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美國(guó)建筑業(yè)怪現(xiàn)象

美國(guó)建筑業(yè)怪現(xiàn)象

Nin-Hai Tseng 2012-12-12
美國(guó)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)呈現(xiàn)反彈的可喜跡象,房屋開(kāi)工量有所增加。然而,政府報(bào)告顯示,居民住宅建筑類(lèi)崗位卻在日益減少。到底是怎么回事?

????經(jīng)過(guò)五年低迷期后,美國(guó)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)終于渡過(guò)難關(guān):大部分地區(qū)的住房?jī)r(jià)格出現(xiàn)上漲。建筑商建造的房屋數(shù)量也呈上漲趨勢(shì),從托爾兄弟公司(Toll Brothers)到萊納房屋公司(Lennar),部分大公司的利潤(rùn)猛增。

????然而,從美國(guó)政府的就業(yè)報(bào)告中,卻看不出房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)好轉(zhuǎn)的跡象。美國(guó)勞工統(tǒng)計(jì)局(Bureau of Labor Statistics)公布11月份的月度就業(yè)報(bào)告后,杰德·科爾克(來(lái)自住宅物業(yè)信息服務(wù)網(wǎng)站Trulia)在上周五的一份報(bào)告中提出了這一觀點(diǎn)。

????隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)好轉(zhuǎn),就業(yè)機(jī)會(huì)增加,然而,建筑業(yè)的就業(yè)形勢(shì)似乎并未出現(xiàn)好轉(zhuǎn)跡象。因此,人們對(duì)政府的統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)更加疑惑:如果建筑商建造了更多房屋,為何我們卻沒(méi)有看到建筑工作崗位的增加呢?

????美國(guó)商務(wù)部(the U.S. Commerce Department)11月份報(bào)告稱(chēng),10月份,美國(guó)房屋開(kāi)工率提高了3.6%,全年開(kāi)工894,000戶(hù),為五年來(lái)的最高水平,比去年提高了41.9%。上周的數(shù)據(jù)顯示,截至10月31日,美國(guó)最大的豪華房屋建筑商托爾兄弟公布,季度收入增長(zhǎng)了48%。托爾兄弟投資者關(guān)系高級(jí)副總裁弗萊德·庫(kù)珀稱(chēng),公司2012年建造的房屋數(shù)量比去年增加了26%。公司預(yù)計(jì),2013年建造的房屋數(shù)量將增加34%,多出約4,400套。

????然而,就業(yè)統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)并未反映出建筑數(shù)量的增加。科爾克在報(bào)告中稱(chēng),過(guò)去三個(gè)月,建筑類(lèi)崗位總體同比減少了0.4%(年度比率),而美國(guó)總體就業(yè)卻增長(zhǎng)了1.3%。尤其值得注意的是,居民住宅建筑類(lèi)工作年簽約率僅為7%。

????人們通常認(rèn)為,一旦房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)有所好轉(zhuǎn),經(jīng)濟(jì)將會(huì)大規(guī)模復(fù)蘇:畢竟,據(jù)行業(yè)組織美國(guó)全國(guó)住房建筑商協(xié)會(huì)(National Association of Home Builders)估算,每建造一套住房可產(chǎn)生三個(gè)全職工作,新增90,000美元的稅收收入。

????美國(guó)勞工部的數(shù)據(jù)顯示,自2009年6月“大衰退”結(jié)束時(shí)起,住宅建筑類(lèi)工作崗位從633,000個(gè)減少到11月的552,800個(gè),減少了14.5%。同一時(shí)期,失業(yè)率從9.5%減少到7.7%。失業(yè)率減少,一方面反映了經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢(shì)的好轉(zhuǎn),另一方面,也是因?yàn)楦喙と藢?duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)沒(méi)有信心,進(jìn)而放棄求職。

????問(wèn)題是,建筑行業(yè)的情況到底怎么樣?

????After a 5-year slump, the U.S. housing market has turned the corner: Home prices are rising in many parts of the country. And builders are building more homes, as some of the biggest from Toll Brothers to Lennar see profits soar.

????But you wouldn't know it by looking at the government's report on jobs. That's a point economist Jed Kolko of Trulia, a residential-property listings website, raised in a report last Friday when the Bureau of Labor Statistics released its monthly report for November.

????Even though the economy has steadily added jobs, it doesn't seem to have caught on in the construction industry. This adds to the many confusions over the government's statistics: If builders are building more homes, why aren't we seeing more construction jobs?

????In October, housing starts rose 3.6% to an annual pace of 894,000 – the best rate in more than five years and 41.9% higher than a year earlier, the U.S. Commerce Department reported in November. And last week, Toll Brothers (TOL), the largest U.S. luxury homebuilder, reported that revenues jumped 48% during the quarter ending on Oct. 31. Fred Cooper, senior vice president of investor relations at Toll Brothers, says the company built 26% more homes in 2012 compared with the previous year. And in 2013, it expects to build up to 34% or 4,400 more units.

????The employment statistics haven't reflected more building, however. During the past three months, construction jobs overall decreased by an annual rate of 0.4%, while employment overall grew by 1.3%, Kolko says in a report. And jobs, specifically in residential-building construction, contracted at an annualized rate of 7%.

????It's often thought that once the housing market turned around, the economy would see it in a big way: After all, each home built generates three full-time jobs and $90,000 in new tax revenue, the National Association of Home Builders, a trade group, estimates.

????Since the end of the Great Recession in June 2009, jobs in homebuilding dropped 14.5% from 633,000 to 552,800 in November, according to data from the U.S. Labor Department. During the same period, the unemployment rate declined from 9.5% to 7.7%. Part of the drop reflects an improving economy, but it also comes as more workers feeling uncertain about the economy give up searching for work.

????The question is where does the construction industry fit into this picture?

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