美國國債上漲

????2011年，債券大師比爾?格羅斯因為預測失誤而陷入麻煩：他原本預計投資者將厭倦投資美國國債獲得的微不足道的收益，逃離這種超安全證券。今年，輪到鮑勃?杜爾押錯寶了。這位前黑石（BlackRock）策略師總是發布下一年的10項預測，因此很容易中招。但他看空美國國債是一個很大的錯誤。

????想想今年1月初，10年期美國國債的收益率為1.97%。十二個月后收益率降至1.84%，12月初甚至一度下探1.59%。有很多因素推低美國國債收益率：受驚嚇的投資者、財政懸崖和美聯儲（Fed）為刺激美國經濟發展而保持低利率的扭曲操作政策。杜爾或許能想起那句市場至理名言：不要跟美聯儲對著干。

Treasuries rise

????What got bond guru Bill Gross into trouble last year was the prediction that investors would tire of puny Treasury yields and flee the ultra-safe securities. This year it was Bob Doll's turn to make the losing bet. The former BlackRock strategist always publishes his list of 10 predictions for the next year, so it's easy to pick on him. But his bet against Treasuries represents a notable mistake.

????Consider that in the beginning of January, the 10-year Treasury yielded 1.97%. Twelve months later the rate has fallen to 1.84% after dipping as low as 1.59% earlier in December. There was plenty to keep rates driving lower: spooked investors, the fiscal cliff, and the Fed's Operation Twist policy that is supposed to stoke the economy with low rates. Doll might recall a market truism: you can't fight the Fed.