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埃及危機蘊藏希望

埃及危機蘊藏希望

Mohamed El-Erian 2012-11-29
當前埃及的政治經濟前景嚴峻,但還不到絕望的時候。實際上,如果處理得當,這次最新爭端或許反而能幫助埃及及時而富有建設性地修正前進的道路,帶來持久的正面效應。

????? 第三,民眾賦權可能強化:從提高公民參與度到政治空想,絕不要低估最終感受到當家做主、可以改變國家命運的民眾所爆發出來的潛力。

????? 第四,埃及經濟潛力巨大:如果政局穩定,短期能獲得金融援助,很多領域的生產力將得到釋放。

????? 最后,埃及的朋友和盟友們都希望看到這個國家的轉型取得成功,并愿意為此做出貢獻:很多人都熱切地期待埃及國內能持續地推動實現革命目標,取得真正的經濟和社會進步,他們愿意為此盡一份力。

????埃及當前的政治和經濟前景正面臨挑戰,原因可以理解;最新的國內政治爭端加深了與革命核心相關的焦慮。

????但要說對這個國家不報任何希望,現在還為時尚早。實際上,如果處理得當,這次最新爭端(以及它在國內引發的反應)或許能幫助埃及及時而富有建設性地修正前進的道路,帶來持久的效應。

????穆罕默德?埃爾-埃利安是太平洋投資管理公司(PIMCO)的首席執行官兼聯席首席投資官。

????譯者:楊智

????? Third, the potential upside of popular empowerment: From greater civic engagement to visionary aspirations, never underestimate the upside associated with a population that finally feels it owns the country and can influence its destiny.

????? Fourth, the economy's considerable potential: With some sustained political stability and short-term financial assistance, many productive sectors can be unleashed in a meaningful manner.

????? Finally, Egypt's friends and allies are interested in its success and they're ready to contribute: many are keen to align themselves behind a sustained domestic effort to attain the revolution's objectives of real and inclusive economic and social progress.

????Egypt's immediate political and economic future is challenging, and for understandable reasons; and the latest internal political controversy adds to the anxiety associated with a tricky revolutionary pivot.

????Yet it is too early to give up on the country. Indeed, if properly handled, even this latest controversy – and the internal responses it has already triggered – could end up helping Egypt course correct in a constructive, timely and durable fashion.

????Mohamed El-Erian is the CEO and co-chief investment officer of PIMCO.

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