????請忘掉臺式機(jī)。對開發(fā)者來說，移動設(shè)備才應(yīng)該是重點。KPCB投資公司（Kleiner Perkins Caufield&Byers）的風(fēng)險投資家瑪麗?米克爾于上周發(fā)布了一份互聯(lián)網(wǎng)發(fā)展趨勢年度報告，幾乎通篇都在表達(dá)這個觀點。兩年前，全球智能手機(jī)和平板電腦的出貨量就超過了個人電腦。米克爾預(yù)測，到明年第二季度，全球平板電腦和智能手機(jī)的用戶數(shù)將全面超過個人電腦用戶數(shù)?，F(xiàn)成的例子是：這個圣誕節(jié)孩子們幾乎有一半人都想要一臺iPad，其中36%的人喜歡iPad mini。

????不過，在移動領(lǐng)域淘金并沒人敢打包票一定能成。致富路上會碰上如下四個攔路虎：

????廣告。對移動領(lǐng)域的開發(fā)者來說最大的挑戰(zhàn)是什么？這就是如何為其工作恰當(dāng)?shù)囟▋r。近期，著名風(fēng)投機(jī)構(gòu)合廣投資（Union Square Venture）的掌門人弗雷德·威爾遜重申他支持含有尊享升級的免費(fèi)服務(wù)。從理論上說，這么做能使應(yīng)用的潛在曝光量最大化，使得廣告可能成為移動應(yīng)用的一個收入來源。但就算是像Facebook這樣免費(fèi)提供主要應(yīng)用的大公司，要想在不影響用戶體驗的前提下在三四英寸的小屏幕上呈現(xiàn)相關(guān)廣告，也不是一件容易的事情。

????滲透率。盡管從總體上說移動設(shè)備會逐步取代臺式機(jī)，但這一天真正到來還有待時日。全球使用手機(jī)的50億人中，只有10億人用的是智能手機(jī)。其他人用的都是功能更簡單的機(jī)型。在中國和美國這樣的國家，智能手機(jī)銷售增長率有望每年達(dá)到50%的高位，但在許多第三世界國家，由于成本的限制，智能手機(jī)不會這么暢銷。

????平臺分化。對于Facebook或eBay這樣的大公司來說，同時對多種移動設(shè)備投資在財務(wù)上顯然問題不大。但眾多初創(chuàng)型公司的啟動資金往往只有幾十萬美元——只有極少數(shù)能有上百萬美元，經(jīng)濟(jì)實力很有限。這種情況往往意味著，他們一開始就必須謹(jǐn)慎選擇支持哪種平臺。不過就算在這些平臺上，開發(fā)也可能成為問題，尤其是當(dāng)設(shè)備變得越來越多種多樣以后。比如一個應(yīng)用可能在谷歌（Google）的安卓（Android）上運(yùn)行很流暢，但換個平臺卻可能完全跑不起來。

????發(fā)現(xiàn)應(yīng)用。蘋果iPhone推出初期，成功似乎來得相對容易?；ㄉ蠋字芑驇讉€月開發(fā)一個有趣或有用的應(yīng)用讓用戶“嘗鮮”，這個應(yīng)用就有可能成為下一個“憤怒的小鳥”。但現(xiàn)在，難度就大多了。iOS和安卓平臺上的應(yīng)用均已多達(dá)約700,000個（連Windows系統(tǒng)的手機(jī)都號稱有120,000個應(yīng)用了）。就算蘋果公司和谷歌公司在自己的虛擬商店里盡了最大努力來推廣一些應(yīng)用，我們交流過的一些初創(chuàng)公司的開發(fā)者還是表示，現(xiàn)在比以往任何時候都更難引人們的注意。

????譯者：清遠(yuǎn)

????Forget the desktop. If you're a developer, mobile should likely be your focus. Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers venture capitalist Mary Meeker all-but-said as much when she presented her annual Internet Trends?report?last week. Though global smartphone and tablet shipments surpassed PC shipments two years ago, Meeker predicted the tablet and smartphone global user base to pass PCs during the second quarter of next year. Case in point: nearly half of all kids want an iPad this Christmas, with 36% of them preferring an iPad Mini.

????Still, striking it rich on mobile is hardly a sure bet. Here are four stumbling blocks standing in the way:

????Advertising.?The biggest challenge for mobile developers? Properly monetizing their work. Union Square Ventures principal Fred Wilson?recently reiterated?his support for a free tier with a premium upgrade. In theory, doing so maximizes an app's potential exposure. That leaves advertising as one possible revenue stream. But even companies like Facebook (FB), which offers main app for free, have publicly grappled with how to present relevant ads on screens as small as three or four inches without taking away with the user experience.

????Penetration.?Although overall mobile will eclipse the desktop, there's still a long way to go. Of the 5 billion mobile users around the world, just 1 billion of them are using smartphones. The rest are using simpler feature phones. In countries like China and the U.S., smartphone growth is expected to grow rapidly 50% year-over-year, but smartphones remain a tougher sell in many third-world countries where the cost can be prohibitive.

????Fragmentation.?For larger companies like Facebook or eBay (EBAY), investing in mobile across myriad devices is obviously less of an issue financially, but for many startups, which often debut with hundreds of thousands -- and in rarer cases, millions -- of dollars in initial funding, resources remain limited. This often means being selective about which platforms to support initially. But within those platforms, development can be a problem, particularly as devices become even more diverse. An app may run smoothly on one Google (GOOG) Android device for example, but not work at all on another.

????App discovery.?In the early days of Apple's (AAPL) iPhone, success seemed relatively easy. Spend a few weeks or months coding a fun or useful app for users to "snack" on, and that app could be the next "Angry Birds." Now, it's harder. Much harder. Both iOS and Android apps number around 700,000 each. (Heck, even Windows Phone claims 120,000.) Even with Apple and Google's best efforts to highlight apps in their virtual storefronts, some start-up developers we've spoken to admit it's more challenging than ever to get noticed.