????日本電子行業愈發低迷。當日本公司巨頭夏普（Sharp）面對這一片傾頹之時所思考的問題是：還要經過多少次的整頓、付出多大的努力，才能拯救曾經輝煌的科技產業。日本的分析人士則琢磨著下一個會輪到誰。

????日本戰后開始崛起，從電子制造業的新手一躍成為晶體管時代的領袖。日本最大的電視機制造商夏普親身經歷了這一切。不過一些觀察人士認為，夏普甚至差點就撐不到本月公司百年慶典的召開。盡管夏普削減了工資和崗位，但它的股價仍然大幅下滑（今年內股票跌幅已達到73%），公司遭遇了巨大的損失。與此同時，其他的電子產業巨頭如索尼（Sony）、奧林巴斯（Olympus）等也正在痛苦掙扎。它們的品牌形象，從日本國內精心制造的高端產品，淪為了在中國制造組裝的快餐式產品。“過去的好時光早已一去不復返，卻沒人意識到，”前蘋果（Apple）日本經銷商Hideki Onda在提及電子行業一夜之間競爭力的時候說了這么一番話。

????究竟是怎么回事？他說，日本的電子制造商沒有跟上世界的節奏。不像他們的競爭對手蘋果，日本的制造商近來不僅和世界脫軌，甚至也沒有迎合國內消費者的需求。如今，到了他們付出代價的時候。日本的電子制造商曾是無可爭議的行業巨擘，銷售總額高達6,000億美元，相當于荷蘭一國的經濟收入。但如今他們卻籠罩在國外公司的陰影之下：三星（Samsung）的資產是1,630億美元，蘋果公司則是6,340億美元。與之相比，按如今的市值，索尼、松下（Panasonic）和夏普的資產總和僅有540億美元。

????由于產品需求疲軟，日元卻持續堅挺，松下、索尼和夏普去年加起來損失了幾十億資產。而僅僅夏普一家公司就對銀行和債券持有人欠款多達310億美元。從這一系列數據可以看出，以韓國三星電子為首的國外競爭者對日本電子工業造成的打擊。

????位于東京的技術顧問格哈德?法索爾認為，造成這種現象的原因并不是因為日本的工藝水平不夠，或者說缺乏創新精神。為了讓日本主要的公司重整旗鼓，需要調整結構，轉變商業模式。他說：“日本在對數字革命的機遇把握上并沒有徹底失敗，但是成功和失敗并不取決于人們的期望……很多方面都陷入了困境。”

????日本曾經被盛贊的“持續改善”系統是通過對生產過程進行微調，從而獲得持續漸進的改進。它曾被世界上許多公司模仿，如今卻遭到了質疑。“日本的商業模式已經走到了盡頭，”讀賣研究所（Yomiuri Research Institute）的高級研究員丸山泰之在最近的一篇報告中指出。

????另一位位于東京的技術分析師威廉?H?佐藤認為，日本在知識產權和創新精神方面仍然有許多可取之處。不過和夏普一樣，NEC和松下公司都陷入了同樣的問題。“他們的企業文化并不適合當前的創新精神。他們沒有利用其創新思路來研制新產品、開發新市場，而是為其他亞洲經濟體創造了許多唾手可得的便利。”

????那些更機敏的競爭對手，比如三星，甚至中國的廠商，都讓日本制造商疲于應付。因此，分析師們預測日本制造業的衰退遠未結束。“日本公司應對不了價格的下降，也不知道如何利用自身的優勢。他們極力在海外市場同韓國三星這樣聰明的對手苦苦競爭，結果導致一敗涂地，”丸山在報告中這樣寫道。

