????互聯網泡沫的破滅時間毋庸置疑：那是2000年3月10日，當天納斯達克指數（Nasdaq）達到峰值——5,132.52點。但社交媒體泡沫破滅的確切時間呢？是2011年11月23日嗎？當時團購網站Groupon的股價跌破20美元的發行價。要不就是在Groupon股價跌至逼近5美元的本周？還是今年5月18日？當天Facebook股票的首次公開發行（IPO）慘淡收場。還是最近這段時間呢？最近Facebook股價首次跌到20美元以下。或者是社交游戲公司Zynga的股價開始跌到3美元以下那天？與它的發行價相比，這意味著高達70%的跌幅。到底是哪個時間，一時間很難定論。但無法辯駁的是，這個泡沫確實已經破裂了。

????時過境遷何其速也。僅僅一年前，硅谷精英們還熱衷于辯論大家是否身處泡沫中。眾多硅谷精英人士都持否定立場，認為所謂的泡沫迫在眉睫論純屬無稽之談，不值一哂。他們堅稱，這些社交網絡公司都是貨真價實的實體企業，它們收入猛增，盈利狀況良好。這些人士認為，這次可沒有什么Pets.com或Webvan（兩家都是2000年互聯網泡沫時期興也勃，亡也忽的代表性企業——譯注）之流的泡沫公司了。也許他們言之有理。但是現在，僅僅是Groupon、Facebook和Zynga這三家企業就給投資者造成了上百億美元的損失，可見情況的確截然不同。

????當然，即便是虧損累累，這些公司也沒有任何一家到了要關門大吉的地步。社交媒體也還遠遠談不上奄奄一息。真正生機不再的是全世界對“一切皆社交”（all things social）這股熱潮的熱衷勁兒。應該說，光是這種態度的轉變本身就有著十分深遠的影響。

????以馬克?扎克伯格這位社交網絡的圣人為例吧。多年來，他一直對我們諄諄教導：我們所做的每件事——打游戲，聽音樂，讀書看報，購物，甚至是工作——如果是和朋友一起做的話，效果會更好。而且，他還向我們提出忠告，各個產業最終都會圍繞社交媒體進行重建——換言之，就是圍繞Facebook重建。

????無數企業無比忠實地追隨著扎克伯格所描繪的愿景，亦步亦趨。其中一些，比如Zynga和流媒體音樂服務供應商Spotify之所以如此完全是因為他們對扎克伯格的話堅信不疑；而另外一些這么做則是出于恐懼，他們擔心如果不緊跟潮流，而有朝一日扎克伯格所說的話得到驗證，他們將失去立足之地。甚至連谷歌（Google）這樣的業界巨擘也覺得自己必須跳上這輛社交媒體的時尚花車。

????然而現在，眾人對扎克伯格美好愿景的信念已經開始動搖。將來，他也許依然能夠在硅谷或類似的數碼勝地的“總統山”（Mount Rushmore，此處喻指某個領域拓荒者的紀念碑——譯注）上占據一席之地。也許仍能打造出一家基業長青的公司——規模堪與谷歌和微軟（Microsoft）媲美。但是也許，他又會功敗垂成。今天，他是一位被迫快速成長的年輕首席執行官，統領著一家規模龐大、增速卻顯著放緩的企業。他已經成功打造了一種深受歡迎的服務形式，但卻仍在尋找能與之相稱的商業模式。換言之，Facebook必須找到自己的AdWords，正是這個搜索廣告引擎每年為谷歌帶來了上百億美元的收入。

????Facebook目前的苦苦掙扎對其他社交媒體平臺來說當然不是什么好消息，比如Pinterest、Quora或Path。它們也許也吸引了大批用戶，但同樣面臨苦苦尋覓商業模式的挑戰。江湖排名第二的社交媒體平臺Twitter也是如此。盡管這家公司暗示，它的廣告業務模式已經開始奏效，甚至在移動設備上也管用，但毫無疑問，公司管理層目睹扎克伯格眼下所經歷的痛苦難免不為Twitter至今仍屬私人公司而竊喜。正因為保持了這個屬性，公司才能不受媒體打擾，同時避免投資者的壓力，得以繼續開展自己的試驗。

????保持私有屬性或許算是一大優勢，但無論是私人公司還是公共公司，都難免會在一個至關重要的方面受到當前社交媒體圈動蕩的影響：那就是員工士氣。如果社交媒體不再是確保快速致富的康莊大道——如果無法再誕生另一個圖片分享服務Instagram這樣的公司——那么吸引、留住頂尖人才將變得難上加難。硅谷技術預測的資深人士保羅?薩夫稱：“頂級人才總是這山望著那山高。公司里最好的員工總想著要另覓高枝。Facebook在這方面的情況已變得更嚴重了，而Zynga的情況則尤為緊迫。因為這兩家公司的人才庫都在加速流失。”

????人才流失的壓力已顯而易見。有報告稱，硅谷各家創業公司正收到大批來自Zynga員工的求職簡歷。Groupon的銷售團隊據稱也蠢蠢欲動。自IPO以來，Facebook已經損失了好幾位高管。隨著它們的頂級員工將目光投向大數據或移動支付這類最新技術潮流，那些資歷更淺的公司也會很快面臨同樣的挑戰——或者如蒙老天眷顧，他們痛下決心，浪子回頭，重新回到谷歌或蘋果（Apple）的安樂窩。

