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大商機(jī):美國成世界頭號產(chǎn)油國之后

大商機(jī):美國成世界頭號產(chǎn)油國之后

Neil Suslak 2012-11-23
有機(jī)構(gòu)預(yù)測美國將在2020年成為世界頭號產(chǎn)油國,全球能源格局將出現(xiàn)重大變化。這種巨變將會(huì)帶來大量的投資機(jī)會(huì)。

????這個(gè)領(lǐng)域的投資毫無減退之勢。IHS Herold的數(shù)據(jù)顯示,從2011年1月到2012年4月,上游石油和天然氣公司參與了180億美元的私募股權(quán)交易,高于2006-2010年的40億美元。投資額的增長在一定程度上反映了科技進(jìn)步,為進(jìn)一步開發(fā)這些資源提供了可能。

????雖然在開采生產(chǎn)領(lǐng)域已經(jīng)取得了難以數(shù)計(jì)的科技進(jìn)步,但很多這類油氣資源的開發(fā)成本依然高昂。它意味著,如果要維持產(chǎn)量增長,技術(shù)必須進(jìn)一步發(fā)展。如果商品價(jià)格依然受到抑制,這一點(diǎn)就顯得更加重要。今年西得克薩斯中質(zhì)油(WTI)價(jià)格已下跌超過15%。

????如果沒有新的技術(shù)來降低勘探開采成本,開采這些新資源的經(jīng)濟(jì)可行性就會(huì)下降。我們已經(jīng)在頁巖氣領(lǐng)域看到了這樣的情況:一部分是由于價(jià)格持續(xù)低迷,生產(chǎn)商已經(jīng)日益從干氣轉(zhuǎn)向濕氣。與此同時(shí),低廉的天然氣價(jià)格也推動(dòng)了乙烷加工廠的興建,以供應(yīng)塑料和其他下游化工市場。

能效問題越來越受關(guān)注

????我們在發(fā)電和運(yùn)輸領(lǐng)域?qū)剂系某掷m(xù)依賴無疑將在能效和減排技術(shù)領(lǐng)域創(chuàng)造出巨大的商機(jī)。能效提升將變得更為重要。因?yàn)椋绻覀兝^續(xù)消耗化石燃料,向可再生能源轉(zhuǎn)換的進(jìn)程可能就會(huì)放緩,特別是在能源發(fā)電領(lǐng)域。因?yàn)榱畠r(jià)的天然氣進(jìn)一步拉升了它相對于可再生能源發(fā)電的成本差異。

????雖然國際能源署強(qiáng)調(diào)美國已經(jīng)減少了石油進(jìn)口,但該機(jī)構(gòu)的《2012年能源展望》報(bào)告同時(shí)指出,造成這種情況一部分原因可能是因?yàn)槊绹拖M(fèi)量的減少。相比2006年,美國的石油消費(fèi)量已經(jīng)下降了8%。石油消費(fèi)量的下降相當(dāng)一部分是因?yàn)樾录夹g(shù)降低了交通運(yùn)輸行業(yè)的車輛耗油量。大多數(shù)車輛的耗油量都低于五年前,新技術(shù)提高了車輛的每加侖行駛里程,由此也降低了排放。

????因此,盡管清潔技術(shù)融資(取決于如何定義清潔技術(shù))同比似乎略有下降,但能源技術(shù)投資依然強(qiáng)勁。很多具有顛覆性潛能的公司正在尋求風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資,但相比之下,大部分的資金卻來源于美國、歐洲、中東和亞洲其他地區(qū)的大型能源公司。如今隨著行業(yè)格局加快變化,風(fēng)投和大型能源公司興趣更加濃厚,希望合作投資新興公司,尋找解決方案。這種情況甚至對于跨國公司可能也是巨大的機(jī)遇。

????尼爾·蘇斯拉克是Braemar Energy Ventures的聯(lián)合創(chuàng)始人兼執(zhí)行合伙人,他在以能源為主的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資領(lǐng)域擁有超過20年的經(jīng)驗(yàn)。Braemar Energy Ventures重點(diǎn)投資能源科技領(lǐng)域尚處于吸引風(fēng)投和擴(kuò)張階段的公司,以及與可再生能源和傳統(tǒng)能源領(lǐng)域的杰出公司和管理團(tuán)隊(duì)合作。 更多信息,請登錄www.braemarenergy.com。

????譯者:早稻米

????Investment in the space is showing no sign of abatement. From January 2011 to April 2012, upstream oil and gas companies participated in $18 billion in private equity deals – that's up from $4 billion from 2006 through 2010, according to?IHS Herold. Part of this increase in value reflects the growth of technology, allowing for further development of such resources.

????Although numerous technology advancements have already been made in exploration and production (E&P), many of these hydrocarbon resources remain costly to develop -- meaning that further advancements must be achieved in order to sustain production growth. This is particularly important if commodity prices remain suppressed, with WTI prices down over 15% this year.

????Without new technologies to reduce E&P costs, the production of these new resources will become less economically viable. We are already witnessing this phenomenon with shale gas as producers increasingly shift from dry gas to liquids plays in response, in part, to the continued low prices. At the same time, these lower prices have enabled a significant build-out in ethane-based processing plants for the plastics and other downstream chemicals markets.

Increased focus on energy efficiency

????Our continued reliance on fossil fuels for power and transportation will undoubtedly create opportunities in the fields of energy efficiency and emissions mitigation technology. Efficiency advancements will become even more important as we consume fossil fuels and perhaps observe a slower transition to renewables, particularly on the power side as cheaper natural gas raises the price differential versus most forms of renewable power.

????Although the IEA highlights the fact that the U.S. has decreased its petroleum imports, part of this drop can be attributed to a decline in U.S. consumption, which is down 8% since 2006, according to the?IEA's?Energy Outlook 2012.?In particular, a significant portion of the drop in consumption has been enabled by new technologies reducing vehicle fuel consumption in the transportation sector. Most vehicles burn less fuel than they did five years ago as new technologies allow cars to achieve more mileage per gallon and, as a result, cut their emissions as well.

????So while cleantech funding (depending on how you define it) looks to be down slightly year-on-year, investment in energy technology remains robust. Although many potentially disruptive companies are sourcing venture capital, the lion's share of investment is being carried out by large energy companies from the U.S., Europe, the Middle East and other parts of Asia. Today, there is much greater interest among VCs and large energy companies to act collaboratively in investing together in emerging companies as the industry landscape shifts ever more quickly and to identify solutions to what are enormous opportunities even for a multi-national.

????Neil Suslak, Co-Founder and Managing Partner of Braemar Energy Ventures, has more than 20 years of experience in the venture capital and investment banking industries, largely in the energy space. Braemar Energy Ventures focuses on investing primarily in venture- and expansion-stage companies in the energy technology sector and partners with exceptional companies and management teams, in both alternative and traditional energy markets. Additional information is available at?www.braemarenergy.com.

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