western Europe's economic woes

????Capping what has been a miserable year, car sales in Western Europe hit the down escalator in December, falling 16.2%. The European market is at its lowest level in nearly 20 years. Slumping demand, in connection with chronic overcapacity, is driving several automakers to the brink, and more pain is forecast in the coming months. New estimates suggest that Western European sales will shrink another 3% to 5% in 2013.

????Peugeot is bleeding

????Nobody is hurting worse than PSA Peugeot Citro?n. Once a strong No. 2 in West Europe, the French automaker's market share has fallen to 12.7%. Its stock price has fallen 44% in the past year, and the company has been burning cash. PSA has a particularly large presence in Southern Europe, which has been hit hard by recession. Its market is down 13.3% in France, 14.9% in Spain, and a bruising 20.9% in Italy." According to the newly installed French socialist government, PSA made strategic mistakes over the past 20 years by not expanding internationally -- which anybody who has tried to buy a Peugeot or Citro?n in the U.S. would know first-hand.

????Peugeot bailout snarled in red tape

????To get rolling again, PSA has put out together a $24 billion refinancing plan, which includes $10 billion in state loan guarantees. The plan was initially presented as a pure debt refinancing, but now it is being viewed as a restructuring, which means it has to be examined by EU competition authorities in Brussels. If regulators decide the assistance violates EU competition law, PSA could be forced to make concessions on top of those it has already made, such as the elimination of dividends and bonuses, and the placement of a government appointee on its board of directors.

????An Opel payoff for Peugeot is years away

????In its struggle to save itself, Peugeot arranged an alliance General Motors' Opel, to save $2 billion a year in purchasing and engineering. They're both still waiting to see the benefits of that union. PSA's European market share in the first 11 months of 2012 fell from 12.5% to 11.7% as Opel's dropped from 7.3% to 6.7%. Both companies are in a hurry to get healthy, but the first jointly developed models won't hit the streets until 2016. GM (GM, Fortune 500) CEO Dan Akerson admits the two automakers have been slow to work together because of "a lot of variability" between how the two wanted to engineer some new models.