????盡管面臨如此眾多的巨大挑戰，社交媒體平臺還是其他企業觸達用戶和應用軟件推廣發行的有效渠道。在這一前沿領域，社交革命還只是剛剛起步。這方面案例太多，不勝枚舉。想想Wetpaint，作為一個娛樂網站，它僅用了一年時間就成為訪問量最大的網站之一。它的成功之道是什么？原來它深諳如何充分運用社交媒體，來自這一平臺的訪問量目前已經占到其總訪問量的40%。Wetpaint位于西雅圖，它的首席執行官本?伊魯提茲稱：“對我們來說，社交媒體一直就是最重要的用戶來源。”他還表示，絕大多數媒體公司在試驗和學習如何運用社交媒體平臺上還處于學步階段。他說：“一年前，所有人都認為，必須搭上社交這趟車，不管什么業務都不能掉隊。而今天，大家都把焦點放到了社交媒體究竟能帶來什么成果這個問題上。”

????There's no doubt as to when the dot-com bubble popped: it was on March 10, 2000, the day the Nasdaq peaked at 5,132.52. But when exactly did the social media bubble pop? Was it Nov. 23, when Groupon shares fell below their $20 IPO price or this week, when they neared $5? Was it May 18, the day of Facebook's IPO fiasco? Was it even more recently, when Facebook shares dipped below $20 for the first time or the day Zynga's began trading at less than $3 each, a whopping 70% below their offering price? Hard to say. But pop, it did.

????How quickly things have changed. It was just a year ago that Silicon Valley was gripped by anare-we-or-are-we-not in a bubble debate. Many of the Valley's brightest lights took the latter position, rejecting out of hand the notion that a bubble was at hand. These were all real companies, they insisted, with soaring revenue and healthy profits. There were no Pets.coms or Webvans this time around. Perhaps. But now, with Groupon (GRPN), Facebook (FB) and Zynga (ZNGA) alone accounting for tens of billions in losses to investors, it's a different story.

????Of course, even bloodied, none of these companies is going out of business. Social media is hardly dead. What's dead is the world's wild infatuation with all things social. That change alone could have profound implications.

????Take Mark Zuckerberg, the oracle of the social Web. For years, he has told us that just about everything we do -- playing games and listening to music, reading books and browsing the newspaper, shopping and even working -- is better done with friends. And he has told us that, as a result, industry after industry would rebuild itself around social -- in other words, around Facebook.

????Plenty of businesses dutifully fell in lock step behind Zuck's vision. Some, like Zynga or Spotify, because they believed he was right; others because they feared what would happen if they didn't and Zuck turned out to be right. Even mighty Google (GOOG) felt it had to jump onto the social bandwagon.

????Now, faith in Zuckerberg's vision has been shaken. He may still earn a spot in the Mount Rushmore of Silicon Valley some day (or its digital equivalent). He may still build a company for the ages -- one that is as large as Google or Microsoft (MSFT). But then again, he may not. Today, he is a young CEO who is being forced to grow up fast. He's heading a large business whose rate of growth is slowing dramatically. He's built a hugely popular service, but he is still searching for a business model to match. In other words, Facebook has yet to find its AdWords, the search advertising engine that mints billions for Google every year.

????Facebook's struggles are not good news for other social media platforms, be it Pinterest, Quora or Path. They may have traction with users, but they too will grapple with similar business model challenges. The same is true for Twitter, the No. 2 social media platform. While the company has given hints that its advertising model is working, even on mobile devices, there's no doubt that its executives are watching Zuck's travails and rejoicing that Twitter is still private, so that it can continue to experiment out of the spotlight and pressure from investors.

????Being private may be an advantage, but the turbulence in social media will impact private and public companies equally in one crucial realm: employee morale. If social media is no longer a sure-fire path to rapid riches -- if there's not going to be another Instagram -- attracting and retaining top people is going to get tougher. "The best talent is always looking over the fence," says Paul Saffo, the veteran Silicon Valley technology forecaster. "Your best employees are always thinking of leaving," he adds. "That's become more acute for Facebook and it is especially acute for Zynga, because they are burning their employees out."

????The strains are already apparent. Reports suggest that Valley startups are seeing a flood of resumes from Zynga employees. Groupon's legions of sales people are also reportedly restless. Facebook lost several senior executives since the IPO. The younger companies could soon face similar challenges, as their best employees turn their attention to the latest fad, be it big data or mobile payments -- or heavens forbid, they decide it's time to head back to the safety and comfort of Google or Apple (AAPL).

????Despite these enormous challenges, social media platforms remain effective ways for other businesses to reach audiences and for apps to gain distribution. On that front, the social revolution is just getting started. The examples are too many to name. But consider, Wetpaint, an entertainment Web site that in just a year became one of the most visited on the Web. How? Figuring out how to leverage social media, which has accounted for 40% of its traffic. "For us, social media has been the most important source of audience," says Ben Elowtiz, the CEO of Wetpaint, which is based in Seattle. Elowitz says most media companies are just starting to experiment and learn how to take advantage of social. "A year ago, everyone thought that had to be doing social, no matter what," he says. "Today, the focus is on what results social can drive."