歐洲科技創業方興未艾
????2. 另外,歐洲實行強制的遣散費制度,這一制度根本沒有意識到初創企業的高風險性質。初創企業很難撥出資金,為將來可能支付強制遣散費預留一部分錢,但如果不提前準備,很可能終生都要追究你的責任。歐洲需要為天使支持的企業建立一個特殊的體制。我提議,所有成立不足3年、雇員不滿10人且尚未盈利的公司無需支付就業稅或強制遣散費。 ????3. 最后,創業者不應因創辦這些公司而承擔個人債務,應賦予個人宣布破產的權利,就像美國一樣。 Facebook剛剛開設了第一家海外技術開發中心,他們把它設在了倫敦。谷歌也在東倫敦開了一家初創企業孵化中心,包括TechHub等4個不同的孵化器,TechHub將入駐幾十家初創公司。倫敦是不是正在超越其他城市成為初創企業地區制高點? ????卡梅倫政府至今尚未在宏觀層面打開經濟增長和就業局面,英國經濟正在承受痛苦。但唐寧街10號在吸引頂尖科技公司前往英國設立分支機構方面做得非常出色。我自己就被邀請參加了好幾次活動,英國財政大臣喬治?奧斯本、英國首相戴維?卡梅倫,甚至安德魯王子都親自到場,向來自全球的創業家發表講話,鼓動他們到英國投資。 ????就這一點而言,我認為,倫敦是在歐洲創立新公司的最佳城市。不好的一面是,倫敦是一個非常昂貴的城市,經營成本很高。 ????雖然英國提供一種創業簽證,非歐盟創業者可以迅速移居英國開辦企業,但其余的雇員卻并不享有簡便的簽證政策。因此,美國的創業家可以很容易地移居倫敦,但要將他們的高級經理們帶到英國來就沒那么方便了。 你與硅谷公司和華爾街銀行都保持著聯系——你怎么看目前的市場變化?特別是在最近很多IPO股票上市后走低的情況下? ????最近,在Allen and Company于美國太陽谷召開的會議上,我得以親眼見證了硅谷與華爾街之間的脫節,最近的科技股估值就是這種脫節的反映。出席太陽谷會議的頂尖硅谷創業者,像馬克?安德森、雷德?霍夫曼、馬克?扎克伯格、謝爾蓋?布林、蒂姆?庫克等等,都有這樣一種感覺,華爾街根本“不懂科技”。 ????硅谷領導人們感到不滿的是,像蘋果、谷歌這些公司的市盈率目前都處于歷史低位,特別是,如果剔除這些公司以驚人速度累積的現金之后,它們的市盈率會更低。比如,擁有1,000億美元現金的蘋果。在利率接近于零的情況下,為什么這些每年盈利增長20%的公司獲得的市盈率只有11倍?這在硅谷創業者看來完全沒有道理。他們說的有道理。 ????與此同時,出席太陽谷會議的一些全球最大的投資公司(其中大部分總部都在紐約)的高管似乎來自另一個星球。就好像硅谷創業者來自火星,而華爾街投資者來自金星。華爾街投資者的反應是:“科技就是流行一時的風潮”,誰知道蘋果、谷歌的利潤增長能維持多久。他們現在看著Facebook,心里想的卻是接下來誰將是明日之星,就像當初Facebook超越Myspace一樣。硅谷創業者相信自己永遠地改變了世界,但華爾街看著他們說:“今天是你,明天就會冒出下一顆新星:蘋果,我們不會給你高市盈率。因為明天就會有人把你變成下一個諾基亞(Nokia),你的利潤率很快就會下降,你的創新精神也將消失殆盡。”華爾街說的也許沒錯。 很多創業者關注社交媒體初創公司——有很多重大的挑戰,沒有受到那么多關注——這種趨勢會繼續下去嗎? ????社交媒體的吸引力在于這是一個不斷增長的巨大業務,而且進入門檻相當低。想想雅虎(Yahoo)、谷歌、甚至Youtube起步時的投資規模吧,再把它們跟Instagram極低的啟動資金比比看。因此,創業者都夢想組建下一支12人團隊,打造一款應用軟件,然后在幾年內建立一家公司,再以10億美元的價格賣出去。但問題是,成百萬的人都擁有同樣的夢想,但卻只有12個人能美夢成真。 ????為iPhone和安卓手機開發應用軟件,還能培育出很多的10億美元級企業嗎?可能不會了,我同意,社會在這方面浪費了很多的聰明才智。社交媒體應用軟件領域已經擁擠不堪,很多企業都會倒閉。 |
????2. Furthermore, Europe has a forced severance pay system that fails to recognize the high risk environment in which startups operate. It is hard to provision for forced severance payments but if you don't you can end up indebted to the government for the rest of your life. What Europe needs is a special regime for angel backed companies. I propose that all companies with less than 10 employees, that are not profitable and that are younger than 3 years, do not pay employment taxes nor forced severance pay. ????3. Finally, there should truly be no personal liability for the entrepreneurs of these companies and an ability to declare personal bankruptcy as there is in USA. Facebook just opened its first non-US engineering office and they did so in London. Google just opened a startup incubator in East London hosting four different incubators including TechHub who in turn will host dozens of startups. Is London rising to the startup challenge more than other cities? ????The Cameron administration so far has not cracked the growth and employment situation at the macro level and UK is hurting as an economy. But 10 Downing is doing an amazing job at attracting top tech companies to set up shop in the UK. I have been invited to quite a few events in which George Osborne the Chancellor, David Cameron the PM and even Prince Andrew personally entertained and addressed global entrepreneurs to convince them to invest in the UK. ????At this point I would say that London is the best city in