????自從11月6日奧巴馬在美國總統(tǒng)大選中擊敗米特·羅姆尼以來，金融市場就開始出現(xiàn)下挫。11月7、8日，道瓊斯指數(shù)下跌了3%，9日看來還會繼續(xù)走低。是的，美國歷史上每當現(xiàn)任總統(tǒng)贏得連任時，金融市場總是會走低，但這次下跌還是讓很多華爾街人士感到不安。不是疲弱的公司業(yè)績，不是襲擊美國東海岸的反常颶風，也不是歐洲問題重現(xiàn)——不，這次下跌完全是因為正在逼近的財政懸崖。或者，我們預計正在逼近的財政懸崖。

????沒錯，財政懸崖問題和美國不斷膨脹的國家債務(wù)一樣真真切切——理論上糟糕，但還沒有糟糕到能讓華盛頓心甘情愿承受短期的經(jīng)濟痛楚。畢竟，兩年后美國眾議院就將重新選舉，哪一方都不愿在展開大選競選時，還要奮力捍衛(wèi)為什么政府制定了抑制經(jīng)濟增長的縮支加稅政策。這些政策的目的是解決一些債務(wù)負擔問題，但目前債務(wù)融資并無沒有問題，投資者仍然愿意以接近零利率的收益率提供融資。

????上周四，無黨派的美國國會預算辦公室（Congressional Budget Office，以下簡稱CBO）公布了最新的美國經(jīng)濟短期和長期預測。鑒于財政懸崖引發(fā)的所有爭議，CBO列出了兩種對立的經(jīng)濟觀點：一是美國政府掉落財政懸崖，根據(jù)現(xiàn)行法律，必須得這樣；二是美國政府轉(zhuǎn)向，在不負責任的財政道路上越走越遠。

????如果美國政府陷入黨派僵局，所有布什時期的減稅政策將于1月2日到期，包括資本所得稅和股息稅(這也是為何本周股市如此疲弱的原因之一)。由于美國國會“超級委員會”沒能按去年夏天通過的《預算控制法案》（Budget Control Act）要求、列出未來十年至少1萬億美元的開支縮減，將會自動削減6,000億美元的必需和可選支出，以及6,000億美元的國防相關(guān)支出（這被稱為“扣押”)。加稅和減支共同作用，將構(gòu)成可怕的財政懸崖。

????如果掉下財政懸崖，美國經(jīng)濟將會怎樣表現(xiàn)？簡言之，CBO預計短期內(nèi)將帶來較大的痛苦，而長期效益也相對有限。聯(lián)邦稅收增加、聯(lián)邦支出減少，將把預算赤字(政府收支差額）從去年的1.1萬億美元降至減少到2013財年的6,410億美元，削減約5,000億美元。自從1969年以后，美國這樣的預算赤字削減還從來沒有出現(xiàn)過這么大的幅度(占GDP比例）。那一年，保守的理查德·尼克松將大手大腳的林登·約翰遜從白宮中趕了出去。

????The markets have taken a beating since President Obama trounced Mitt Romney in Tuesday's election. The Dow is down 3% in the last two trading sessions and looks to be headed further south on Friday. While it is true that the markets historically take a dive after an incumbent president wins reelection, this latest drop has many on Wall Street on edge. Forget the weak corporate earnings, the freak hurricane that hit the East Coast and renewed troubles in Europe – no, this is all because of one thing: the looming fiscal cliff. Or that is what we are to believe.

????Indeed, the fiscal cliff is about as real of a problem as the nation's burgeoning national debt – it's theoretically bad, but it isn't bad enough for Washington to risk making the short term any more economically unpleasant than it has to be. After all, there will be elections for the House in just two short years, so neither side wants to go into that election cycle trying to defend why the government instituted growth killing spending cuts while allowing taxes to shoot up to address some arbitrary debt load that investors continue to fund for next to nothing.

????Thursday, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office?released?its latest short and long-term economic forecasts for the country. Given all the hubbub over the fiscal cliff, the government bean counters so kindly presented two contrasting views of the economy – one in which the government drives off the fiscal cliff, which it must under current law, and one in which the government turns and just continues to drive on the edge of fiscal irresponsibility.

????If the government gets caught up in partisan gridlock, all the Bush era tax cuts end on January 2nd?– including those on capital gains and dividends (hence why the equity markets are in such a tizzy this week). Since the Congressional "super committee" failed to lay out at least $1 trillion in spending cuts over ten years as required under the Budget Control Act passed last summer, there will automatically be $600 billion in cuts to discretionary and mandatory spending and another $600 billion in defense-related spending (this is called the "sequester"). Together, the increase in taxes and the decrease in spending is what make up the dreaded fiscal cliff.

????So how does the U.S. economy fare down the rabbit hole? In a nutshell, the CBO projects that it would produce some major short-term pain with relatively little long-term benefits. The increase in federal taxes and the reductions in federal spending would cut the budget deficit (the difference between how much revenue the government takes in how much it spends) from $1.1 trillion last year to $641 billion in fiscal 2013, roughly a $500 billion cut. That represents a reduction in the budget deficit (as a percentage share of GDP) not seen since 1969 when the conservative Richard Nixon booted the free-spending Lyndon Johnson out of the White House.