我們還是做朋友吧

????摩根士丹利公司（Morgan Stanley）的資深汽車分析師亞當?喬納斯近日拋出一段高論，引發業界一陣喧嘩。他建議，通用汽車（General Motors）應該改弦易轍，賣掉歐寶（Opel），而不要試圖挽救它。他的理由是：這家公司會給通用汽車其他業務板塊帶來潛在虧損。在他看來，“歐洲汽車市場顯著衰退，運營虧損不斷增加，”因此他把歐寶稱為“通用汽車長期財務健康和可持續發展能力最大的威脅”。

????如此壯士斷腕必然代價不菲。喬納斯估計，出售歐寶的現金成本將達到70億美元到130億美元，但他堅信，這一舉動將使通用汽車的平均每股收益增長近1美元（或20%），最終將推動通用股價上漲超過50%。

????賣掉歐寶當然是一劑猛藥，但其他汽車廠商在甩掉虧損業務后都實現了復蘇。喬納斯在報告里援引了兩筆類似的交易，但實際上過去30年間這種案例已超過6件之多。下面就是這些案例的概貌。

雷諾-美國汽車公司

????美國汽車公司（AMC）的財務狀況始終岌岌可危，而雷諾公司（Renault）作為這家公司的法資老板，在改變這一局面上一直無所作為。20世紀80年代中期，油價大幅走低，導致美國汽車公司的小型車一夜之間失去了市場。而曾經主管美國汽車公司、爾后擔任雷諾總裁的喬治?貝斯在1986年遭暗殺后，雷諾就將美國汽車公司作價15億美元賣給了克萊斯勒公司（Chrysler）。

結局

????這樁交易對克萊斯勒來說卻是一筆天降橫財。它充分發展了美國汽車公司的吉普（Jeep）車業務，把它打造成了一個巨大的賺錢機器。1999年，雷諾做了一項長期并購投資，收購了當時境況不佳的日產汽車（Nissan）36.8%的股份。此后，在首席執行官卡洛斯?戈恩的帶領下，雷諾-日產合資公司開始了蒸蒸日上的發展歷程。

寶馬-羅孚集團

????1994年，英國航宇公司（British Aerospace）將其所持有的羅孚集團（Rover Group）80%的股權以13.5億美元的價格賣給了寶馬汽車（BMW）。當時寶馬正在尋找一個相對低端的品牌充實其豪華性能車陣營。但是，盡管花了28億美元的預算投資于新車型，寶馬卻從來沒有真正扭轉過羅孚低效過時的做法，以至于這一收購最終成了個無底洞。2000年，寶馬將羅孚集團分拆后，將路虎（Land Rover）賣給了福特汽車（Ford），將羅孚汽車賣給了一個投資財團，僅保留了MINI這一品牌。

結局

????福特也無法讓路虎重振雄風，只好在2008年將它賣給了印度的塔塔汽車公司（Tata Motors）。收購羅孚汽車的財團也沒有起死回生的良方，只好在2005年停產了事。但MINI卻成了寶馬的一大搖錢樹，MINI Cooper更是成了大名鼎鼎的高端小型車。在收購羅孚遭遇慘敗后，寶馬自己也經歷了一次管理層的巨大動蕩，但重出江湖后卻比以前任何時候都所向披靡。喬納斯特別提到，盡管寶馬花了27億美元才將羅孚清理出門戶，但其股價卻“隨之打了個漂亮的翻身仗，一路飆升”。

福特-捷豹路虎

????1989年，福特花了24億美元收購捷豹（Jaguar）；2000年，它花了30億美元收購路虎，最后卻將這兩家英國公司以23億美元的價格賣給了印度的塔塔汽車——還不到當初出價的一半。這兩家公司表現如此不盡人意，以至于一位分析師嘲笑塔塔此舉為“虛榮的一擲千金”。在福特治下的19年間，捷豹從來沒有賺過一個子兒，而路虎似乎始終就無法造出一輛品質能配得上其高昂售價的車。

Let's just be friends

????Veteran Morgan Stanley auto analyst Adam Jonas caused a recent stir when he suggested that General Motors reverse course and sell its Opel affiliate rather than try to save it. Reason: its potential damage to the rest of GM. Seeing what he described as "a significant deterioration in the European car market and widening operating losses," Jonas called Opel "the single biggest threat to GM's long term financial health and sustainability."

????Such an amputation would not come cheaply. Jonas figures that the cash cost of a separation would be $7 billion to $13 billion, but he believes that ultimately it would drive a more than 50% appreciation to GM's stock by driving earnings per share up nearly a dollar (or 20%).

????Selling Opel would be harsh medicine, but other automakers have prospered after dumping money-losing operations. Jonas cites two similar transactions in his report, but there have been a half dozen others in the past 30 years. Here's a look at how they turned out:

Renault-AMC

????AMC had always led a precarious financial existence, and Renault, its French owner, wasn't much help in changing that. When gas became cheap in the mid-1980s, the market moved away from AMC's small cars. After Renault chairman George Besse, who had championed AMC, was assassinated in 1986, Renault sold it to Chrysler for $1.5 billion.

Bottom Line

????The deal produced a windfall for Chrysler, which leveraged AMC's Jeep business into a huge moneymaker. Renault made a longer-lasting acquisition in 1999 when it acquired 36.8% of then-struggling Nissan. The Renault-Nissan alliance has mostly thrived since then under CEO Carlos Ghosn.

BMW-Rover Group

????In 1994, British Aerospace sold its 80% majority share in Rover Group for $1.35 billion to BMW, which was looking for a lower-end brand to complement its luxury performance cars. But despite budgeting $2.8 billion to invest in new models, it never fully confronted Rover's inefficient and antiquated practices, and the acquisition turned into a sinkhole. In 2000, BMW broke up the group. It sold Land Rover to Ford and Rover cars to an investor consortium and decided to keep MINI for itself.

Bottom Line

????Ford struggled with Land Rover before selling it to Tata Motors of India in 2008. The Rover Car consortium failed and production ceased in 2005. But MINI has been a boon for BMW with its MINI Cooper creating what has become known as the premium small segment. BMW itself went through a management upheaval after the Rover fiasco but emerged stronger than ever. Analyst Jonas notes that while it cost BMW $2.7 billion to exit Rover, its stock "subsequently appreciated handsomely."

Ford-Jaguar Land Rover

????Having acquired Jaguar in 1989 for $2.4 billion and Land Rover in 2000 for $3 billion, Ford sold the two U.K. companies to India's Tata Motors for $2.3 billion -- less than half of what it had paid for them. The two companies were performing so poorly that one analyst derided Tata's move as "a vanity purchase." Jaguar never made a nickel in 19 years of Ford's ownership, while Land Rover seemed incapable of building vehicles of a quality commensurate with its upscale prices.