????佐藤認為，結構體系方面的弱勢使問題更加嚴重。由于管理手段過時，領導能力缺乏，日本企業無法打造一支活力四射的全球團隊。而他們傾向于在行業內部整合弱小的公司，成立像夏普這樣的巨型公司。可是現在就連夏普自己也已經開始走向破產的道路。他有種不祥的預感：“這說明，像NEC這樣的公司也已經危在旦夕了。”很多人同意他的觀點。這個在日本排名第三的電子公司經年衰退，僅去年一月份就裁員1萬人。該公司于2009年撤出了歐洲個人電腦市場，并向蒸蒸日上的中國聯想集團（Lenovo Group）出售了2.35億美元的股票，以支撐下滑的銷售額。

????A much diminished electronics sector in Japan is buckling further still. How much more retrenchment and pain is needed to succor its once triumphant tech industry is the question now as Sharp Corp, one of Japan Inc.'s bigger beasts, faces ruin. Japan analysts are also pondering who could be next.

????Mirroring Japan's post-war rise from tinkering electronics amateurs to masters of the transistor age, Japan's biggest TV maker Sharp might not even make it past the 100-year-mark it celebrates this month suggest some observers. Wages and jobs have all been slashed, but Sharp is still suffering massive losses while its share price has fallen dramatically. (This year it is down 73%.) Meanwhile, the woes of other giants -- Sony (SNE), Olympus, and others -- are making the industry's fall from grace as palatable at home as a plate of Made-in-China McSushi. "The good old days walked out the door and no one noticed," says Hideki Onda former distributor for Apple (AAPL) Japan, referring to the sector's sudden loss of competitiveness.

????What happened? Japan's electronic makers just failed to keep up he says. Unlike competitors such as Apple, Japanese manufactures of late have not engaged the world, nor even their domestic customers, and are now paying the price. Once undisputed Titans of the consumer electronics with combined sales of $600 billion -- equal to the economy of the Netherlands -- now Japan's top electronics makers are shadowed by the likes of Samsung's $163 billion capitalization and Apple's $634 billion. In contrast Sony, Panasonic and Sharp combined are now worth only $54 billion at current market values.

????Amid weak demand and a painfully strong yen, Panasonic (PC), Sony and Sharp together lost billions last year, while Sharp alone owes $31 billion to the banks and other bond holders. Such figures underline the beating given Japan's electronics industry by foreign rivals led by South Korea's Samsung Electronics.

????It is not that Japan is short of engineering ability, brains or innovation says Gerhard Fasol a technology consultant based in Tokyo. But in order to thrive the country's major firms need to restructure and move to new business models. "Japan has not failed to capitalize on the digital revolution, but the successes/failures are not according to expectations...so many of them are in trouble," he says.

????The once lauded "kaizen" system, implementing constant refinements to improve quality by tweaking the production process, mimicked world-wide, is now discredited in one view. "The Japanese business model has reached a dead-end," writes Yasuyuki Maruyama senior researcher at the Yomiuri Research Institute in a recent report.

????And yet Japan still has much to offer in terms of intellectual property and innovation. But like Sharp, NEC and Panasonic are all in the same trap says Tokyo-based technology analyst William H. Saito. "They have a culture that is not required at this level [of innovation]. They are not converting to new products or markets. Instead they create low hanging fruit for other Asian economies."

????More agile rivals such as Samsung and even Chinese competitors make it difficult for Japanese manufactures to compete. As such, analysts forecast that the bloodletting is far from over yet. "Japanese corporations are unable to cope with falling prices and have no clue how to take advantage of their own strengths. Struggling to compete in overseas markets with nimbler rivals like South Korea's Samsung, their business results have collapsed," writes Maruyama.

????Structural and systemic weaknesses aggravate the problems. Outmoded management practices and lack of leadership have led to an inability to form dynamic global teams, while they tend, in the sector, to put weak companies together to create mega-firms like Sharp that lead to bankruptcy explains Saito. "This means that companies like NEC are next on the hatchet," he adds ominously. Many agree. Years of decline at Japan's number three electronics business has led to 10,000 firings last January, withdrawal from Europe's PC market in 2009 and the selling of $235 million in shares of the surging Chinese computer-maker Lenovo Group to bolster plunging sales.