????游戲產業并不全是有趣的“游戲”。經歷了多年的高速發展之后，各大游戲廠商目前都陷入了困境。捉襟見肘的消費者，老化的游戲機系統，從實體媒體向數字媒體的大規模轉變，這些因素令微軟（Microsoft）、任天堂（Nintendo）和索尼（Sony）等傳統游戲廠商頭疼不已。這三家公司都在準備推出他們的新一代游戲。問題在于，他們如何站穩腳跟？

????作為三巨頭之一的微軟肯定很自信。過去18個月里，它的游戲機在美國的銷量每個月都超過任天堂和索尼。微軟在7月份的一篇博客文章中寫到，Xbox 360在6月份的美國游戲機銷售市場上獲得了47%的市場份額，連續16個月達到或超過40%。

????幾年前，沒人能料到微軟能取得這樣的成功。那時，Xbox 360還無法與價格更低、具有動作識別功能的任天堂Wii一較高下。但后來，微軟憑借自己的動作識別周邊外設Kinect贏得了游戲玩家的青睞。微軟的另一重要舉措是讓游戲發行商確保Xbox 360成為新聞熱點。微軟還積極增加Xbox Live服務的娛樂內容，包括全天候的ESPN和HBO Go節目，使Xbox 360成為家庭媒體中心。此外，微軟還采取減價措施，把這款游戲機的價格降到了199美元。這些舉措幫助微軟成為了游戲行業里的一支主導力量。

????與此同時，任天堂卻輝煌不再。當前這代游戲機推出之前，Wii曾在競爭中遙遙領先。那時，任天堂的游戲機擁有動作感應游戲，而競爭對手卻沒有。Wii也比Xbox 360和PlayStation 3便宜得多。或許同樣重要的是，任天堂游戲機的宣傳鋪天蓋地，無人能比。于是，任天堂看著銷量飛漲。

????然而，這種成功已經成為過去。在面市的頭兩年（2006年和2007年），Wii全球銷量達到2,000萬臺，在2008年和2009年更是超過了這個數字。但此后，銷量就開始下滑，2011年只售出1,160萬臺。任天堂成，上一個季報期內，Wii全球銷量只有71萬臺，大大低于去年同期的160萬臺。換句話說，Wii正在一步步走向末路。

????Wii失寵之前，掌上游戲機業務也經歷了同樣令人不安的衰落過程。多年以來，索尼和任天堂將大量資金投入了掌上游戲機領域。任天堂因為其備受歡迎的Game Boy以及受歡迎程度甚至更高的DS而聞名于世。索尼的PlayStation Portable花了一段時間才取得進展，但也贏得了一批追隨者。

????但如今，分別推出了3DS和PlayStation Vita的任天堂和索尼正面臨著前所未有的不利局面。據任天堂表示，3DS在上個季度的全球銷量達到了186萬部。這個數字相當高，但還算不上重磅炸彈。索尼PlayStation Vita（該新款掌上游戲機配備了3G無線上網等先進技術和大尺寸觸摸屏）的銷售開局良好，但后繼乏力。

????原因何在？要怪就怪谷歌（Google）的安卓（Android）系統和蘋果（Apple）的iOS系統。

????智能手機和平板電腦越來越受歡迎，它們的性能更加強大。與此同時，藝電（Electronic Arts）等大型游戲發行商意識到，玩家日益傾向于使用這些設備來玩游戲。為什么不呢？如今的智能手機和平板電腦帶來了高質量的視覺效果。而且，從電話和短信切換到視頻游戲十分方便，非常有吸引力，令人難以抗拒。

????這可能就是移動游戲收入在過去幾年里大幅增長的原因所在。據市場調研公司Flurry Analytics的資料顯示，2009年美國移動游戲軟件收入的70%都歸任天堂所有。去年，這個比例已經下降到了36%。與此同時，iOS和安卓收入之和在美國移動游戲收入中的占比則從三年前的19%增加到了去年的58%。在上個月發給投資者的報告中，投資研究公司Cowen的分析師道格?克魯茲對另外一家受到智能手機沖擊的社交游戲公司星佳（Zynga）提出了一些質疑。但他的擔憂同樣適用于任天堂和索尼。他寫道：“我們認為，消費者偏好正果斷地轉向手機游戲，因為手機游戲質量相仿、甚至更好。而且，手機游戲擁有隨時隨地都可以玩的額外優勢。”

????幾年前，游戲產業由家用游戲機、電腦和掌上游戲機推動。贏家之所以成為贏家，主要是因為更好的時機和更好的游戲。但如今，游戲本身似乎正退居次席。動作感應等熱門技術與上網或觀看流媒體影視節目同等重要。或許最為重要的一點是，以前的成功無法保證他們在未來也能取得成功。

????譯者：千牛絮

????The games business isn't all fun and, well, games. After years of impressive growth, major game companies are struggling. Depressed consumers, aging console systems, and a massive shift from physical to digital media have created new headache for traditional firms like Microsoft, Nintendo and Sony. All three are gearing up their next generation of games. Question is, how will they stack up?

