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Facebook翻身的兩個原因

Facebook翻身的兩個原因

Miguel Helft 2012-10-26
移動設備的流行和廣告收入的增長,正將Facebook從泥潭中拯救出來。目前,Facebook已經成為最大的移動平臺之一,廣告收入比去年同期增長了36%。公司第三季度的收入也在這兩個積極因素的刺激下比去年同期增長了32%。

????Facebook是不是選擇了一個最壞的時間上市?當然,就這個問題,首次公開募股的買方和賣方會給出不同的回答。不過毫無疑問的是,Facebook在其商業前景最不明了的情況下倉促選擇了上市。

????科技領域的投資者大多認為Facebook的行情將會一路看漲。不過今年春天,Facebook的增長速度大幅下降。Facebook在5月18日上市之前的三個季度,收入的年增長率從超過100%降至不足40%。移動廣告業務的收入已經消失殆盡。

????不過如今,Facebook似乎到了一個轉折點。它的收入增長率雖然無法回到以前的高度——可能永遠也回不到了——但是已經止住了之前的頹勢。而移動廣告業務的收入從一無所有重新回升到總收入的14%。在某些分析師看來,這簡直是“輝煌的壯舉”。

????的確,種種跡象表明Facebook已經開始重新煥發活力。這家公司本周二發布的財報顯示,第三季度Facebook的收入為12.6億美元,比去年同期增長了32%,增長率與上一季度持平。更令人振奮的是,Facebook的廣告業務收入比去年同期增長了36%,如果刨除外幣疲軟造成的影響,廣告收入同比將達到43%。表現確實不錯。因此在盤后交易中,Facebook的股票上漲了13%。

????是什么造成了這些增長呢?顯然,Facebook首次公開募股的慘敗讓他們幡然醒悟。扎克伯格曾自豪地向潛在的投資者聲明,他們將用心做好產品,其后才會考慮收入多少,不過現在他改變了論調。他加班加點地工作,力圖集結人馬,加速貨幣化進程。經過一次顯著的變革后,關注曾被忽視的廣告體驗已經變成了每個產品集團的主要職責。Facebook開發了全新的廣告產品,推出了電子商務服務Facebook Gifts,讓用戶能夠在Facebook平臺上購買、并與好友們互送禮物。

????“很顯然,Facebook的管理層把戰略重點放在了股市上,”投資公司史蒂弗?尼古拉斯(StifelNicolaus)的分析師喬丹?羅翰說。“他們過去那些理想主義的觀念現在都開始發生了改變。”

????這些改變開始帶來更好的業績。周二在與分析師的電話會議中,扎克伯格試圖把握住這些增長所帶來的機遇,他勸說投資者打消對投資移動業務的恐懼。他把“移動產品帶來的機遇”稱作Facebook的業務中“遭人誤解最深的領域”之一。

????關于移動產品,扎克伯格說:“我們可以由此接觸到更廣泛的用戶群體,用戶們也可以更方便、更頻繁地訪問我們的網頁。這種情況下,我認為我們的收入會更多。”他的頭號助手、首席運營官謝莉?桑德伯格強調說:“我們在不到八個月的時間內已經一躍成為最大的移動廣告平臺之一。”

????移動廣告業務的收入以每年6億美元的速度增長。羅翰說:“Facebook在移動廣告業務上的收入令人印象深刻。”

????當然,Facebook目前還沒有脫離困境。即便該公司的股票在周二反彈,比起38美元的發行價,Facebook的股價依然下跌了40%。他們在11月和12月遭遇的壓力還會更大,因為屆時股票解禁,公司員工和早期的股東就可以拋售股票。一些分析師擔心,Facebook侵略性地推行貨幣化會嚇跑一批用戶。還有許多廣告商仍然質疑Facebook的廣告效果。而Facebook最大的單項收入來源、社交游戲公司Zynga最近似乎表現不佳,盡管扎克伯格表示其他游戲公司的表現依然可圈可點。

????首次公開募股僅僅過去五個月,Facebook已經走過了一段漫長的道路。它的不敗光環迅速褪去,扎克伯格和他的公司被迫從頭開始。如今,Facebook正在認真考慮利用已取得重大成功的服務優勢,開辟與之相配套的業務。這個想法很好。不過Facebook想要在華爾街和硅谷重放光彩,還需要長期穩步的提高和完善。

????譯者:嚴匡正

????Did Facebook go public at the worst possible time? Buyers and sellers in the IPO will answer that question differently, of course. But there's little doubt that Facebook went public when uncertainty about its business prospects was near its peak.

????Tech investors typically bet on growth and this Spring, Facebook's (FB) growth rate was falling off a cliff. In just three-quarters leading to the May 18 offering, sales growth had dropped from more than 100% year over year, to less than 40%. Mobile revenue was virtually non-existent.

????Now Facebook seems to be turning a corner. Revenue growth is not back to where it was -- it likely never will be -- but it is no longer plummeting. And mobile revenue went from zero to a remarkable 14% of total, a feat that some analysts described as "extraordinary."

????Indeed, Facebook's vital signs suggest the patient has stabilized. On Tuesday, the company reported sales of $1.26 billion in the third quarter, up 32% from a year earlier. That's the same growth rate as in the previous quarter. More encouragingly, advertising revenue rose 36%, and excluding the impact of declining foreign currencies, it would have increased by 43%. Not bad. Shares were up 13% in after hours trading.

????So what happened? Facebook's disastrous IPO was obviously a wake up call. After proudly declaring to prospective investors that revenue would take a backseat to product, Zuckerberg appears to have changed his tune. He has worked overtime to rally his troops to the cause of monetization. In a notable change, the advertising experience, once an afterthought, was turned into a key responsibility for every product group. The company rolled out several new ad products, and pushed into e-commerce with Gifts, a service that allows user to buy items for each other on the Facebook platform.

????"It's clear that Facebook's management team views a strong stock as a strategic priority," says Jordan Rohan, an analyst with StifelNicolaus. "Many of the idealistic beliefs of yesteryear are changing."

????The changes are beginning to translate into better results, and on Tuesday, Zuckerberg sought to capitalize on those gains. During a conference call with analysts, he tried to persuade investors that their fears about the shift to mobileare misplaced. He called the "mobile opportunity" one of the "most misunderstood aspects" of Facebook's business.

????On mobile devices, Zuckerberg said, "we can reach more users, those users visit Facebook more often, and I think we will make more money." His top lieutenant, COO Sheryl Sandberg, hammered the point. "We have become one of the largest mobile advertising platforms in less than 8 months," she said.

????Mobile revenue is now coming in at an annualized rate of $600 million. Said Rohan: "Facebook's revenue from mobile is quite impressive."

????To be sure, Facebook is not out of the woods. Even with Tuesday's after market rally, shares remain more than 40% below their offering price of $38. They're likely to come under additional pressure in November and December as lockups that prevent some employees and early shareholders from selling expire. Some analysts worry that Facebook's push to monetize its service more aggressively could turn off some users. Many advertisers still question the effectiveness of Facebook. And Facebook's single biggest source of revenue, Zynga (ZYNGA), appears to be crumbling, though Zuckerberg said other gaming companies were doing just fine.

????In just five months since its IPO, Facebook has come a long way. Its aura of invincibility faded quickly, forcing Zuck& Co to go back to basics. Now the task of building a business to match the strength of Facebook's phenomenally successful service appears to be underway in earnest. That's all good. But Facebook will likely have to deliver many more quarters of steady improvement before it regains its luster on Wall Street and in Silicon Valley.

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