????通常情況下，如果并購之后在本地市場仍有三四家競爭對手，這樣的并購一般都能獲得監管部門的批準。但如果競爭對手只剩兩家，就會引起監管部門的嚴重擔憂。汽車租賃市場的競爭性原本就非常有限，因此，赫茲與Dollar/Thrifty合并之后，至少在好幾個地方市場將出現只有它們兩家公司競爭的情形。

????不過就在昨天，為了提高投資者對收購的信心，赫茲宣布將出售旗下的休閑旅行子公司優勢租車。與此同時，公司還表示，為了獲得監管部門批準，公司已經做好了其他讓步準備。但它并未透露讓步的具體內容，以及合并后的公司將為此付出的代價。不過，需要注意的是，雖然出售優勢看起來已經是不小的讓步，但實際上并非如此。優勢本身在美國國內汽車租賃市場所占的份額不足1%，所以赫茲放棄優勢不會有太大用處。據彭博新聞社（Bloomberg News）報道，優勢業務的售價只有1,600萬美元，這也證明這項項業務根本達不到赫茲聲稱的價值水平。

????另外，即便收購獲得政府批準，赫茲也有可能被要求剝離部分業務或做出妥協，為區域性汽車租賃公司創造公平的競爭環境。而這么做需要付出高昂的成本。如果政府態度強硬，赫茲可能被迫讓步。從長期來看，可能遠遠高于合并帶來的成本協同效益。之前，公司曾聲稱合并之后每年可以實現1.6億美元的成本協同效益。此外，赫茲和市場均深信不疑的收入協同效益也會大打折扣。

????問題還是在于，赫茲能否實現有意義的收入協同效益，來補償收購Dollar Thrifty所支付的溢價。這一點很大程度上取決于汽車租賃行業未來的發展。過去幾年，汽車租賃行業收入經歷了兩位數的增長。但由于經濟陷入停滯，形勢可能急轉直下。經過幾個季度的強勁增長之后，今年第二季度，Dollar Thrifty公司公布的收入情況與去年同期持平。這還是在公司最大限度削減成本的基礎上才取得的成績。

????影響汽車租賃行業未來收入的另外一個因素是近期二手車價格的下跌。上個月，二手車價格比去年同期出現下跌，三年來尚屬首次。而汽車租賃公司經常需要轉賣車輛，因此受到二手車市場的制約。據摩根士丹利公司（Morgan Stanley）披露，二手車價格1%的波動對汽車租賃公司稅前利潤的影響幅度便在10%左右。預計二手車價格下降的趨勢將一直延續到年底，這對于需要證明此項交易價值的赫茲來說無異于雪上加霜。當然，這一切的前提是交易能夠順利完成。

????現在存在這么多的不確定因素，也就難怪之前公布的并購協議條款會如此慷慨。據報道，協議規定，Dollar公司有30天時間可自由接受其他出價，隨時可以中止協議，無需支付補償金。這要么表明赫茲與Dollar Thrifty信心十足，認定交易必將順利完成；要么意味著兩家公司底氣不足，提前給彼此留好了退路。無論如何，如果赫茲希望公司股票繼續保持近期的勢頭，未來幾個月，它肯定得好好向投資者解釋一番。

????譯者：劉進龍/汪皓

????Regulators will usually approve mergers if it leaves three or four competitors in a local market, but they start to show grave concern when it gets down to two. Given the limited competition already in the car rental market, there are several local markets where a Hertz and Dollar/Thrifty merger would lead to just such a scenario.

????Nevertheless, Hertz tried to instill confidence in the deal yesterday by announcing the sale of its leisure-focused Advantage subsidiary. At the same time, the company said it is prepared to make other concessions to get the deal past regulators, but stopped short of saying what those concessions could be and how much revenue it could cost the combined company. But it should be noted that while jettisoning Advantage seems like a big concession, it really isn't. Advantage on its own makes up less that 1% of the domestic car rental market, so its loss doesn't move the needle much. Hertz apparently sold the business for a piddling $16 million, according to Bloomberg News, which means that the business wasn't worth that much anyway.

????But even if the government approves the merger, Hertz may be asked to divest some of its operations or make accommodations to level the playing field for regional car rental companies. This could get very expensive on many levels. If the government plays hardball, Hertz could be asked to make concessions that in the long run could far outweigh the $160 million in annual cost synergies that the company claims it can squeeze out of a tie-up. It would also decrease any revenue synergies that both Hertz and the market believe could be in the cards.

????The question still remains as to whether or not the company could achieve meaningful revenue synergies to account for the premium Hertz just paid to absorb Dollar Thrifty. Part of that rests on the future of the car rental business. The last few years have been great, with double-digit percentage increases in revenue, but that could be coming to a swift end as the economy stalls. Dollar Thrifty reported flat revenue growth for the second quarter of this year compared with the same time last year after posting several strong quarters of growth. It actually made its numbers by slashing costs to the bone.

????Also impacting future revenues is the recent dip in used car prices. Last month was the first month in three years that used car prices reported a decrease in value from the same time last year. That's important because rental car companies are a slave to the used car market as they constantly turnover cars. In fact a 1% move in used prices impacts the pretax profit of rental car companies by 10%, according to Morgan Stanley. The decline in used car values is expected to continue through the year, which will make it that much harder for Hertz to justify this deal – that's, of course, if it ever actually gets done.

????With so many unknowns it is no wonder that the deal has an extremely liberal merger agreement. Dollar reportedly has 30 days to freely entertain other bids and could walk away from the deal at any time without paying a breakup fee. This means that Hertz and Dollar Thrifty are either super confident that the deal will get done or are so unsure that they built an escape hatch. Either way, Hertz will have a lot of explaining to do in the next few months if it intends on keeping the recent pop in its stock.