????根據巴克萊資本（Barclays Capital）能源分析師研究結果，自2005年到2011年，隨著新發現油氣田替換現有生產能力，主要石油公司的平均儲備壽命（以現有開采速度，公司原油和天然氣儲備的可開采年限）維持在12年。道達爾（Total）這類公司靠著并購來延長儲備壽命，埃克森美孚和殼牌這樣的大公司憑借可持續發展戰略取得了更長足發展。當然，這并不是說，埃克森美孚公司不會收購其他公司。幾年前，埃克森美孚公司以400億美元價格收購了天然氣公司XTO。但是，大公司并不靠收購來大幅延長自己的儲備壽命。

????不容否認的是，英國石油擁有眾多讓其他石油巨頭垂涎的寶貴資產。盡管深水地平線事故讓墨西哥灣數月漂油，埃克森美孚至今仍然覬覦著英國石油在墨西哥灣的資產。將這樣一個業務遍及全球、涵蓋石油價值鏈各個環節的公司整個吞掉，問題就自然來了。將英國石油所有業務整合起來本已令人頭疼。尤其是現在，公司還能不斷更新能源儲備，保持盈利。在這種情況下，這樣做多少有些得不償失。

????石油公司，尤其是埃克森美孚，行事謹慎。除非確定賺到真金白銀，它們不會輕易出手。如果埃克森美孚要收購英國石油，它動用資本的平均回報率將高達35%，讓私募基金望塵莫及。所以交易如果真的能實現，英國石油的股價必須大幅下跌。但這一切又不是英國石油管理層愿意接受的。盡管英國石油股價與同類公司相比跌幅較大，相比埃克森美孚股票11.1的市盈率，英國石油市盈率僅為7.1，但總有這樣或那樣的因素阻礙并購。

????盡管英國石油已經成功地與政府和個人就墨西哥灣漏油達成和解，但還遠遠沒有擺脫麻煩。英國石油仍然需要解決《潔凈水法案》（Clean Water Act）和《油污染法案》（Oil Pollution Act）“嚴重失職”指控。英國石油可能再為此支付少則50億美元、多則300億美元的費用。開庭時間定在明年2月，希望英國石油能在此之前達成和解，這樣并購才可能真正啟動。

????即便從經濟角度英國石油的并購案可行，目前看來，圣誕、新年期間也不會有任何進展。資產市值超過1,300億美元但背負著數十億美元的未知債務，目前的英國石油公司仍然是一團糟，沒有哪家石油公司愿意出手。

????譯者：郭延航

????As for reserves, from 2005 to 2011, the average reserve life (the years required to deplete a company's proven oil and gas reserves at current production rates) of the majors have remained relatively stable at 12 years, with net additions from new discoveries replacing current production, according to energy analysts at Barclays Capital. Some companies have depended on acquisitions to extend their reserve life, namely Total, but the big guys like ExxonMobil and Shell have been more successful in growing organically. That's not to say ExxonMobil (XOM) doesn't do deals -- it acquired natural gas producer XTO for $40 billion a couple years back -- but it doesn't depend on, nor does it actively seek out acquisitions to pump up its reserve life by a significant amount.

????To be sure, BP (BP) does have a lot of valuable assets that the majors would love to get their hands on. ExxonMobil still covets BP's Gulf of Mexico assets, for example, even after the Deepwater Horizon disaster turned the Gulf into one big oil slick for a few months. The issue comes when you start talking about absorbing all of BP, which still has operations up and down the oil value chain from the bottom tip of Africa to the top of the Artic. Combining all of those operations just seems like a headache that isn't worth the trouble, especially when companies can still replace their reserves profitably.

????Oil companies, especially ExxonMobil, are extremely conservative and aren't prone to jump into a deal unless they know they can make serious money. In the case of ExxonMobil, that is somewhere around a 35% return on average capital employed – making private equity look like underachievers.? That would mean that BP would need to be acquired at a major discount, something that BP management isn't prepared to do. While it is true that BP is trading at a major discount to it peers, with a price-to-earnings multiple of 7.1x versus 11.1x for ExxonMobil, it has always been a laggard for one reason or another.

????And while BP has successfully negotiated settlements with the government and private individuals in connection with the Gulf oil spill, it?isn't out of the woods just yet. BP still needs to settle "grossly negligent" charges brought under the Clean Water Act and the Oil Pollution Act. That could cost the company as little as $5 billion to as much as $30 billion or more. A trial is set for February, so the hope is that BP settles before then so it can truly move on.

????So even if it makes economic sense to merge, don't expect a big oil deal to spoil your holidays. With a $130 billion market cap, and billions of dollars in unknown liabilities, BP remains one big toxic mess, which no oil company would want to acquire.