????蹣跚掙扎的埃及經濟最不愿看到的就是國內政治危機：黨派領袖針鋒相對，司法體系與政府勢不兩立，街頭抗議一點就著。但自11月22日埃及總統穆爾西頒布新憲法聲明、賦予總統更多權力以來，埃及恰恰是走上了這樣一條路。

????結果是在埃及國內外引發了更深的憂慮，有些人甚至開始懷疑這個國家還能不能完成這兩年來從獨裁專制到民主和尊重人權的轉型。近日，穆爾西總統在以色列和巴勒斯坦官員之間斡旋、最終促成加沙停火所引發的全球一片推崇之聲，也已讓位于對埃及國內權力斗爭的擔憂。

????這些擔憂可以理解。它們本質上與當前埃及復雜微妙的局勢相關：埃及正在進行歷史性的革命轉型。這兩年埃及的革命轉型之路一波三折，新憲法聲明引發的這場政治危機就好比是一朵新飄來的烏云，但即便是這朵烏云，仍然有可能會透出一線光明。

????關于這場革命的總結陳詞早已廣為人知。埃及草根革命以勇敢的青年運動為先鋒，以相對和平的方式迅速推翻了穆巴拉克的統治。此后，這個國家經歷了從革命到建設的艱難轉型：從廢除過去根深蒂固的殘余，到建立起一個民眾追求的美好未來。

????埃及缺乏組織和領導人來推動迅速有序地轉變。

????除了武裝力量，幾乎所有政府組織（和幾家私營組織）多年來都被用于為少數利益服務。將這些組織重新定位，為多數人的利益服務，同時得到整個埃及社會的接納，這些需要時間，還要克服種種困難。

????2011年埃及革命爆發之初，頗被看好的埃及軍方未能贏得廣泛的信任和支持。

????埃及軍方明智地避開了內戰陷阱；隨后在利比亞爆發的內戰以及目前仍在繼續的敘利亞內戰都造成了巨大的人員傷亡。但埃及軍方在處理穆巴拉克被推翻后的復雜微妙局面時多有失誤。

????埃及也缺乏像曼德拉那樣德高望重的領導人，迅速帶領這個國家“寬恕過去，但始終銘記”。

????突然爆發的草根革命缺乏有組織能力的革命者。而那些渴望擔當這一角色的人們在最初的政治真空期未能給予自己適當的定位。

????The very last thing a struggling Egyptian economy needed is a domestic political crisis that divides its leading personalities, pits the judicial branch against the executive, and ignites street protests. Yet this is exactly where the country finds itself following Thursday's decree that grants more power to the president.

????The result is greater anxiety, both within and outside Egypt – so much so that more people seem to be giving up on the country's ability to complete its bumpy multi-year transition from dictatorship to greater democracy and respect for human rights. Moreover, in the short term, widespread global admiration for President Morsi's crucial role in brokering a ceasefire in Gaza between Israeli and Palestinian officials has given way to concern about an internal grab for power.

????These concerns are understandable. They are intrinsically related to the delicate conditions under which Egypt is navigating its historic revolutionary transition. But even this new cloud now hanging over the country's already-difficult multi-year journey could end up having a silver lining.

????The conventional summary narrative is well known by now. Egypt's grassroots revolution, led by courageous youth movements, overthrew President Mubarak in a quick and relatively peaceful manner. Thereafter, the country has had a challenging time navigating the trickiest revolutionary pivot of all: from dismantling the past and its deeply-entrenched remnants, to building a better future that commands broad-based popular buy-in.

????Egypt has lacked both the institutions and the leaders for a rapid and orderly transition.

????Apart from the armed forces, virtually all public institutions (and several private ones) were coopted over many years to serve narrow interests. Re-orienting them to enable and support the greater good, and to do so with acceptance across Egyptian society, is inherently challenging and time consuming.

????The one institution that commanded broad admiration at the outset of revolution in 2011 – Egypt's armed forces – failed to build on its widespread credibility and support.

????The armed forces brilliantly avoided the tragic trap of fueling a civil war, as subsequently happened in Libya and is now occurring in Syria with horrid human casualties. But they stumbled when it came to the delicate task of handling well the immediate and complicated aftermath of Mubarak's overthrow.

????Egypt was also short of a Mandela type leader who could credibly and rapidly move the nation forward by "forgiving but not forgetting the past."

????The sudden grassroots revolution lacked well-recognized revolutionaries. And those who aspired to this role tripped in positioning themselves properly during the initial political vacuum.