Europe to start a new company. On the negative there are the high costs with London being a very expensive city. ????While the UK offers an entrepreneur visa in which non EU entrepreneurs can quickly move to the UK to start a business there is no easy visa system for the remainder of the employees. So a US-based entrepreneur can move to London easily but can't easily bring her top managers to the UK. You interact with both Silicon Valley firms and Wall Street banks -- how do you see this dynamic unfolding right now? In particular, given the recent downturn in many of the recent IPOs? ????Recently, at the Allen and Company conference in Sun Valley I had a chance to observe on a first hand basis the disconnect that exists between Silicon Valley and Wall Street and recent tech valuations demonstrate this. For people like Marc Andreessen, Reid Hoffman, Mark Zuckerberg, Sergey Brin, Tim Cook and other top SV entrepreneurs present in Sun Valley there is a sense that people in Wall Street just "don't get tech." ????Silicon valley leaders are frustrated that companies such as Apple and Google are trading at historical low P/E especially when you strip these companies of cash which they accumulate at astonishing rates. A case in point Apple with its $100 billion in cash. Why should companies that grow earnings at 20% a year be given P/E ratios of 11 when interest rates are close to 0? This makes no sense to the SV entrepreneurs. And they have a point. ????At the same time, the heads of the largest investment firms in the world, mostly based in NYC, also present in Sun Valley seem to be from another planet. It's as if Silicon Valley entrepreneurs are from Mars and Wall Street investors are from Venus. Wall Street investors reaction is that "tech is a fad" and who knows for how long Apple and Google will sustain their earnings growth. They look at Facebook and they wonder who will MySpace them next. While SV entrepreneurs believe they are there to change the world for good, Wall Street looks at them and say, "today is you, tomorrow is the next star: we are not giving you a high P/E Apple, tomorrow somebody will turn you into the next Nokia, your margins will shrink, your innovation spirit will disappear." Wall Street may be right. Many entrepreneurs focus on social media startups -- yet there are grand challenges that get less attention -- will this continue in this way? ????The attraction of social media is that it is a huge growing business with very low barriers to entry. Think of the investment that took Yahoo (YHOO) to get started, that took Google to get started, that even took Youtube to get started and compare that to the tiny amount of money that took Instagram to get started. So the dream is that the next 12 guys with an app can build a company in a few years and sell for a billion. But the problem is, there are a million guys with the same dream and only 12 can win the prize. ????Can many new billion dollar businesses build as apps for iPhone and Android? Probably not. I agree that a lot of talent is being wasted this way. The field of social media apps is overcrowded and there will be a lot of write-offs. |