????Microsoft (MSFT), for one, must be feeling confident. It has sold more consoles in the U.S. than Nintendo (NTDOY) or Sony (SNE) every single month for the last 18 months. And in a blog post in July, the company reported that the Xbox 360 captured 47% of all U.S. hardware sales in June, making it the 16th consecutive month it was able to reach 40% or higher.

????Microsoft's success wasn't predicted years ago when the Xbox 360 couldn't match Nintendo's cheaper, motion-reading Wii. But Microsoft has been able to win over gamers by delivering its own motion peripheral, the Kinect. Another key move has been getting publishers to ensure the Xbox 360 gets the top titles. Microsoft has also aggressively added entertainment offerings to its Xbox Live service, including 24-hour ESPN programming and HBO Go, turning the device into a home media hub. That, coupled with price reductions that have brought the console down to $199, has helped Microsoft become a dominant force in the industry.

????The same can no longer be said for Nintendo. When the current generation of consoles kicked off, the Wii was far ahead. Nintendo's console had motion gaming and competitors didn't. The Wii was far cheaper than the Xbox 360 or PlayStation 3. And perhaps just as importantly, Nintendo had the kind of hype surrounding its console the others couldn't muster. Nintendo watched its sales soar.

????All of that success came early on, however. In its first two years of availability -- 2006 and 2007 -- the Wii hit 20 million unit sales worldwide. In both 2008 and 2009, Nintendo sold over 20 million units. Since then, sales have fallen off, culminating with 2011 unit sales of just 11.6 million. During its last-reported quarter, Nintendo said that it sold just 710,000 Wii units worldwide, down from the 1.6 million units it sold during the same period last year. In other words, the Wii is dying.

????The Wii's fall from grace follows the similarly disconcerting demise of the gaming handheld business. Both Sony (SNE) and Nintendo had for years made boatloads of cash with gaming handhelds. Nintendo is best known for its popular Game Boy, and its even-more-popular DS. Sony's PlayStation Portable took a while to get off the ground, but found a following.

????Now, though, Nintendo and Sony, armed with their 3DS and PlayStation Vita, respectively, are facing headwinds like never before. According to Nintendo, worldwide sales of its 3DS hit 1.86 million last quarter -- a respectable figure, but not blockbuster. And after a strong opening, Sony's PlayStation Vita -- a new portable loaded with technology goodies like 3G wireless and a big touch screen -- is having trouble keeping sales up.

????Why? Blame it on Google (GOOG) Android and Apple's (AAPL) iOS.

????Smartphones and tablets are becoming more popular and their components more powerful. Meanwhile, major game publishers, like Electronic Arts (ERTS), are realizing that gamers increasingly prefer to use those devices to play titles. And why not? Smartphones and tablets today deliver high-quality visuals at every turn. And the sheer convenience of being able to switch from a phone call or text message to a video game is too appealing to pass up.

????That's likely why mobile gaming revenue has transitioned so dramatically in the last several years. Back in 2009, according to research firm Flurry Analytics, Nintendo owned 70% of all U.S. portable game software revenue. Last year, that figure dropped to 36%. Meanwhile, iOS and Android's revenue has combined to grow from just 19% three years ago to 58% last year. In a note to investors last month, Cowen analyst Doug Creutz issued some doubts about Zynga (ZNGA), another gaming company impacted by smartphones. But his concerns could just as well be directed at Nintendo or Sony. "We believe that consumer preferences may be switching decisively to mobile games, given that game quality is similar, if not better, and mobile games have the added advantage of being playable at any time, anywhere," he wrote.

????Years ago, the gaming industry was driven by consoles, PCs, and handhelds. And the winners won mostly because of better timing and better games. Now, the games themselves appear to be taking a back seat. Whiz-bang technologies like motion-capture matter as much as access to the Internet or streaming movies and television shows. And, perhaps most importantly, past success doesn't ensure them same in the future.