買房經濟壓力上升

????五年前，美國住宅市場泡沫破裂，造就了最廉價的買入時機。房地產網站Trulia的租賃與購房報告顯示，在美國很多地方，哪怕是像紐約、火奴魯魯等價格最貴的市場中，購房成本也已低于租房。按揭貸款利率創下新低，也使得買房更能承受。

????但這種情況正在發生變化。房價在2012年觸底回升。這一刻終于到來！雖然這告訴我們房地產市場在復蘇，但也意味著2013年買房壓力將上升。11月份，賣房掛牌價同比上漲3.8%，為2007年住房市場崩潰以來最大的同比漲幅之一。雖然全美范圍內房租漲幅仍快于房價漲幅，但在Trulia調查的25個最大租房市場（包括丹佛、西雅圖和舊金山）中，有14個市場的這個趨勢已經扭轉。

漲不漲別看房價，看就業率

????大多數人都會看房價來衡量住宅市場健康與否。但這并不適用于2012年。價格上漲不一定意味著行業整體好轉。Trulia的首席經濟學家杰德?科爾科表示，要看明年房市怎么樣更好的辦法是看就業增長率。

????拉斯維加斯、邁阿密和鳳凰城等城市的房價已經大漲，但漲勢能持續多久并不清楚。房價上漲一部分是因為過去跌了太多，還有一部分是因為很多住房仍處于止贖程序中。這些城市也處于全美一些失業率最高的州，失業率與人們的購買能力息息相關。

????科爾科列出了他預測的2013年最健康的10個市場。得克薩斯州的城市占了大部分，讓我們祝賀它吧。

貸款拖欠率下降（非常緩慢地）

????陷入困境的美國房地產市場存在的一大問題就是創紀錄的止贖水平。因此，經濟學家們非常關注貸款拖欠率；房屋所有人拖欠還款是止贖的先兆。全美范圍內，按揭貸款拖欠率自2006年的1.49%連漲12個季度后，在2009年的最后三個月達到了6.89%的峰值。

????截至最近的一個季度，拖欠率已經下降至5.41%。預計2013年拖欠率可能繼續緩慢下行至2%左右。很多拖欠來自于拖欠已超過一年的原有借款人，并非遵循更嚴格貸款標準的新借款人。預計降幅最大的幾個州將是內華達州、明尼蘇達州、加州和亞利桑那州。

Buying gets less affordable

????The bust of the housing market five years ago created one of the cheapest times to buy. Across many parts of the U.S., even in some of the priciest markets including New York and Honolulu, it has become cheaper to purchase a home than rent, according to Trulia's Rent vs Buy report. Record-low interest rates on mortgages have also made buying more affordable.

????That's changing, however. In 2012, prices hit bottom. Finally! While that tells us the market is healing, it could also mean buying will be less affordable in 2013. Asking prices for homes for sale rose 3.8% in November from a year earlier -- one of the biggest gains since the housing market crashed in 2007. While rents nationwide are still rising faster than home prices, the trend has reversed in 14 of Trulia's 25 biggest rental markets including Denver, Seattle and San Francisco.

Watch for rising jobs, not rising prices

????Most of us watched home prices to gauge the health of the housing market. That was so 2012, however. Just because prices are rising doesn't necessarily mean the industry is doing any better. Next year, a better pulse of the market will be the rate of jobs growth, says Jed Kolko, chief economist with Trulia.

????Cities like Las Vegas, Miami and Phoenix have seen home prices surge, but it's uncertain how long that could last. Prices have risen, partly because they fell so much and also because many homes are still undergoing the foreclosure process. They're also cities in states with some of the highest rates of unemployment, which ties closely to how well people will be positioned to buy.

????For 2013, Kolko has spotted 10 cities where he thinks the market will be healthiest. CongratsTexas, you make up the bulk of them!

Delinquencies fall (very slowly)

????The troubled housing market was marked by record foreclosures, which is why economists closely watch the rate at which homeowners are late on their payments -- they're a precursor to foreclosures. Nationwide, the delinquency rate on mortgages peaked during the last three months of 2009 at 6.89%, after rising 12 quarters in a row from 1.49% in 2006.

????As of the latest quarter, the delinquency rate dropped to 5.41%. And for 2013, it's expected to continue dropping -- albeit, slowly to around 2%. Much of the late payments are made up of existing borrowers more than a year late on their payments, as opposed to new borrowers following stricter lending standards. Some of the biggest declines are expected in Nevada, Minnesota, California and Arizona.