????這項(xiàng)最新分析對(duì)于全球汽車行業(yè)有著巨大的意義。近年來(lái)汽車行業(yè)一直在竭力達(dá)到越來(lái)越苛刻的政府燃油經(jīng)濟(jì)規(guī)定。除去氣候變化因素，如果未來(lái)有足夠的石油供應(yīng)，為什么要讓企業(yè)負(fù)擔(dān)相當(dāng)于每輛新車加價(jià)幾千美元的節(jié)油科技成本（而且最終轉(zhuǎn)嫁給消費(fèi)者）？

????誤區(qū)三：美國(guó)人永遠(yuǎn)不會(huì)買小型車。

????這句話人們已經(jīng)聽了很多年了：除非汽油價(jià)格高漲，否則美國(guó)人不想要小型車。美國(guó)是個(gè)大國(guó)，美國(guó)人塊頭也大，美國(guó)人不想放棄運(yùn)動(dòng)型多用途車（SUV）和皮卡車。

????這已是往事。如今小型車大賣，而且這不僅僅是由于油價(jià)。“傳統(tǒng)上，購(gòu)買小型車的人是因?yàn)橘I不起更大的車，”專業(yè)汽車網(wǎng)站TrueCar.com的行業(yè)分析師杰西?托普拉克告訴彭博社（Bloomberg）說(shuō)。“現(xiàn)在情況不是這樣了。我們看到人們選擇這些車，是因?yàn)檫@些車本身更有吸引力。”

????更有吸引力的部分原因是小車更好。日本制造商已迫使底特律提高品質(zhì)，增加安全氣囊、衛(wèi)星廣播等功能，而歐洲制造商則證明，Mini Cooper和寶馬1系（BMW 1-series）這樣的車也可以賣出好價(jià)錢。

????9月份，全系列20大熱銷車型中就有10款小型車和跨界車，包括雪佛蘭科魯茲（Chevrolet Cruze）、福特翼虎（Ford Escape）和豐田卡羅拉（Toyota Corolla）等，總共涉及8家不同的制造商。小型車合計(jì)占到美國(guó)汽車市場(chǎng)的五分之一，這是它們近20年來(lái)的最佳表現(xiàn)。

????誤區(qū)四：如果汽車公司不進(jìn)入新市場(chǎng)實(shí)行多元化，就會(huì)出問題。

????隨著北美銷售緩慢增長(zhǎng)、歐洲陷入深度衰退，全球汽車制造商已將業(yè)務(wù)快速拓展至中國(guó)、印度、俄羅斯和巴西等發(fā)展中國(guó)家。

????這令財(cái)富500強(qiáng)公司福特汽車（Ford Motor）在投資者眼中處于不利地位，因?yàn)樗M(jìn)入中國(guó)市場(chǎng)緩慢，業(yè)務(wù)仍然高度側(cè)重北美市場(chǎng)。事實(shí)上，福特的汽車制造業(yè)務(wù)利潤(rùn)估計(jì)約100%都來(lái)自在美國(guó)銷售的一個(gè)系列產(chǎn)品：F系列皮卡。

????摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）資深分析師亞當(dāng)?喬納斯深知這一切——他相信這對(duì)福特是件好事，至少短期內(nèi)是這樣。他在一份新報(bào)告中指出，福特在歐洲每年虧損10億美元，在南美和中國(guó)也沒掙到錢，或者只掙到了很少的錢。因此，他寫到：“我們相信在未來(lái)12-24個(gè)月，在中國(guó)汽車市場(chǎng)的業(yè)務(wù)比例低可能并不是什么壞事。我們并不懷疑行業(yè)銷量仍將是全球汽車行業(yè)的主要推動(dòng)力，但我們對(duì)于這一增長(zhǎng)的質(zhì)量和獲利能力持短期保留意見。”

????與此同時(shí)，他預(yù)計(jì)住宅建設(shè)顯著回升將大力推動(dòng)汽車市場(chǎng)和皮卡車的銷售。他并不認(rèn)為福特依賴單一市場(chǎng)有多危險(xiǎn)，相信隨著美國(guó)住房市場(chǎng)復(fù)蘇，福特將大有作為（而且有可能相當(dāng)賺錢）。

????譯者：早稻米

????This new analysis has enormous implications for the global auto industry, which has been racing to meet increasingly stringent government fuel economy regulations. Issues of climate change aside, if there is going to be plenty of oil available in the future, why burden companies -- and eventually consumers -- with the cost of fuel-saving technologies that are expected to add several thousand dollars to the price of a new car?

????Myth No. 3: Americans will never buy small cars

????You've heard it for years: Except when gas prices spike, Americans don't want small cars. It is a big country, we're big people, and we don't want to give up our SUVs and pickups.

????Not any more. Small cars are selling big, and it isn't just because of fuel prices. "Traditionally small cars were purchased by people who couldn't afford anything else," Jesse Toprak, an industry analyst for TrueCar.com, tells Bloomberg. "Right now, that's not the case. We see people choosing them because they find them more appealing."

????Part of the reason they are more appealing is small cars are better. Japanese manufacturers have forced Detroit to upgrade quality and include features like airbags and satellite radio, while European automakers have proved that small cars such as the Mini Cooper and the BMW 1-series can go for premium prices.

????Among the top 20 sellers in all categories in September were 10 small cars and crossovers, defined as compacts or smaller, from eight different makers, led by Chevrolet Cruze, Ford Escape, and Toyota Corolla. In all, small cars commanded a fifth of the market, their best showing in nearly 20 years.

????Myth No. 4: Auto companies suffer when they don't diversify into new markets.

????With sales in North America growing only slowly and Europe gripped by a deep recession, global automakers have been rapidly expanding into developing markets like China, India, Russia, and Brazil.

????That has put Ford Motor (F, Fortune 500) at a disadvantage with investors because it has been slow to move into China and remains heavily focused on North America. In fact, it's estimated that just about 100% of Ford's profit from automobile production comes from a single product sold mainly in the U.S: the F-series pickup truck.

????Veteran analyst Adam Jonas of Morgan Stanley knows all this -- and believes it is a good thing for Ford, at least in the short run. In a new report, he points out Ford is losing $1 billion a year in Europe and making little or nothing in South America and China. As a result, he writes: "We believe the next 12 to 24 months may not be the worst time to have a low exposure to the Chinese auto market. While we do not doubt industry volume will remain a key driver of the global auto sector, we have our near-term reservations about the quality and profitability of that growth."

????Meanwhile, he sees a dramatic upturn coming in residential construction that will sweep the automaker and its pickups along with it. Instead of viewing Ford as dangerously dependent on a single market, he views its stock as a massive -- and potentially very profitable -- play on a U.S. housing recovery.