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小布什智囊談政治

小布什智囊談政治

Shelley DuBois 2013-01-08
卡爾?羅夫是美國共和黨的大腦和靈魂,是小布什連續贏得兩次美國總統大選的幕后大功臣。他在美國政界具有神一般的地位。最近,他對話《財富》雜志,暢談了其領導的超級政治行動委員會以及最新一屆總統選舉。

????有效的競選能夠展現出候選人最好的一面,而非塑造一個顧問認為民眾希望看到的理想形象。

????選民們說到底也是希望做出正確的選擇。真實非常重要。????

??? 剛剛過去的這次大選非常辛苦。你現在還喜歡你做的事情嗎?

????我喜歡“解謎”的說法。這個謎面是“如何將某人從他們現在所在的地方,帶到終點?”另外,有意思的一點是,這是一個協同合作的過程。

????領導超級PAC,與組織一場競選有何不同?

????決策會更容易些。競選是候選人的表達。因此,你會有朋友、顧問、配偶和一位踏上競選路的候選人,需要一些時間來消化你提出的建議。

????在超級PAC世界中,復雜性大大降低,因此也更吸引人一點。

????談談你自己吧,似乎有些人認為你無所不能。

????是有這樣的說法。我是個傳說,不是一個人。

????為什么會這樣?

????我不知道。我想,可能這么想更容易些。政治科學家們有個詞叫“以偏概全”。“以偏概全”是一種理解的捷徑,藉此人們可以理解某人或某事的更多方面。

????這對你有利嗎?

????你知道嗎?事實就是這樣。我做不了什么,也改變不了這一點。

????我還得問問福克斯那場關于競選結果的報道。據稱,這對你的職業生涯是一大打擊,你這么看嗎?

????福克斯的人認為這是一個好的電視節目。他們想有一個機會,解釋他們是如何做出判斷的。他們坐在那兒說:“我們已經打電話給俄亥俄州,那里有991張選票可分別投給兩位候選人。”他們很明智地說:“我們對我們的專家預測小組有信心,但還是請卡爾來談談他的擔憂。他的擔憂合情合理——我們得把它說出來,這也是一個學習機會。”

????譯者:早稻米

????Effective campaigns take the candidate at his or her natural best and put it on display, they don't mold a candidate into the ideal image of what the consultant thinks the people want to hear.

????Voters, at the end of the day, are trying to do the right thing. Authenticity matters a lot.

????This last election was exhausting. Do you still like what you do?

????I enjoy the idea of a puzzle. And the puzzle is, "how do you take someone from where they are and get hem to the end?" It's also interesting because it's a collaborative process.

????How is leading a super PAC different from organizing a campaign?

????Decision-making tends to be easier. Campaigns are the expression of their candidates. So you'll have friends and advisors and spouses and a candidate who's on a campaign trail and needs time to absorb the information you're proposing.

????It's just a lot less complicated and, as a result, a little bit more seductive in a super PAC world.

????What about you? There is a kind of mythology around your power.

????There is. I'm a myth, not a human being.

????Why is that?

????I have no idea. I think it's just easier. Political scientists use the term heuristics. Heuristics are shortcuts to understanding something broader about somebody or something.

????Does that ever work to your advantage?

????You know what? It is what it is. There's little or nothing I can do to change it.

????I have to ask about the Fox broadcast of the election results. That was reported as a blow to your career, do you see it that way?

????The Fox people thought it was good TV. They wanted an opportunity to explain how they arrive at a decision. They're sitting there saying, "We've now called Ohio and there's 991 votes separating the two candidates." So they wisely said, "We have confidence in our decision desk, but let's get Karl to voice this concern. It's a legitimate concern -- let's voice it and let's use this as a teachable moment."

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